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Bitcoin’s current derivatives and positioning regime closely resemble late-2022 bear market conditions, typically followed by prolonged consolidation rather than immediate recovery, according to K33.
Bitcoin's
BTC-1.09%
current market structure closely resembles the late stages of the 2022 bear market, with derivatives positioning, exchange-traded fund flows, and macro indicators signaling a prolonged consolidation phase rather than an imminent breakout, according to research and brokerage firm K33
In a new report late Tuesday, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said its proprietary regime indicator, which incorporates derivatives yields, open interest, ETF flows, and macro inputs such as the U.S. yield curve, shows "strikingly strong similarities" to periods in September and November 2022 — both near the global bottom of that downturn.
However, while those historical regimes marked market lows, they were followed by extended stretches of sluggish price action, producing muted forward returns and lengthy consolidation periods, Lunde noted.
Bitcoin has already fallen sharply from recent highs, shedding nearly 28% since January, while broader derivatives signals show defensive positioning, according to K33. Funding rates have remained negative for more than 11 consecutive days, and notional open interest fell below 260,000 BTC, reflecting investors unwinding long positions, Lunde said. This positioning, combined with declining leverage, suggests a low near-term risk of derivatives-driven squeezes, he added.
Consolidation rather than immediate recovery
K33 said its model assigns the greatest weight to derivatives data, which reflects real-time demand for hedging or upside exposure. Negative yields signal excess hedging demand, while falling open interest indicates traders exiting positions rather than building new directional bets. The current regime, Lunde said, aligns with environments historically associated with market bottoms but not rapid recoveries.
The firm noted that similar historical regimes delivered average 90-day returns of roughly 3% in strongly similar environments and slightly negative returns in moderately similar ones, underscoring the likelihood of slow, discouraging consolidation. Lunde expects bitcoin to trade between $60,000 and $75,000 for a prolonged duration, describing current entry levels as attractive while emphasizing the need for patience.
RELATED INDICES
Market activity has cooled significantly following recent sell-offs. Bitcoin spot trading volumes dropped 59% week over week, while futures open interest declined to four-month lows — behavior consistent with markets absorbing losses and stabilizing after major drawdowns, the firm noted. Volatility has begun to normalize as prices stabilized, further supporting expectations for a quieter trading environment, Lunde said.
Institutional positioning also reflects similar caution, according to the report.
Institutional traders on CME have remained largely inactive, with muted yields and shallow open interest reflecting limited directional conviction. Meanwhile, bitcoin exchange-traded products have seen a record drawdown of 103,113 BTC from peak holdings since October, though roughly 93% of peak exposure remains intact despite bitcoin retracing nearly 50% over the same period. This suggests institutional investors have reduced exposure but largely maintained positions through the downturn, Lunde said.
Meanwhile, sentiment indicators highlight extreme pessimism but offer limited predictive value, in the analyst's view. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently hit an all-time low of 5, reflecting widespread fear, though he noted that such readings historically have not reliably signaled strong rebounds.
Buying bitcoin during extreme fear has produced average 90-day returns of just 2.4%, compared with 95% when buying during extreme greed, underscoring that extreme fear does not reliably signal strong rebounds, Lunde said.
K33 concluded that bitcoin's current market regime shares key characteristics with late bear market environments, suggesting downside risks may be limited, but recovery could take time, echoing the drawn-out stabilization phase that followed the 2022 bottom.
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#Altcoins!
#FactCheck
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#Kriptocutrader .

The market is rotating again — and smart money is quietly positioning into three emerging alpha plays: FHE, SIREN, and INIT. While retail is distracted by old narratives, these tokens are building strong structural momentum that could fuel the next explosive wave.

🔥🌋 Why These Three Are Turning Bullish🌪️🌪️
#FactCheck
TRADE NOW HERE👇👇
🧠 FHE/USDT — Smart Money Accumulation
🔹 Buy Zones (Spot)
🟢 Entry 1: $0.038 – $0.041
🟢 Entry 2 (deep): $0.033 – $0.035
🎯 Take Profit Ladder
TP1: $0.048
TP2: $0.055
TP3: $0.064
🛑 Stop Loss
$0.029
📊 Setup Logic: Range accumulation → breakout potential if volume expands.

TRADE NOW WITH HIGH POTENTIAL 👇👇
🌊 SIREN/USDT — Compression Before Expansion
🔹 Buy Zones (Spot)
🟢 Entry 1: $0.082 – $0.088
🟢 Entry 2 (deep): $0.072 – $0.076
🎯 Take Profit Ladder
TP1: $0.102
TP2: $0.118
TP3: $0.135
🛑 Stop Loss
$0.064
📊 Setup Logic: Tight volatility squeeze — breakout traders watching.

TRADE NOW WITH CONFIDENCE 👇👇
⚡ INIT/USDT — Early Momentum Structure
🔹 Buy Zones (Spot)
🟢 Entry 1: $0.215 – $0.225
🟢 Entry 2 (deep): $0.195 – $0.205
🎯 Take Profit Ladder
TP1: $0.255
TP2: $0.285
TP3: $0.325
🛑 Stop Loss
$0.178
📊 Setup Logic: Higher-low formation → momentum rotation candidate.
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$FHE X $SIREN X $INIT
🧩 My Personal Trading Edge (Binance Square Style)
✅ Scale in — don’t full-port first entry
✅ Take partial profits at TP1
✅ Move SL to breakeven after TP1
✅ Watch BTC volatility before alt entries

