蜡币小鑫

Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?

White House digital asset adviser Patrick Witt says the government will still do everything it can to push the bill over the finish line in September.

In short: legislation on the digital asset market structure has entered the White House’s priority agenda. But the White House can only coordinate and apply pressure—it cannot cast a vote in the Senate, and it cannot eliminate internal interest divisions within Congress.

From political statements to becoming law, there are still steps in between: procedural votes in the Senate, amendment negotiations, final votes, harmonizing the texts between the two chambers, and the President’s signature.

Any disputes over the division of regulatory authority, stablecoin yield, and restrictions on officials’ digital asset interests could change the timeline—and even the policy benefits the bill ultimately manages to deliver.

Therefore, news about the CLARITY Act before September will definitely keep coming up repeatedly. Each time there are negotiation developments, lawmakers’ statements, or vote scheduling, the market may package it as “on the verge of passage,” boosting short-term risk appetite.

On Predict, is the Clarity Act going to be signed into law in 2026?

Yes is only 24. The probability for No is 76.

I think you could buy a little Yes to test the waters—after all, Trump is strong.

Unitree Technology is entering the final stage of its IPO.

August 10: Online and offline subscription

August 12: Allotment confirmation payment

Official listing: Not yet announced; it is expected to most likely take place in mid-to-late August

Based on 1 USD = 6.8 RMB and about 404 million shares outstanding after issuance:

$70 ≈ 476 yuan ≈ valuation of 192.5 billion RMB
$75 ≈ 510 yuan ≈ valuation of 206.0 billion RMB
$80 ≈ 544 yuan ≈ valuation of 220.0 billion RMB
$85 ≈ 578 yuan ≈ valuation of 234.0 billion RMB
$90 ≈ 612 yuan ≈ valuation of 247.5 billion RMB

I’ve already taken two price levels on Predict:

🎯 Unitree market cap breaks 120 billion RMB: YES

🎯 Unitree market cap breaks 200 billion RMB: YES

I believe the 120–200 billion RMB range represents strong value for money:

A 120 billion RMB valuation corresponds to an IPO valuation of about 2x; for a company like Unitree—which is a leader in humanoid robots with scarcity, global competitiveness, and high growth expectations—it isn’t particularly aggressive.

Even if it reaches 200 billion RMB, it’s mostly the scarcity premium for “China’s first humanoid robot stock + core assets in embodied intelligence” traded in advance;

Only after it truly enters the 250–300 billion RMB range will the weight of sentiment pricing clearly outweigh fundamentals.

A weakening nonfarm is not simply a good thing for rate cuts; what the market is truly trading is the tug-of-war between economic slowdown and sticky inflation.

I’m more focused on which—weak employment or inflation persistence—can better keep rate expectations in check. Macroeconomic data by itself isn’t a trading signal; it’s the price reaction that matters.

US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below the market expectation of about 80,000; the May and June employment data were also revised down by a total of 103,000, showing that the cooling in the labor market is more severe than what the market had priced in.

BTC -0.32% latest 65009.9; $ETH -0.49% latest 1919.6; $XAUT
+0.09% latest 4328.3.

Market focus:

BTC: Look for support around 61,100; 57,200 is the defense level. 68,950 is short-term resistance—once it holds above, then look for 72,850.

ETH: Look for support around 1,800; 1,650 is the defense level. 2,050 is short-term resistance—once it holds above, then look for 2,150.

Trading bias: First observe, then wait for price confirmation. The narrative is there, but the underlying assets haven’t caught up yet.

Don’t look at only one data point for the macro theme. Weak employment can curb rate expectations and risk assets will breathe easier; but if CPI keeps sticking, the market will quickly trade the rate pressure back in.

Non-farm payrolls surprise to the downside, but don't rush to call it good news

New jobs: down 23,000; for the first two months, another 103,000 were cut; the unemployment rate fell, mainly because more people exited the labor force

The market has pushed the probability of a September rate hike down to 44%

This isn't “good news” = indiscriminate buying/pump-up. It’s that rate-hike pressure is easing while growth risks are rising: next, watch U.S. Treasury yields, and whether the Nasdaq and BTC can truly hold and absorb the move

If rates fall but risk assets don't rise, the trade isn't about easing—it’s about a recession

The most delicate aspect of US employment has arrived: companies don’t lay people off, but they’re also not in a hurry to hire.

In the short term, there’s no support for the Fed quickly turning dovish—the Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow night will be the real pricing point for US Treasuries, tech stocks, and BTC

Mainland China stock IPOs in Hong Kong also aren’t that hot anymore—it’s not as appealing as before.

At the height of the first half of the year, investors could easily make tens of thousands in profit with just one board lot.

In July, there were basically no new issues to bid on. By August, we finally waited for one, but with only about 600 yuan profit for one board lot.

With no action in the crypto market and no momentum in stocks either, Hong Kong IPO bidding has also entered a quiet period.

After the “making money” effect cools down, you realize the hardest part in the market isn’t losing money—it’s having no opportunities.

Sigh… it’s tough. Bring back some market action, please!

The market is putting real money behind the bet that the United States and Iran can reach a deal, but I only look at one indicator: whether oil tankers have truly returned to normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Statements can change sentiment, but only actual navigation can change supply.

