Bitcoin bear markets don't end on a date. They end when there is no one left to capitulate.
At the last three cycle bottoms, Long-Term Holder supply in loss saturated at nearly the identical level:
Jan 2015: 33.8% of supply Dec 2018: 33.8% Nov 2022: 36.2%
Today: 36.2%.
A carbon copy of the 2022 low, after peaking at 39.1% on June 30 - the deepest LTH underwater reading in over a decade.
The ceiling exists because Satoshi-era and deep cold storage coins mathematically cannot go into loss.
When LTH loss saturates in the mid-30s, it means virtually every coin that moved during the bull market is now held at a loss.
There is nobody left to newly capitulate. Seller exhaustion, by construction.
Meanwhile, Short-Term Holder supply in loss spiked to 29.1% in January (identical to the 2018 bottom) and has since collapsed to 11.4% - a 34% drop in 30 days while price barely moved.
That only happens when the cost basis has been repriced at the lows. The sellers already sold. The buyers own their pain at $60K.
When we look at the calendar, prior bears bottomed 363 to 410 days after the peak. We are at day 274 - 72% of the way through the average bear on time, and 100% of the way through it on suffering.
Either this cycle compresses, or we get the 2015 treatment... months of sideways boredom while patient capital accumulates and everyone else rediscovers their passion for day trading dog shitcoins.
It is increasingly easier to say that exhaustion is already here.
Days Bitcoin has spent in price ranges: $1 - $10: 412 days $10 - $100: 352 days $100 - $1,000: 1356 days $1,000 - $10,000: 1115 days $10,000 - $100,000: 2117 days $100,000 - $1,000,000: 217 days $1,000,000 - $10,000,000: 0 days $10,000,000 - $100,000,000: 0 days
Bitcoin has reclaimed $61,000 and is now pushing into $63,500 resistance for the first time in weeks.
This is where things get interesting.
A confirmed breakout above $63.5K could shift momentum and put $65K+ back on the table.
But there's one problem...
Trading volume remains unusually light, largely due to the holiday weekend, while recent data continues to show liquidity building below price. That makes this a key area where bulls need real conviction.
Until Bitcoin decisively clears resistance, this is still a range.
$PI is printing a double top formation 👀 After testing resistance twice, buyers are struggling to push higher. The neckline is the key support to watch, as momentum is reaching a critical decision point. 📈
If bulls can defend support and reclaim the recent highs, this could turn into a fake breakdown and fuel a strong recovery. Otherwise, losing the neckline may invite short-term selling pressure. 🔥
PI is sitting at a major inflection zone—watch the next move closely because volatility is about to pick up. 🚀
Bullwif: The Meme Coin Riding the Bull Market Narrative
Every market cycle has its defining narratives. In crypto, few themes have gained momentum as quickly as the current bull market meta. Interest accelerated after crypto influencer Ansem, whose promotion of The Black Bull helped propel it to a market capitalization of over $130 million, shared an image of a bull wearing a knitted hat on social media. The post sparked discussion around the "bull wif hat" concept and further highlighted the growing popularity of bull-themed memes across the Solana ecosystem. Bullwif is a community-driven meme coin built around one simple idea: embrace the bullish sentiment sweeping through the cryptocurrency market. Rather than relying on complicated concepts or short-lived trends, Bullwif focuses on a recognizable mascot, viral content, and an engaged community built around one of the strongest narratives in the current market. The project draws inspiration from the image of the Wall Street Charging Bull wearing a knitted hat, giving an established meme its own on-chain identity. As interest in bull-themed memes continued to grow, Bullwif was created to give that recognizable image a dedicated community and brand. Bullwif has since begun attracting attention across crypto social media, with its distinctive mascot becoming increasingly recognizable among traders and meme enthusiasts. As the bull market narrative continues to evolve, the project aims to establish itself as one of the leading meme coins representing that theme. Unlike projects that disappear after launch, Bullwif is focused on long-term community building. The developer remains actively involved, interacting with holders, organizing marketing initiatives, and continuously expanding the project's reach. Consistent engagement has become one of Bullwif's defining characteristics, creating an environment where community members actively contribute to the project's growth. Marketing also plays a central role in Bullwif's strategy. Through original artwork, social media campaigns, community engagement, and broader media exposure, the project is focused on introducing Bullwif to new audiences every day. The objective is to build a recognizable brand that people immediately associate with the bull market narrative. Community remains at the heart of the project. Holders create memes, share content, spread awareness, and help expand the Bullwif brand organically. That grassroots participation has historically been one of the strongest drivers behind successful meme coins, and Bullwif embraces that same philosophy. As crypto markets continue to strengthen, many participants are looking for projects with recognizable narratives, active communities, and consistent development. Bullwif combines those elements by centering its identity around one of the most recognizable symbols in finance and investing: the bull market. As always, participants should conduct their own research before purchasing any cryptocurrency. Meme coins are highly speculative and can experience significant price volatility.