O que você precisa saber
O Bitcoin não tem tido um bom desempenho ultimamente, com a principal criptomoeda agora cerca de 45% abaixo de seu pico de outubro, com um preço recente acima de US$ 69.000 — mas os analistas apostam que haverá mais sofrimento no curto prazo antes de uma possível recuperação.
#bitcoin #CRİPTO #TradeCryptosOnX
A CryptoQuant se juntou ao grupo crescente esta semana, prevendo um "fundo definitivo do mercado de baixa" acima de US$ 55.000. Esse é o preço realizado para o BTC, que, segundo os analistas da empresa, "historicamente tem sido uma importante área de suporte de preço em mercados de baixa anteriores".
#FactCheck $BTC
A Galaxy projetou recentemente um possível piso de US$ 58.000, enquanto o Standard Chartered estimou uma queda para US$ 50.000. Mas alguns analistas são ainda mais pessimistas, com a empresa de serviços financeiros Stifel afirmando recentemente que o Bitcoin poderia cair para até US$ 38.000.

Post at least one original piece of content on Binance Square using our Article Editor, with a length of more than 500 characters. The post must mention the project account @fogo, tag token $FOGO, and use the hashtag #fogo. The content must be strongly related to Fogo and must be original, not copied or duplicated. This task is ongoing and refreshes daily until the end of the campaign and will not be marked as completed$BTC #FactCheck

A photo circulating online has ignited intense debate after users claimed it shows a high-profile gathering in Singapore involving global political figures and controversial names linked to the late Jeffrey Epstein. Social media narratives quickly escalated, suggesting the image signals an expansion of Epstein’s alleged trafficking network into Asia 🇸🇬💥.
But here’s where reality matters.
📸 What’s Being Claimed Online?
Viral posts allege:
The bald man in the center is Singapore’s current President, Tharman Shanmugaratnam
Bill Clinton is intentionally positioned in the background
Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell are portrayed as central figures
The gathering supposedly implies Epstein-linked operations extending into Singapore 🐕‍🦺
These claims spread rapidly across X, Telegram, and crypto-focused communities — fueled by growing distrust in elites and institutions.
🧠 What Do Verified Sources Say?
As of now:
❌ No credible evidence confirms Epstein or Maxwell were involved in any organized activity in Singapore
❌ No official records or investigative reports link Singapore’s leadership to Epstein
❌ The photo itself lacks verified context, date, or source authentication
Experts warn that misidentified images and narrative stacking are a common tactic in viral misinformation cycles — especially in emotionally charged topics tied to Epstein.
🌐 Why Do These Stories Gain So Much Traction?
In the post-Epstein era, public skepticism is at all-time highs. Combine that with:
AI-generated or miscaptioned images
Algorithm-driven outrage amplification
Market uncertainty and geopolitical tension
…and narratives like this spread fast 📈⚡
Crypto and financial communities are particularly sensitive to elite-misconduct stories, as they often intersect with discussions around transparency, decentralization, and trustless systems.
⚠️ A Critical Reminder for Investors & Readers
Unverified claims can:
Damage reputations unfairly
Trigger regulatory scrutiny
Distract markets with noise instead of signal
Smart participants separate documented facts from viral speculation — especially in high-stakes environments like crypto and global finance.
🧩 Final Thoughts 🤔
The Epstein case remains one of the darkest chapters in recent history, but not every viral image tells the truth. Until verified evidence emerges, claims linking Singapore or its leadership to Epstein’s crimes should be treated with caution.
In an era of instant virality, critical thinking is the real alpha 🧠📊
#ViralClaims 🔍#FactCheck ✔️#Marketpsychology 📊#MisinformationAlert ⚠️#DigitalTruth 🔐
$BTC
$ETH
$BTCDOM

A viral claim circulating online suggests that newly released U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) documents somehow link Jeffrey Epstein to Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin. The theory is fueled by screenshots showing the name “Satoshi” appearing multiple times in documents, Epstein’s past connections with academics and tech investors, and his donation history. However, when examined closely, the evidence does not support the claim
Why “Satoshi” Appears in DOJ Documents
The DOJ files reportedly mention the word “Satoshi” multiple times, but this is not unusual. In legal, academic, and financial documents, “Satoshi” is commonly used as:
A unit of Bitcoin (1 satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC)
A reference to Bitcoin’s creator in a general or academic context
There is no indication that these mentions identify a real individual or link them to Epstein personally.
Epstein and MIT’s Digital Currency Initiative
Epstein donated approximately $525,000 to MIT’s Digital Currency Initiative (DCI) between 2013 and 2017. This fact is real and publicly acknowledged by MIT. However:
MIT has confirmed that Epstein was not involved in research direction
DCI researchers have explicitly stated that Epstein had no connection to Bitcoin’s creation
Bitcoin was released in 2008, while Epstein’s documented involvement with DCI came years later
Timeline Mismatch
Bitcoin’s whitepaper was published in October 2008, and Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared from public communication by 2011. Epstein’s known tech-related interactions and donations occurred after this period. There is no overlap that supports the theory.
The Viral Screenshot Problem
The screenshot spreading online lacks:
Verifiable sourcing
Context for how the term “Satoshi” is used
Any direct attribution to Epstein
This is a classic example of context collapse, where real words are shown without explanation to imply something false.
Conclusion
There is no credible evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was Satoshi Nakamoto. The claim relies on coincidence, misunderstanding of terminology, and misleading presentation of unrelated facts. At present, Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity remains unknown, and Epstein is not considered a serious candidate by cryptographers, historians, or blockchain researchers
Verdict: FALSE ❌
#FactCheck #satoshiNakamato #Epstein #DigitalCurrency #Binance