If a deal is finalized, oil prices, inflation, and U.S. Treasury yields could all fall at the same time—creating a tailwind for tech stocks and BTC; if talks collapse, the recent gains in risk assets could quickly be unwound.

Do you think this time is a real turning point, or just another case of “pump it up first, then crash”?

Yushu Technology’s IPO is entering the countdown.

The issuance schedule currently disclosed is: price inquiry on August 5 and online subscription on August 10; the official listing date has not been announced yet. The final issue price has also not been determined. The figure of about RMB 104 circulating in the market is a theoretical value derived by dividing the proposed fundraising amount of RMB 4.202 billion by the minimum number of shares to be issued (40.4464 million shares). This corresponds to an estimated valuation of about RMB 420 billion, and it is not an official pricing.

Based on a valuation of RMB 420 billion:
For 2025, revenue is about RMB 1.7 billion, corresponding to ~25x PS;
Parent-attributable net profit is RMB 278 million, corresponding to ~151x PE;
Net profit after deducting non-recurring items is RMB 591 million, corresponding to ~71x PE.

The valuation is not low, but Yushu is not relying on hype alone: In 2025, sales of humanoid robots were 5,215 units, generating revenue of RMB 868 million, with gross margin from main business reaching 60.13%. The real risk is that in Q1 2026, revenue growth of 68% is expected, while profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to fall by more than 52%. R&D and marketing investments are visibly eroding near-term profits.

A few days ago it was still “the stock must fall no matter whether the earnings are good or bad.” Now, the market suddenly starts rewarding good performance again.

Last night on Wall Street:
🔥 S&P 500 rose 1.8%, hitting a new all-time high
🔥 Nasdaq gained 2.6%
🔥 Dow surged by 907 points
🔥 Palantir jumped 29.5%
🔥 Micron rose 7.6%, and Broadcom climbed 6.6%

Why did good earnings surge this time?

Because the companies’ fundamentals were solid. At the same time, the oil price dropped 5.3% and U.S. Treasury yields fell back—two heavy stones weighing on tech stocks finally loosened.

The market isn’t blindly buying AI again; it’s selecting the companies that can truly turn AI into revenue, profits, and orders.

Next, the most important thing isn’t who shouts the loudest, but who can continue to raise guidance. Who do you think will be the next AI company to be repriced by funds?

#纳指 #AI股票 #美股

Elon Musk’s net worth shrank by $36.3 billion in July.

What does that mean?

The wealth he lost in a single month is more than the entire net worth of any one person among ranks 2 through 10 on the global rich list.

But the most painful part isn’t that he lost so much—it’s that after losing it all, he will most likely still be the world’s richest person.

Ordinary people: This month their account is down 10% and they can’t sleep.

Musk: Lost a world-class billionaire in one month and keeps going to work.

This is the “drawdown” of a top billionaire. 😂

The market was terrified to death yesterday, and today it’s back to accumulating positions. Why?

It’s not because the economy suddenly got better—it’s because oil prices fell.

Brent crude dropped 4.7% in a single day, and US stocks immediately surged:

🔥 Nasdaq up 2.1%
🔥 S&P 500 up 1.5%, just about 0.1% away from its all-time high
🔥 Dow up nearly 700 points, setting a record close

Now the market switch is very clear:
Oil prices rise = worries about inflation, worries about rate hikes, tech stocks get punished;
Oil prices fall = easing inflation pressure, and capital comes back to buy growth stocks.

So don’t just focus on tech stocks. Going forward, you should pay more attention to crude oil and US Treasury yields. They’re the real remote controls for global risk assets right now.
#美股 #原油 #科技股

The financial market is, in essence, a way to monetize cognition.

If you believe you have insights, come to the market and cash them in.

If you think you don't, you can also come in to test it.

The market will only tell you the answer through profit and loss. Welcome to the world of challengers!

In this market, the truly formidable are never the “stock gods” who make a fortune in a single round. It’s those who, after surviving bull and bear cycles, can still keep the profits in their hands.

I’ve seen far too many people make big money, yet very few can hold on to the results. Even fewer can control drawdowns and keep wealth growing long-term and steadily.

Conquering the realm is hard; holding the realm is even harder.

The financial market is the same: making money may depend on the trend, courage, or even luck. But keeping money is about cognition, discipline, and a deep respect for risk.

Stay humble in good times and steady in bad times; stay clear-headed when earning and hold your line when losing.

Never let a single heavily concentrated position or a moment of impulsiveness strip you of the right to keep participating.

As long as you’re still at the table, opportunities always exist. Once your principal is depleted, even the biggest market moves have nothing to do with you.

In the world of trading, legends of short-term overnight wealth are never in short supply. What’s truly scarce is the ability to remain stable and reach the finish after countless cycles.

What is truly admirable about Buffett is not just how much he earned, but the fact that he spent his lifetime proving this: investing isn’t about who can run the fastest for a moment—it’s about who can control risk, compound steadily, and go far enough.

In the end, the market often rewards not the smartest or most aggressive people, but those who always maintain a sense of reverence, know how to go on the offensive, and know how to survive.