马克Mark-

Federal Reserve July Decision: Don’t bet on the outcome—watch the wording

At 2:00 a.m. Thursday, the Fed will release its interest rate decision.
Cut rates or not?
The market has basically priced it in:
Most likely, it will hold steady.
What truly drives the move isn’t the rate number.
It’s how a few words in the statement are changed.
There are three areas that matter most:

1. How inflation is described
If it still says: inflation remains elevated → Markets interpret it as hawkish, and rate-cut expectations keep waiting.
If it changes to: inflation is making further progress → More dovish; the market will start pricing a September cut early.

2. How employment is described
If it stays: the labor market remains strong → Neutral.
If it becomes: the labor market is moving toward balance → Markets may read this as the Fed starting to focus on employment risk.

3. The risk of the dual mandate
The key question now is: what does the Fed worry about more—inflation, or jobs?
If it emphasizes inflation risks: → Hawkish.
If it emphasizes pressure on employment: → Dovish.

My personal view:
The statement may include a slightly more dovish adjustment.
But Powell’s remarks are unlikely to directly confirm a September rate cut.
More likely, it will be: leave room in the text, and keep a cautious tone in public comments.

$BTC How should it be viewed?
If dovish: pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields may ease. Risk assets could rebound.
BTC focus: the 66–67K zone.

If neutral: the market will keep waiting for data.
BTC likely: digesting via range trading.

If unexpectedly hawkish: risk assets may come under pressure first.
BTC key level to watch: support around 63K.

Don’t pick sides too early.
Wait for the 2:00 a.m. statement and see how the first wave of money votes.
At 2:30, after Powell speaks, watch whether the market changes direction.
What the Fed meeting fears most isn’t the outcome.
It’s:
The market getting the direction wrong too early. #Fed to release interest rate decision early Thursday #美联储利率决议即将公布

Many people haven’t experienced a bull market before, and their perspective isn’t big enough. Today, I’m here to open your mindset. If we come into this circle, it’s to make gains of dozens of times, even hundreds of times—not to run off after a profit of just a few percentage points.

Here are a few examples to make you realize how fast and concentrated an upward move can be:

CHZ: From February to March 2021, it grew 30x in one month

BNB: On Feb 20, 2021, it grew 8x within 20 days

DOT: From January to February 2021, it grew 8x in two months

SUSHI: In January 2021, it grew 6x within one month

AAVE: In January 2021, it grew 6x within one month

HOT: From February to March 2021, it grew 35x in two months

JOE: In August 2021, it grew 60x within two weeks

In January 2021, DOGE jumped nearly 10x in a single day—it was already a billion-dollar token back then

THETA’s market cap rose from $1B to $12B within three months

RUNE’s market cap increased from $200M to nearly $5B within five months

FIL once reached an FDV close to $400B

ICP had an FDV of $250B at launch

AXS’s market cap rose from $200M to $10B in 5 months; its FDV peaked at $43B

GALA’s market cap reached $5.4B at the peak of 2021, while at the beginning of the year the project’s market cap was only $5M

TEL’s market cap rose from $10M to $30B (300x) in 5 months

If this is your first market cycle, you’re likely to enter the market too late, causing your investment to skyrocket on irrational valuations without realizing profits in time—and then you’ll keep oscillating among many different gains. But if you’ve read this article, chances are you’ve already experienced the previous cycle and made it through the mid-point adjustments during the particularly brutal bull market of 2025. In a bear market, you have to stay alert for every upward move and be ready to short whenever some altcoin starts rising due to some catalyst. That kind of behavior gets rewarded. But in a bull market, everything changes completely: the coin rallies much higher than you think it will. You have to be prepared to benefit from it.
$BTC $ETH

This time it isn’t a sudden reversal of face—it's been writing its fatigue on the chart all along. Yesterday afternoon when I was watching the market, $NIGHT kept grinding around the high range, repeatedly pushing higher like it was short by the last breath. Volume never kept up; even when it pushed up, nobody was willing to take it. The more I looked, the more it looked like a breakdown after a “liquidity grab” (bait) and subsequent loosening.

