RecodeX

📡 Top-of-the-hour update | 10:00-11:00

1. Doubao and the Qianwen platform each announced that their intelligent agent features will be discontinued on July 10 and July 15, 2026, respectively. Users need to back up their data before October 15.

2. In Tehran, Iran held a public farewell and memorial ceremony for the late supreme leader Khamenei. He was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28.

3. China Coast Guard’s Xiu Shan (秀山) vessel formation took over from the Dai Shan (岱山) formation and continues routine law-enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan.

4. A team from Peking University successfully developed the world’s first neural dynamics system chip based on phase-change memristors. In tasks such as cerebral cortex reconstruction, it achieves speedups of 50 to 478 times compared with GPUs.

5. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $294.62 million in net outflows, while demand for Ethereum funds shows a more resilient institutional investment landscape.

6. Canada plans to, together with around 10 other countries at the NATO summit, announce the establishment of a Global Defense Bank to reduce strategic dependence on the United States.

7. The Central Meteorological Observatory continues issuing orange alerts for heavy rain. It is expected that regions including Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hubei will experience extremely heavy rainfall, with localized areas in southern Guangxi seeing exceptionally heavy rainfall.

8. Changguang Satellite has completed equity financing of nearly 5 billion yuan. The funds will be used to build satellite mass-production capabilities, develop the “Jilin-1” networking, and create remote-sensing data application software.

📡 Hourly Report | 09:00-10:00

1. The State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Commerce have publicly solicited comments on the “E-commerce Law (Draft Amendment for Public Comment)”, covering five areas including expanding and adjusting the scope, and improving platform responsibilities.

2. Typhoon “Maysak” is expected to land again tonight near the border area between Guangxi and northern Vietnam. The National Marine Forecasting Center has upgraded the storm surge alert to yellow, with heavy to intense rainfall expected across South China.

3. Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices by about 20% in the third quarter. It has orally notified some customers. Meanwhile, Samsung’s 4nm foundry capacity is nearly sold out, and it has started accepting orders selectively.

4. Kuaishou’s subsidiary, Keling AI, has completed its first round of financing of $3.0 billion, with a post-investment valuation of about $18.0 billion. Investors include Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and others.

5. The funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei begins today in places including Tehran, as tensions in the Middle East continue to run high.

6. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy has released its first AI discovery agent for superconducting materials, Elements Claw. The discovery has been validated through lab experiments, confirming four new types of superconductors.

7. The first “Hualong One” project in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area—the Taipingling Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2—achieved successful first grid connection, generating its first unit of electricity.

8. A single whale bought $37.7 million worth of ETH and WBTC within three days. Of the ETH, there is an unrealized gain of $3.3 million, reflecting bullish sentiment among institutional investors.

📡 On-the-hour News | 08:00-09:00

1. Intensive verification of reusable rocket technologies. Commercial space companies such as Blue Arrow Aerospace and CAS Space have accelerated their IPO plans; more than 20 A-share related companies have been revealed. Companies like Haozhi Electromechanical have received expectations of high performance from institutions.

2. According to analysts at SemiAnalysis, the share of AI data center spending on memory will exceed 40% by 2027. The market has not yet fully priced this in.

3. Trump announced that the U.S. Treasury will accept stock donations from listed companies to fund the “Trump Account” program. The number of applicants has already exceeded 6 million, sparking ethical and legal controversies.

4. Samsung plans to raise the average DRAM selling price by 20% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. It has already verbally notified some customers, and consumer-electronics terminal manufacturers have confirmed the news is true.

5. The embodied intelligence sector is heating up. Unitree Technology’s registration for a Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO has been approved. The expected market size in China in 2026 will reach 1.09 trillion yuan, and the competitive focus will shift from “building bodies” to “competing with data.”

6. Spot gold rose 1.23% to $4,174.90 per ounce. It gained 2.13% for the week so far. Weaker-than-expected employment reports have reignited rate-cut expectations, providing upward momentum for gold prices.

