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还是延续老话题——黄金能不能买？
从10月24日开了这个系列话题之后，后续的走势基本跟我的预期一致，周五黄金收盘在3800美元附近，且小时级别并未出现明显的反弹以及止跌信号，意味着抛压还未完全消除
而延续此前我的观点，宏观上高利率压制与5%无风险利率的压制下，黄金很容易被压制与吸血，在11月下旬到12月议息会议宏观压力未解除之前，黄金关键是要守住3950低点，而周五显然快速跌破 #hottrendingtopics #黄金能不能买
盘面来看，宏观压力未解除下跌破新低下方回调概率与风险必然大大增加，目前来看2025年黄金的主升浪快速突破拉升，简单拉了一个斐波那契回撤指标，有效技术面支撑可能会在3500美元附近。
所以，接下来对于黄金需要观察三方面：
a，技术面，有效支撑在哪？何时止跌，从小时级别到日线级别，慢慢看
b，宏观面，看11月下旬到12月议息会议前能否有所缓和，加息预期以及加息周期的预期是否减弱，关键要看Brent能否跌回95美元下方，这是宏观核心。
c，短期，周五的黄金抛售是因为美股剧烈波动导致杠杆仓位风险大大增加，不少此前的黄金持有者此时选择套现补充保证金，这也是近1年多次出现的情况，所以短期要看美股的波动风险何时解除，当然，危险解除并不意味着黄金可以快速反弹开启趋势，后续大概率要看震荡。
盘面上，下周整周时间要看日线能否反弹站位4000上方，如果没有有效站稳或者反弹很快回落，就要继续警惕回调风险，下方需要找到有效支撑！
至于能不能买，低倍杠杆或者现货交易，可以参考贴图，我此前10月24日的推文，按照分仓比例买入，防止踏空。

Crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments examined the CLARITY Act’s place in Washington’s digital asset policy debate as lawmakers consider how crypto markets should be supervised. Zach Pandl, Grayscale Head of Research, outlined the bill’s role in shaping digital asset regulation on May 7.
Rather than treating the legislation as a narrow policy update, Pandl described CLARITY as a broad market structure bill. He wrote that it would clarify which federal regulator oversees which activities. The proposal would create a framework separating investment contracts from digital commodities. Under that approach, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would regulate investment contracts, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would oversee digital commodities. The Grayscale head of research stated:
That enforcement-led approach has shaped Grayscale’s view of the bill’s importance. Pandl wrote that tens of billions of dollars in regulatory fines have been paid. He also said many potential participants have avoided crypto due to fears of regulatory backlash, even as the market expanded into a multi-trillion-dollar ecosystem.
Developers, investors, exchanges, brokers, custodians, and asset issuers would all be affected, according to Grayscale. Developers would receive clearer guidance for structuring and launching projects. Investors would face less legal uncertainty around ownership and project outlook. Trading venues, brokers, and custodians would gain clearer registration paths.
Asset issuers would also face more defined requirements for token distribution and ongoing compliance. Regulators, in Grayscale’s view, would operate within a clearer framework instead of relying on fragmented enforcement decisions. Pandl presented that structure as central to reducing uncertainty across digital asset markets.
Public pressure has also entered the Senate debate. Stand With Crypto delivered a petition with more than 28,000 signatures to Washington on April 30, urging the Senate Banking Committee to mark up the CLARITY Act. A survey released on May 7 found 52% of voters supported the bill after reviewing a neutral summary, while 70% said the United States should already have passed clear crypto legislation. Committee timing sharpened after the Senate Banking Committee scheduled a May 14 executive session to consider H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025.
Passage remains uncertain, despite renewed movement in Washington. Pandl cited Polymarket odds giving the CLARITY Act a 67% chance of passing in 2026. The bill still must advance through the Senate Banking Committee, pass the full Senate, and win approval from both chambers. Grayscale said meaningful progress before the July recess would be important to maintain momentum.
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