🚨 100 OUT OF 100 EXPECT A FED HIKE. BUT THE US HOUSING MARKET JUST HIT A RECORD LOW.
Something doesn't add up.
🇺🇸 Two major developments hit the market today.
1️⃣ THE FED SURPRISE
A new Reuters poll reveals:
• 94 of 100 economists expect rates to remain unchanged in October.
• ALL 100 expect a rate hike in December.
• Last month, fewer than half expected a December increase.
That's a dramatic shift in expectations.
2️⃣ THE HOUSING COLLAPSE
Meanwhile, US pending home sales just plunged:
📉 Actual: −7.3% month-over-month
📊 Expected: −0.5%
⚠️ Surprise: −6.8 percentage points
The index fell to 66.0 — its LOWEST level since records began in 2001.
And mortgage rates are around 7.4%.
Now here's the problem.
The Fed is fighting inflation while higher borrowing costs are crushing housing demand.
🛢 Expensive oil adds inflation pressure.
🏠 Housing weakness signals economic stress.
🏦 Higher rates could tighten financial conditions even further.
MY TAKE:
I'm not convinced the market can keep ignoring this contradiction.
But weak housing data doesn't automatically mean
$BTC will fall — or that the Fed will reverse course.
For
$ETH and
$BTC , I'll be watching Treasury yields, DXY and Nasdaq before drawing conclusions.
The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28.
🔥 What breaks first?
Inflation, the housing market, or the Fed's tightening expectations?
#FedPolicy #HousingCrisis #CryptoMacro