7. Giant whale Chun Wang transferred 9,876 ETH (about $17.02 million) into Binance, apparently preparing to sell. Meanwhile, an Ethereum short “giant whale” exited positions after realizing a loss of $9.386 million.

8. Argentina defeated Cape Verde 3-2 to advance to the Round of 16. Messi scored his 20th World Cup goal, ushering in the “20-goal era.”

📡 Hourly News Update | 07:00-08:00

1. Messi scored 20 goals at the World Cup and netted in eight consecutive matches, setting a historic new record.

2. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East: France adjusts its military deployments, Houthi forces intercept Saudi aircraft, Iran warns the U.S. to comply with the memorandum of understanding, and Fitch warns that risks remain at the tail end of the conflict.

3. The cryptocurrency market rebounds: Bitcoin breaks through $61,000, SOL rebounds as meme-coin activity surges, but the sustainability of the rally is in doubt.

4. The brokerage sector sees intensive institutional research: since June, 13 brokerages have been surveyed. Industry expectations suggest that listed brokerages’ net profit year-on-year growth could reach as high as 50%, and that the valuation-repair rally has staying power.

5. The Central Meteorological Observatory issues three alerts—heavy rain, typhoons, and severe convective weather. Areas including Guangxi and Guangdong need to guard against heavy rainfall and typhoon impacts; on the Jingha line’s conventional-speed railway, some trains are delayed due to rainfall exceeding the standard.

6. Germany’s 2027 draft budget plans to add borrowing of more than €203 billion, and defense spending will rise to €130.1 billion to address economic sluggishness and geopolitical risks.

7. PJM, the largest power-grid operator in the U.S., triggers a Level 2 energy emergency alert due to extreme heat and transmission overload. In Northern Virginia, spot electricity prices exceed $2,500 per MWh.

8. OPEC: June crude-oil production increases by about 3.3 million barrels per day month-on-month, rebounding from a more than two-decade low, but it remains far below quota levels.

📡 8-Hour Review | July 04, 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets have been choppy amid multiple factors, including cooling macro data, rising geopolitical risks, and the rapid transition of the AI industry. The U.S. dollar logged its biggest weekly drop since April after weak employment data. Gold and Bitcoin rebounded as a result. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have remained high; OPEC output surged, and China’s AI industry shifting toward domestically produced chips has become even clearer.

Macroeconomy

1. The weakening of U.S. June nonfarm payrolls has dampened near-term rate-hike expectations. The U.S. dollar index is expected to post its largest weekly decline since April, while the euro and the pound strengthened.

2. Allianz’s chief economist warned that the Fed may have to raise rates in September, as inflation is expected to peak above 3.7%, with AI and fiscal stimulus supporting the economy.

3. ECB President Lagarde will rarely attend in person next week’s EU finance ministers’ meeting. The market is watching whether she steps down early to enter French politics. Germany’s draft 2027 budget shows new borrowing of more than €203 billion, with defense spending rising sharply.

4. Extreme heat has swept the U.S. Midwest and Northeast. More than 185 million people are under heat alerts. PJM, the largest grid operator in the U.S., warned it cannot meet expected energy demand and will implement plans to cut electricity consumption.

5. Brazil’s June trade surplus expanded to $9.758 billion, with year-on-year growth in both soybean and iron ore export volumes.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin hit $62,300, a nine-day high, rebounding from around $58,000 to near $62,000, boosted by record highs in global stock markets and a return of ETF inflows.

2. In the past 24 hours, crypto liquidations totaled $174 million across the market. Both long and short positions were liquidated, and volatility was intense. Bitcoin faces key resistance in the $62,800–$63,400 range.

3. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings narrowed their unrealized loss to $11.5 billion. The number of net purchases by listed companies reached 166,984 BTC—more than double the amount produced by mining.

4. Trump’s financial disclosures show that in 2025 he earned more than $600 million from the $TRUMP meme coin. The revenue share has already surpassed the total of his real-estate and licensing businesses.

