US initial jobless claims rose to 206k for the Aug 29 week, up 2k from prior and just above the 205k forecast, yet still historically low. The 4-week average edged to 207.25k, while continuing claims hit 1.779m and the insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%. Claims signal minimal layoffs, but hiring is tepid – a "hire slow, fire slow" market. July payrolls fell 23k; average monthly gains this year ~61k, far below 2023-24's ~166k.
Following the data and dovish Fed comments, markets priced a 56% chance of a September rate pause, with 41% for a hike. The dollar softened, giving a slight lift to gold and crypto. Focus now shifts to Friday's August jobs report: nonfarm payrolls expected +65k, unemployment seen ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1% – a critical gauge of whether cooling deepens or stabilizes.
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#USWeeklyInitialJoblessClaimsRiseTo206000
Following the data and dovish Fed comments, markets priced a 56% chance of a September rate pause, with 41% for a hike. The dollar softened, giving a slight lift to gold and crypto. Focus now shifts to Friday's August jobs report: nonfarm payrolls expected +65k, unemployment seen ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1% – a critical gauge of whether cooling deepens or stabilizes.
$TWT
$ONG
$CHIP
#USWeeklyInitialJoblessClaimsRiseTo206000