I placed the SHORT around 0.0220200. This wasn’t an impulse triggered by seeing a single bearish candle; it was based on first spotting overhead suppression, then waiting for the rebound strength to keep weakening. The feedback provided in this NIGHT segment was very direct: the current price has already come back to 0.0194200. The profit from this round of short trades shows +267.62%—the timing was spot on.

Big gains first go into the pocket: close 80% first, and keep the remaining 20% as a protective position near the entry cost. If there’s still room for further downside, just hold along with it. And if there’s a rebound, I won’t let the profit become uncomfortable. Position management matters more than emotions.

The market is something you wait for, and profits are something you hold onto. For friends who haven’t boarded yet, take my word for it: this is not the time to rush. Don’t chase into a spot that’s already moved past just because you see the outcome—wait for the next shot to come, which will feel even more comfortable.

$BTC $ETH

That little smash just now finally tore the cover off the board. When the market was first smashed in the early session, $TLM was still up in the high range, probing over and over. On the surface it looked like it was building up strength, but in reality every time it tried to surge upward there wasn’t sustained buying pressure. Once the price bumped into resistance, it was pulled back. What I saw was insufficient support, not a strong breakout.

At the time I watched TLM’s rhythm. Around 0.0019249 I executed a SHORT. The logic was simple: if the rebound doesn’t go well, volume doesn’t follow through, and the sell pressure above is heavy, then don’t chase that bit of fake strength. Now the price is at 0.0016500, and the short position has already delivered +334.54%. This profit has been firmly secured.

First close 80%. Keep the remaining 20%, move the protection level to around the entry cost, and if it keeps pressing down, let the profit run. If it bounces back, don’t give back what you’ve already taken. Profit isn’t made by being greedy for the very last bite—cash-in is the real win.

If you missed this leg, don’t rush to add. Chasing higher easily gets you trapped at the top. Have a plan before the session, keep discipline during the session. When the next clear structure shows up, then act—there are still opportunities. Don’t be in a hurry.

$BTC $ETH

I was just thinking about going to the forum to curse people, but then I looked at the chart—forget it. $BLESS this time really did deliver the answer. While everyone was still watching and waiting, I noticed that every time the price dipped, it could be pulled back; the buy orders were quietly building up. After the retest, the support/acceptance was more decisive than before. Seeing that BLESS didn’t break the structure, I prompted LONG. My entry reference was around 0.0078789—plan first, then wait for the direction to confirm.

Now the current price is at 0.0086950, and the floating profit on the long position is +375.53%. It was frustrating before, but once it finally moved, it was really satisfying. Handle 70% of the position first; keep the remaining 30% protected near the cost basis. If it continues upward, be patient and let it run. If you see a clear pullback, don’t get stuck fighting it.

Even if you only make one point—if you can take profit away, that’s yours. If you haven’t boarded yet, don’t rush to add tickets. Wait for the next shot when a new structure forms, and I’ll give you a heads-up right away.

$BTC $ETH

Did nothing—just went to the restroom. When I came back, the candlestick chart had already done the work for me. During the choppy back-and-forth in the session, $ON kept holding above the key support/continuation level without ever breaking down. Even when it pulled back a few times, it was quickly picked up again. The bottom consolidation became steadier instead of weaker. At the time, I judged it wasn’t weak—rather, the selling pressure was being gradually digested. So I provided a LONG setup around 0.1491900, gave it some time, and told myself not to get scared off by a few small red candles.

Now the price has reached 0.1627700. This batch of longs shows a profit of +424.21%—the timing was spot on, and it’s genuinely comfortable. First, close 70%. Keep the remaining 30% for observation. Move the stop/protection level up to around the break-even (cost) price. If there’s still momentum, let the profits run on their own. If it turns and drops, it still won’t force me to give back the gains already locked in.