5. Illinois signed the Digital Assets Privilege Tax Act, which will levy taxes on crypto activities starting January 1, 2027.

AI Technology

1. China’s AI industry has reached a turning point. ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu are shifting to domestically produced chips. The share of domestically produced GPUs in new deployments has risen to 41%. Supported by AI application growth, China’s quant funds have seen assets under management double in less than a year to about $384 billion.

2. Anthropic launched Claude Science, a platform for scientists, and plans to take the lead in AI chip R&D. Alibaba banned employees from using Claude Code, after earlier accusations that it carried out model-distillation attacks.

3. Microsoft invested $2.5 billion to set up a new AI engineering division, deploying 6,000 experts to help companies build AI systems, and secretly incubating Project Aion to create a Copilot operating system.

4. A surge in storage-chip prices has triggered a group lawsuit by U.S. consumers, accusing Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron of driving price increases of roughly 700% since 2022 by cutting DRAM capacity. UBS raised its storage-price outlook. The DRAM/NAND price upcycle is expected to continue through 2027.

5. Spending on AI infrastructure hit a record high, but efficiency gains are reducing the necessity of building space data centers. In the U.S., 11 states have limited AI data-center expansion due to rising power costs.

Geopolitics

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian forces have fully “liberated” Luhansk and captured the town of Konstantinovka, saying that Russian troops have gained “strategic initiative.” The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost external power for the 21st time; its emergency diesel generators have started running.

2. Yemen’s Houthi forces said they intercepted a Saudi warplane and warned that if Saudi Arabia launches further attacks, they will strike its airports and important interests. Fitch ratings warned that ongoing Middle East conflict poses risks to global companies.

3. Israel’s prime minister’s office denied reports about a planned assassination of Iran’s negotiation representative, calling it “fake news.” Iran’s parliament speaker, Ghalibaf, said the U.S. must accept the region’s “real changes.”

4. OPEC’s June oil production surged by 2.34 million barrels per day to 18.75 million bpd. Increases were significant for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, but the level is still far below pre-war figures. A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s June crude output rose by 3.30 million barrels per day month-over-month.

Commodities & Gold

1. JPMorgan maintains its long-term bullish view on gold. It expects the average spot price in the third quarter of 2026 to be $4,300 per ounce, rising to $4,500 in the fourth quarter. It also expects further recovery in 2027. Spot gold rose 2.16% over the week.

2. The weakening of U.S. June nonfarm payroll data reduced near-term rate-hike expectations. Gold prices rebounded to above $4,100 per ounce, and the risk of a further sharp drop later has narrowed.

3. In domestic futures, night trading saw more gains than losses. Asphalt rose nearly 3%, synthetic rubber rose more than 2%, and liquefied petroleum gas fell more than 1%.

Market sentiment summary: The market is swinging between cooling macro data and rising geopolitical risks. A weaker dollar is driving rebounds in gold and Bitcoin. However, volatility remains high in the crypto market. The AI industry’s transition and the surge in storage-chip prices have become the key focus in tech, and overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

📡 Hourly Report | 06:00-07:00

1. Russian President Putin announces that Russian forces have fully liberated Luhansk and have made major progress in Donetsk, while the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has lost external power for the 21st time amid the conflict.

2. Iran warns the United States not to violate the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding, saying any violation will be met with a response. Meanwhile, Poland’s prime minister urges the NATO representative to be cautious in making a new financial support commitment to Ukraine.

3. China’s quant funds are being driven by AI applications. Assets under management have doubled in less than a year to about USD 38.4 billion, as investors’ money pours in.

4. Several European countries are affected by the ongoing heatwave. More than 4,000 cases of excess deaths have been recorded, and France experienced its highest temperatures in nearly 80 years last week.

5. The iPhone 18/18e cannot support two AI features of iOS 27 due to the need for 12GB of RAM. Apple has also begun testing iOS 27.4 and plans to roll out new features such as AI-enhanced Siri.

