enaunlock

The popular take this week is that Ethena's fee switch takes the sting out of the 5 Oct unlock. I read the schedule, and the numbers don't back that up yet.
On 27 Aug the Foundation said all remaining investor tokens release on 5 Oct. Ethena doesn't state the size. Tokenomist works it out at about 1.406B ENA, with a 93.75M team tranche the same day. At roughly $0.25 to $0.27 that is around $350M to $380M, noticeably more than the $212M headline at the old $0.151 price.
Here is what I checked. The switch only diverts revenue once USDe reaches $7.5B. USDe was about $4.07B in late August, so my arithmetic says it needs roughly 84% growth before anything flows. Even the first tier is $22.5M a year in Ethena's own table, while team and Foundation vesting runs about 134M ENA a month, around $20.3M a month at $0.151. The first-tier buyback covers about 9% of one year of that vesting. Blockworks Advisory, which sits on Ethena's Risk Committee, says the schedule pays nothing at today's supply. Elsewhere, Jupiter spent over $70M on buybacks in 2025 and JUP was still about 89% below its peak by January.
What bothers me is the locked share. Ethena says about 12% stays locked, but its own vesting schedule implies 22.8%. One source also says the StablecoinX lockup, about 20% of supply, lifts on 5 Oct too, 3.03B tokens. That source carries referral links and I couldn't confirm it. If it's true, this is a different trade. I'm reading the SEC filing next. I also can't tell who is left holding after the Foundation bought out investors who sold after the 10 Oct 2025 peak, since stake sizes and prices weren't published.
If you're thinking of trading it: funding averages +0.0262% per 8h across 32 venues, so longs are paying into a dated supply event of about 14% of circulating. For it to make sense I'd want identified investor wallets staying off exchanges for the first 72 hours, with OI and funding not collapsing. I'd stay out if those wallets deposit, if the StablecoinX unlock is confirmed with sales, or if USDe keeps shrinking. I have no Binance depth or levels, so I'm giving none. If you trade it anyway, keep size small, because leverage makes gap risk worse..
My position: I hold $ENA. Light selling after the unlock would change my mind about the staying-out part.
Has anyone found the StablecoinX lockup end date in the SEC filing?
NFA
#ENAUnlock #Ethena #USDe