Panic happens because there was no plan. Loss happens because you overthink. This isn’t a time to rush in—chasing the price upward can get you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next round, for a more comfortable entry level.

$BTC $ETH

I was still working out last night whether this move had any real chance. But when I opened the chart today, the shorts had already cleanly removed all the high-level fake strength.

In my last glance before bed, $SYN was still hovering back and forth in the pressure zone. What I saw, though, was price going up with no buyers stepping in, volume not keeping up, and the pullback speeding up more and more. The market hasn’t truly turned strong. So around 0.2019999, I set up a SHORT, waiting only for the fulfillment after the support loosens.

When the price reached 0.1438000, my current post-trade review result is +403.45%. The most comfortable part of this trade isn’t guessing every single K-line—it’s that I wasn’t led astray by those false rebounds.

If it’s time to take profit, take it. I’ll close 80%, and place the remaining 20% as a protection at around the cost basis. If the market keeps dropping, let the profit run on its own; if there’s a rebound, I can’t hand back the portion that was already realized.

Keep gains from getting too inflated, and don’t let pullbacks turn into despair. Right now don’t chase just because you see a drop—missed entries aren’t supposed to be chased. Wait for the next wave’s signal and a steadier rhythm.

$BTC $ETH

This wasn’t a sudden moment of bravery. It was because once it turned out nobody up there was really taking the calls, only then did the short side push the door open.

After just watching the negative news, a lot of people were staring at that little rebound thinking about chasing it. But I noticed that when HANA started rising, it had endless momentum, while sell pressure kept pressing down from above. The price would spike up a bit, then immediately retreat. So I gave the SHORT signal around 0.0433300—what I was watching was the failure of the rebound, not betting on it dropping right away.

Now that $HANA has returned to 0.0299600, it’s landed at +446.28%. This trade finally didn’t wait in vain. The more it drags on beforehand, the more it tests execution. Once it truly starts, you actually don’t need to keep operating frequently.

First, close 80%. For the remaining 20%, move the protection line to around the cost basis. If it keeps selling off, keep holding. If it bounces back, at least the main positions and initiative have already been reclaimed.

Panic happens because there was no plan. Loss happens because you overthink. If you haven’t joined in yet, don’t rush after the price—wait until a new structure forms, then move. There are still opportunities. Don’t be in a hurry.

$BTC $ETH

I originally just wanted to catch a quick breakfast, but the order book basically handed the rhythm straight to my hands. When I first smashed the market early on, $LA looked scary—yet instead I kept my eyes on the low-level support: the pullback didn’t break down, the selling pressure gradually eased, and there were always people taking bids below. After I saw the price stabilize around 0.056240, I gave the signal to go LONG. I wasn’t chasing the spike to grab at it—I waited for the structure to confirm before boarding. Now the price has reached 0.073530, and the long position is up +470.03% in floating profit. This piece of meat is eaten so comfortably.

First, take the big chunk off the table and take profit on 70%. For the remaining 30%, move the protective stop to around the cost basis. Keep pushing higher—just let the profits run. And if it pulls back, don’t let the gains turn back into pressure again.

Market moves are something you wait for; profits are something you hold onto. For friends who haven’t gotten in yet, listen to me: don’t rush to chase just because you see the price rising. Let the next round of signals come out before you act—there are still opportunities. Don’t be in a hurry.

$BTC $ETH

Who would have thought that the quietest chart would move first? When it seemed like this round was completely done for, $APR suddenly swept away the dullness at the lower levels. What looked like ordinary sideways action earlier later became the starting point for the bulls to regroup and build strength again.

Before the market fully kicked off, I noticed that after an APR pullback, price quickly rebounded and held steady. Repeated tests did not break the bottom, and capital started to inch back in. Based on this shift, I gave a LONG prompt at the time and followed near 0.1581999—without chasing the trade just because there was a sudden spike.