6. Inference chips are evolving from general-purpose GPUs toward specialization and heterogeneity. Multiple companies have released chips with different architectures to address the “inference crisis.”

7. From January to May this year, China’s Export-Import Bank has issued more than CNY 340 billion in new technology loans, focusing on areas such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots.

8. The Central Meteorological Observatory issues alerts for heavy rain and strong convective weather. In some areas of Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and other places, there are bouts of torrential rain, with localized thunderstorms, strong winds, or hail.

📡 Hourly News Update | 05:00-06:00

1. Weakening of the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls data dampened short-term rate-hike expectations. Gold rebounded to above $4,100 per ounce, with the risk of further sharp declines in the future narrowing.

2. Emerging-market assets rallied across the board, boosted by the AI boom and optimistic expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve. The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index posted its largest single-day gain since mid-June.

3. The largest U.S. power grid saw electricity demand surge to a record high due to extreme heat. The Department of Energy ordered generating units to run at full capacity to prevent power outages.

4. Last year, Trump reportedly profited $1.4 billion from cryptocurrencies; the share of his revenue from this source has now surpassed the combined total from real estate and licensing businesses.

5. Spending on AI infrastructure hit a record high, but efficiency improvements are reducing the necessity of building space-based data centers. Eleven U.S. states have limited the expansion of AI data centers due to rising electricity costs.

6. A 5.5-magnitude earthquake struck the near-offshore waters of central Chile. The epicenter depth was 10 kilometers. There have been no reports of casualties or property damage.

7. The state of Illinois signed the “Digital Assets Privilege Tax Act,” which will impose taxes on crypto activities starting January 1, 2027.

8. Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled to extend former President Jair Bolsonaro’s home confinement.

📡 Top-of-the-hour bulletin | 04:00-05:00

1. Extreme heat sweeps across the U.S. and the Middle East; more than 185 million people are under heat alerts. With the country’s 250th anniversary Independence Day celebrations, many events were cancelled. The National Mall in Washington hosts a temporary closure of the exhibition.

2. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian forces have “completely liberated” Luhansk and taken control of the city of Konstantynivka, as the geopolitical situation remains tense.

3. Bitcoin’s price hits $62,594. The crypto market shows momentum in catching up with equities. About 50% of positions are in profit, and analysts are watching for signs of a bullish market reversal in the second half of the year.

4. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warns that the pace of AI development is outstripping existing rules, posing a major risk. The UK’s FCA says the traditional rulemaking timeline is “not working.”

5. The U.S. dollar index falls 0.02% to 100.845. Driven by rising expectations for rate cuts, the week is expected to record the largest weekly drop since April, with assets in Latin America seeing a rebound.

6. In Venezuela, the death toll from the earthquake rises to 2,645; 12,666 people are injured. 1,074 buildings have been damaged, and 15,050 people have been displaced.

7. Forecasts for S&P 500 revenues in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 12.2% year-over-year, higher than the earlier estimate of 9.5%. U.S. stocks rebound after a selloff in technology shares.

8. Argentina’s central bank foreign-exchange reserves total $48.24 billion. In June, car sales reach 44,096 units. Brazil’s Supreme Court allows former President Jair Bolsonaro to continue his house arrest in a more lenient form.

📡 Hourly News Report | 03:00-04:00

1. Russian President Putin inspects a frontline command post, saying Russian forces have seized “strategic initiative,” and have fully “liberated” Konstantinovka.

2. A Reuters investigation shows that in June, OPEC crude oil production surged by 3.3 million barrels per day month-on-month. It rebounded from multi-year lows, but supply remains far below quota levels.

3. The dollar is expected to record its biggest weekly drop since April this week, as cooling U.S. employment data weakens expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, while the euro and pound strengthen.

4. PJM, the largest U.S. grid operator, warns it cannot meet expected energy demand and will implement planned reductions in electricity usage in its service area.

5. Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says the U.S. must accept “real changes” in the region and hopes to create conditions for lifting sanctions.

6. JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices will reach $4,500 in the fourth quarter, but notes that if economic data is strong, the Federal Reserve may raise rates earlier, creating downside risk to its outlook.

7. Tesla’s Optimus robot is set for mass production soon; installation of the first production line has begun, and China’s A-share humanoid robot sector is rising.

8. Bitcoin faces a key resistance level in the $62,800–$63,400 range. If it falls below $59,055, the liquidation intensity for long positions could reach $1.196 billion.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 02:00-03:00

1. US officials are concerned that Israel’s planned assassination of Iran’s negotiating representative could derail peace talks. Meanwhile, Iran’s president discussed expanding cooperation with Russia, and the Houthis threatened retaliation against Saudi Arabia.

2. Microsoft will invest $2.5 billion to establish a new AI engineering division, deploying 6,000 experts to help companies build AI systems, while secretly incubating Project Aion to develop a Copilot operating system.

3. UBS raised its outlook for storage prices. The DRAM/NAND price-increase cycle is expected to continue through 2027, with supply-demand imbalance at a 30-year rare level.

4. ECB President Christine Lagarde will unusually attend next week’s EU finance ministers’ meeting in person. The market is watching whether she steps down early to enter French politics.

5. Trump’s financial disclosures show that in 2025, he earned more than $600 million in revenue from the $TRUMP meme coin. The SEC chair said it will cooperate with the CFTC to push the market toward on-chain.

6. Peru’s National Elections Office announced that Keiko Fujimori has been elected president. She will be sworn in on July 28, serving a five-year term.

7. JPMorgan Chase expects gold to face near-term pressure, but may reach $4,500 in the second half of 2026. Spot gold rose 2.16% this week.

8. Brazil’s June trade surplus expanded to $9.758 billion. Both soybean and iron ore export volumes increased year over year.

📡 On-the-hour Bulletin | 01:00-02:00

1. JPMorgan maintains a long-term bullish view on gold, forecasting an average price of $4,300 per ounce in Q3 2026, rising to $4,500 in Q4, with a further recovery in 2027.

2. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost external power for the 21st time. Emergency diesel generators have started running. Power has been restored, but one transmission line remains unusable.

3. Canada’s pension fund CPP Investments will invest $1.75 billion to support Yintuo’s AI infrastructure buildout, planning to develop over 10 gigawatts of data centers.

4. ECB President Lagarde will personally attend next week’s EU finance ministers’ meeting rather than being represented by the vice president—an action that is quite rare.

5. Bitcoin rebounded from $58,000 to around $62,000. ETF inflows have returned, and net purchases of bitcoin by listed companies reached 166,984 coins—double the output from mined production.

6. UK prime minister candidate Burnham confirmed that there will be no early election. He will negotiate a more “ambitious” agreement with the EU and is also willing to hold talks with the Taliban to deport Afghan nationals seeking asylum.

7. The Argentine government announced the abolition of the Ministry of the Interior, with its functions transferred to the Office of the Chief of the Cabinet, and has created two positions for deputy cabinet ministers.

8. The WHO says the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still spreading. The number of new cases each week has reached the highest level since the outbreak began, and the situation is grave.

📡 Hourly Update | 00:00-01:00

1. The global investment and financing market remains hot. AI and hard-tech fields continue to attract massive capital; companies such as Quantum Systems, ElevenLabs, and Crusoe received large rounds of funding. Conglomerates including South Korea’s Samsung and SK Group have announced investment in physical AI industry clusters at the scale of hundreds of billions of won.

2. ECB Governing Council member Nagel stressed the need to stay alert to inflation risks and maintain policy flexibility. Germany’s 2027 budget draft shows new borrowing exceeding €203 billion, with defense spending rising sharply.

3. Fitch Ratings warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses risks to global businesses. Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone and agreed to hold a meeting soon. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost external power supply for the 21st time.

4. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations totaling $174 million. Bitcoin’s rebound needs to break through the $72,000 resistance level. Strategy’s unrealized losses narrowed to $11.5 billion.