Now the price has reached 0.2053000, and it’s up +458.84%. This wait was definitely not in vain. Position management is already set: 70% will be taken off the table first, and the remaining 30% will have its stop moved up to the entry cost. If the trend continues, we’ll be patient and hold; if it pulls back, we’ll prioritize protecting the gains already made.

Being out of the market isn’t a crime—opening positions recklessly is. It’s better to miss one opportunity than to be the last one buying at the highs. Don’t rush to add tickets now. Wait for the new structure to form, and once the signals become clear again, reassess. Stay tuned—there will be more chances ahead.

$BTC $ETH

I originally just wanted to check the order book, but once I looked, the sleepiness was gone. When the price kept oscillating in the middle of the session, $ZHIPU didn’t keep sinking as the shorts imagined. Each time the price returned to the lower level, someone was picking it up. After the rebound, it also managed to stand back up again.

At the time, I was focused on ZHIPU. Seeing that the support zone kept proving effective, and that the buying power was gradually strengthening, I concluded that this looked more like accumulation than a move without direction. That moment was a signal for LONG. The entry reference was 116.13000—what matters isn’t chasing, but waiting for the structure to confirm.

Now the price has reached 163.92000. Looking back, the profit is recorded as +582.39%. This long trade finally gave clear feedback. First, take profit on 70% and put the bigger portion into your pocket. Protect the remaining 30% at the cost price—if it keeps strengthening, let the gains extend; if it pulls back, you won’t feel uncomfortable all over again.

Panic happens because there was no plan. Losses happen because you think too much. If you put risk control in place upfront, then you earn the right to wait for the next opportunity. For friends who haven’t boarded yet, let me say this: don’t rush just because you see a surge. Wait for the next wave’s signal and a steadier setup. Opportunities are still there—don’t be in a hurry.

$BTC $ETH

I originally planned to take a break after the close, but I didn’t expect this intraday plunge—it directly turned the previous waiting into realized results.

When the price repeatedly oscillated during the session, $SPCX looked quite lively, but every time it surged upward, there wasn’t sustained buy-side support. When the price hit resistance, it fell back. I didn’t try to guess the bottom, nor did I chase and shout. After the rebound showed signs of weakness and confirmation, I executed a SHORT around 122.74000.

Then the price moved to 114.35000, and the profit display showed +547.54%. This time, I nailed the rhythm. The longer the market chops sideways at high levels, the less it means you’re safer—it mainly comes down to who is taking the bids and who is applying the pressure.

First, close 80% of the short position. Keep the remaining 20% as protection at the cost price. If the downside continues, let the profit extend; if there’s a rebound, only keep a controlled position—don’t get greedy and grab the last bite.

Even if it’s just one point profit, as long as you can take it away, it’s yours. Even if unrealized gains look huge, they’re only what the chart temporarily gives you. Don’t force it if you miss this leg—wait for the next setup when the structure is clear.

$BTC $ETH

$ERA Just switched the software to the background, and when I came back, the price had already had the answer written on the order book by the shorts.

Yesterday afternoon I watched ERA and noticed that every time it rebounded, it couldn’t hold its ground. The moment sell orders appeared, it just went weak, and there wasn’t any clear increase in trading volume to back it up. At that time, I judged that the overhead pressure at the high level was still there, so I set up a SHORT around 0.0947399—waiting for this directional release.

From 0.0947399 to 0.0725600, the current result is +765.88%. This wasn’t forced by guts; it was because once I saw that the bids couldn’t keep up, I executed the short plan and held it.

First, take the bulk of the profit off the table—close 80% first. Move the stop-loss on the remaining 20% up to around the cost basis. If it continues to weaken, let the remaining profit ride with the trend; if it suddenly bounces back, I won’t allow the gains to turn back into pressure.

Risk control is done upfront—that’s called being rational. Cutting losses after they happen is passive. This isn’t the time to rush. The market isn’t short of opportunities; what it lacks is patience.

$BTC $ETH

Just took a sip of coffee, and the chart gave me a first strike—a warning shot. Ironically, the empty order (short) ended up taking over the rhythm.

In the early session when I saw the market dump, I noticed that $ACE bounced without volume confirmation. The overhead resistance didn’t loosen either. Every time the price tried upward, it just couldn’t quite make it. The order book looked more like a pullback after insufficient follow-through.

At around 0.122290, I alerted to execute SHORT—not chasing the drop, but waiting for it to confirm it can’t break higher before acting.

Now the price is at 0.079660, and the floating result sits at +1069.83%. This profit chunk is finally realized. Even though it wore me out earlier, once it moved, it felt smooth.

Close 80% first, and keep the remaining 20% with the protection level near the break-even cost. If it keeps dumping, let the profit run. If it bounces back, don’t give back what you’ve already taken.

No position isn’t a crime—opening trades recklessly is the mistake. If you haven’t boarded yet, don’t rush to chase; wait for the next wave of signals, then look for a more comfortable entry.

$BTC $ETH

This one drop hit so decisively—those who were hesitating just a moment ago instantly understood the chart. When the sell-off was smashed in the early session, $VANRY was already more than just a retest; the prior few spikes lacked matching volume support. Every time the rebound approached a resistance level, it was pushed back down—buy pressure never truly connected.

While everyone was still watching, I went back over VANRY’s performance from the high point down to 0.0050399: volume didn’t keep up, the support was insufficient, and sell pressure above was heavier. Only after the conditions were met did I execute the SHORT. Shorting isn’t just about nerve—the key is waiting for it to first show signs of fatigue.

Now the price is at 0.0039580, and the returns show +545.86%. This stretch has been really satisfying to hold. When it’s time to take profit, take it—don’t wrestle with the final bite.

I’ve already closed 80%. The remaining 20% is protected at the cost basis. If it continues to sell off further, let the profits naturally extend. If there’s a rebound, I won’t let the gains feel uncomfortable. Even if it only takes away a portion—as long as you can hold on—that’s yours. This isn’t the time to rush. Miss it, don’t chase it—wait calmly for the next cycle’s signal.

$BTC $ETH

The real part that feels truly satisfying in this move isn’t that it suddenly pulled—it's that it finally delivered on patience. While others were running, $B2 didn’t keep going bad. Even after the chart repeatedly retraced, it could still be pulled back. The low-level support is more solid than it looks at the surface.

Before sleep last night, I was watching the performance of B2 and noticed that the sell pressure overhead was gradually easing. The buying side didn’t rush in hard, but it kept steadily absorbing. So I judged it could be observed following a long-bull rhythm. The prompt is LONG, and the reference level is around 0.3369000.

Now the quote has reached 0.4348000. The floating result shows +1126.05%, so this time the timing has been nailed. When it’s time to take profit, take it. First, close 70% of the position, and keep the remaining 30% for now. At the same time, move the protective level close to the cost basis—don’t give back the profits you’ve already locked in.

Even if you only make one more point, if you can take it away, then it’s yours. No matter how much floating profit you have, before you actually take profit, it doesn’t truly belong to you. This isn’t the time to chase price higher. If you miss it, just wait for the next round. The market isn’t short of opportunities—what it lacks is patience.

$BTC $ETH

Just as I was about to switch software, the price beat me to it and wrote the answer for me first. When the market was dumping early in the morning, $EPIC looked weak at one point, but the key level wasn’t broken through. A few dips were quickly pulled back, which showed that there’s indeed someone managing it below.

I saw EPIC consolidate at the low end; then the buy-side gradually took the lead. I judged that this wasn’t just a simple rebound, but accumulation/holding strengthening as it slowly thickened. At the time, the planned action was LONG: observe and execute around 0.509500, without changing my mind on a whim after a rally.

Now the price has pushed up to 0.736400. The post-trade review landed at +612.57%. All the time spent waiting earlier wasn’t wasted. Take 70% profit first, put the remaining 30% in protection at cost. If it continues to rise, hold along with the move; if it pulls back, don’t let floating gains turn into pressure.