5. Anthropic launched the Claude Science platform for scientists and plans to take the lead in AI chip R&D. Alibaba has banned employees from using Claude Code, after previously accusing it of conducting model distillation attacks.

6. UK Bank of England Governor Bailey said that if a war involving Iran had not broken out, the UK’s inflation rate would have already met the target; current inflation is 2.8%, and the government will work to bring it down.

7. A surge in storage chip prices has triggered a class action lawsuit by US consumers. The lawsuit alleges that Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron drove prices up by roughly 700% since 2022 by cutting DRAM production capacity.

8. Typhoon “Maysak” has made landfall in Hainan. It is expected to move into the Beibu Gulf in the early hours of the 4th. Guangxi will see strong winds and heavy rain, and the weather disaster emergency response has been raised to Level III.

📡 Hourly News Report | 23:00-00:00

1. OPEC: June oil production daily output surged by 2.34 million barrels to 18.75 million barrels. Increases were notable in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, but they still remain far below pre-war levels.

2. Allianz chief economist warns the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to raise rates in September, as the inflation rate is expected to peak at above 3.7%, with support from AI and fiscal stimulus.

3. Yemen’s Houthi forces claim to have intercepted a Saudi fighter jet, warning that if Saudi launches further attacks, it will target its airports and other key interests.

4. China’s AI industry is at a turning point. ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu have shifted to domestic chips, and domestic GPUs’ share in new deployments has risen to 41%.

5. Bitcoin hits $62,300, a nine-day high, buoyed by global stock markets reaching record highs.

6. Major European stock indices closed higher across the board: Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.25%.

7. The Prime Minister’s Office of Israel denies reports of plans to assassinate Iran negotiation representatives, calling it “false news.”

8. Domestic futures trade at night saw more gain than loss: asphalt rose by nearly 3%, synthetic rubber rose by more than 2%, while liquefied petroleum gas fell by more than 1%.

📡 Daily News Briefing Overview | July 03

Over the past 24 hours, global markets sharply diverged under the dual shock of the “surprise NFP” and rising geopolitical tensions. U.S. June nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations, adding only 57,000 jobs. Markets quickly scaled back expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes; the U.S. dollar weakened, gold surged straight through $4,180 per ounce, and Bitcoin reclaimed $62,000. However, China’s A-share technology stocks suffered panic selling after a misinterpretation of Meta’s AI compute-power sale as “oversupply of compute,” with the STAR 50 index plunging 7.7%—in stark contrast to the strength of safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz passage fees remains unresolved, the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates, and domestic financial regulation has been tightened abruptly (with several institutions being taken over and others failing), leading to heavy risk-avoidance sentiment and a clear divergence in asset prices.

---

📊 Global Macros

1. Surprise NFP print triggers plunge in rate-hike expectations: U.S. June nonfarm employment added only 57,000 people, far below the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2%. Markets cut the probability of a July rate hike by the Fed from 29% to 18%. Multiple institutions maintained “no hikes, no cuts” guidance for the rest of the year. The U.S. dollar index fell more than 0.4% to 100.89.

2. Gold and U.S. Treasuries attract strong demand: Spot gold rose more than 2.3% to $4,123 per ounce, then broke above $4,180, setting a recent high. The total assets under U.S. money market funds hit an all-time high of $795 billion, reflecting intense risk-averse sentiment.

3. Europe stocks hit new highs; economic data proves resilient: The eurozone’s unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in May, and the June final composite PMI was 50, indicating the pace of contraction slowed. Both the STOXX 600 Index and the eurozone STOXX 50 Index reached record closing highs. The FTSE 100 rose 1.67%.

4. Domestic easing tone continues: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) net injected 50 billion yuan via open-market treasury bond operations in June. Net injections via 7-day reverse repos totaled 582.6 billion yuan. It also announced that on July 6 it will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan term buyout-style reverse repo to keep banking-system liquidity ample.