Don’t grind away your patience in a choppy market while trying to “win back dignity” in a one-direction move. Keep profits from ballooning, and don’t despair when there’s a drawdown. If you didn’t catch the move, don’t chase the spike. Wait for a new structure to form again—I’ll be the first to notify you. The next shot will be saved for a more comfortable position.

$BTC $ETH

I originally planned to shut down the software, but right before bed, one glance managed to wait out a short opportunity. When I was checking the market with my last glance before sleep, $RIF was still repeatedly probing at a high level—unable to move up, yet unwilling to retreat. Many people may mistake this kind of sideways consolidation for strength, but what I saw was that once it went up, nobody was stepping in.

After repeated churning in the chart, it gradually weakened. With every rebound, RIF never quite had enough momentum, and the volume never really picked up. The overhead pressure stayed firm and never loosened. The logic is simple: first wait for the buy-side support to fail, then execute a SHORT around 0.1046599. Don’t chase the price up, and don’t try to predict the exact bottom early.

Now the price has reached 0.0759300, and the profit is +1898.01%. The short finally gave the answer. Don’t treat unrealized profit as savings.

First, close 80% of the position; put the remaining 20% at the cost basis as a safety buffer. If it keeps dropping, patiently follow it. If a rebound appears, hold onto the gains you already have in time. The prerequisite for compounding is staying alive—most “shortcuts to get rich” end with going to zero. If you didn’t catch it, don’t panic. There will be more opportunities later; once a new structure forms, we move again.

$BTC $ETH

This isn’t sudden luck. The chart has exposed the cracks right in front of our eyes. While everyone else was running, I actually paused first: the rebound for $1000XEC is getting shorter, pushing higher is becoming harder, volume isn’t keeping up—indicating there’s pressure above, but not enough support below.

Yesterday afternoon, while observing 1000XEC, I already warned not to be led astray by a few small bullish candles. The bull-trap flavor was strong. When price bounced back near resistance, there wasn’t sustained buying pressure; instead, the bearish window gradually became clearer. So I executed a SHORT around 0.0069479, waiting for this pullback to be realized.

Now price is at 0.0065390, and the return rate shows +125.38%. No wasted watching. Take profit first—don’t let emotions inflate.

For this round, I’ll close 80% now. The remaining 20% will continue to be protected using the cost basis. If the market is willing to keep moving lower, let it run; if it rebounds, I won’t give the profits back. Risk control comes first—that’s called rationality. Cutting losses after they happen is passive. Chasing higher can get you trapped at the mountaintop; watch for the next set of signals instead.

$BTC $ETH

Just finished lunch and watched the chart. I originally thought it would just be ordinary consolidation, but then a single downward push straightened out the direction. During the intraday dip, $IDOL bounced a few times but couldn’t create follow-through. The selling pressure kept pressing from above—prices couldn’t go up because there was no buyer stepping in, while the sell orders became increasingly aggressive.

At the time, I was focusing on the changes in IDOL’s order-book support. Once I saw a low-volume rally and the rebound lacked strength, I knew this wasn’t a place to chase longs. I waited for it to lose momentum before considering a short—it’s steadier that way. Later, around 0.0151799, I executed a SHORT. It wasn’t guessing the bottom or taking a gamble; I just handled it according to the rhythm I saw.

After the price fell back to 0.0147700, my current profit was +142.27%. I hit the timing. The bigger chunk goes first into my pocket.

I’ve already closed 80% of the position. The remaining 20% is held with a cost-basis protection. If it keeps dropping, I’ll just hold the gains; if it suddenly rebounds, it won’t turn the floating profit into regret. Being flat is not a sin—opening positions randomly is the mistake. For friends who haven’t boarded yet, listen to me: don’t chase now. Wait for the next shot—it’ll feel more comfortable.

$BTC $ETH