5. Refined oil prices record the biggest intrayear drop: Refined oil prices were cut by 950 yuan per ton and 915 yuan per ton starting at 24:00. Filling a private car’s tank will cost about 40 yuan less, reflecting expectations of a slowdown in global demand.

6. Japanese government bond yields surge: The yield on Japan’s 10-year JGB climbed to 2.81%, the highest since 1996, as market expectations for the Bank of Japan’s normalization of monetary policy warmed.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin back above $62,000; ETF inflows return: Boosted by weak NFP data and cooling rate-hike expectations, Bitcoin rose more than 2.5% to break through $62,000, while Ether returned to above $1,700. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a streak of ten consecutive days of net outflows, with yesterday’s net inflow reaching $223.5 million, signaling improving investor sentiment.

2. Market sentiment still in a panic zone: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 22, indicating extreme fear. Analysts believe BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL have generated buy signals, and the market may already be oversold.

3. Institutions accelerate positioning: Standard Chartered Bank partnered with Circle to launch bank-led USDC minting and redemption services. Crypto payments startup Mesh raised funding led by Binance, with a valuation of about $2 billion. On-chain perpetual futures platform Extended completed $12.5 million in strategic financing.

4. Regulatory and compliance updates: OFAC added 134 crypto wallet addresses linked to ISIS-K to its sanctions list, and Tether has frozen related funds. Citigroup lowered Strategy’s target price from $260 to $136 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. A-share tech stocks hit by a “compute oversupply” misread: The STAR 50 index plunged 7.7%, with semiconductors and compute-hardware sectors leading the decline. The market misinterpreted Meta’s sale of idle GPU compute as “compute oversupply.” Insiders clarified that it is actually a mature AI infrastructure business model; Lenovo executives said long-term demand still has enormous room.

2. Kuaishou’s KeLing AI sets a global video foundation model funding record: Kuaishou’s AI video generation model, KeLing, completed nearly $3 billion in financing. Post-investment valuation is about $18 billion, setting the largest global funding record for video foundation model companies.

3. Microsoft and Meta step up AI deployments: Microsoft formed a new 6,000-person department to help businesses deploy AI and plans to merge Copilot for consumers and enterprises into a single unified application. Meta is considering partnering with Samsung to produce customized AI chips worth 100 trillion won, using a 2-nanometer process.

4. New breakthroughs from Anthropic and Alibaba’s DAMO Academy: Anthropic launched early development of its own AI chips and is in talks with Samsung regarding 2-nanometer manufacturing processes. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy released its first AI agent for superconducting materials—Elements Claw—predicting 68,000 superconducting materials.

5. Yushu Technology’s Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO approved: The CSRC approved Yushu Technology’s IPO registration on the STAR Market. It took only 73 days from acceptance to meeting, setting the fastest STAR Market review record, lifting A-share humanoid robot concept stocks across the board.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. The Hormuz Strait standoff persists: Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over passage-fee issues have yielded no results. The U.S. proposed freezing tens of billions of dollars in assets in exchange for Iran giving up charging fees, but Iran refused to compromise. Iran’s speaker said the strait should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, raising global concerns about oil shipping. Saudi Arabia’s four supertankers loaded about 8 million barrels of crude oil and sailed out of the strait.

2. Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Russian forces launched large-scale retaliatory strikes on Kyiv and other areas, killing 27 people and injuring 91. Ukraine said it was hit strikes on the Russian Air Force base in Crimea, with at least seven aircraft destroyed. NATO pledged to provide €70 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2026.

3. Iran’s nuclear facilities damaged: Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered severe damage, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has not yet been approved to conduct inspections. A vice-chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council

...

📡 8-hour recap | July 03 16:00-24:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed a mixed picture: China A-shares edged higher in a choppy session, while the robotics theme surged. European equities hit record highs, but a surprise drop in U.S. nonfarm data sparked a rebound in gold. In China, financial regulation tightened: Wuhan Zhongbang Bank was taken over, and CITIC Trust went bankrupt. Geopolitical tensions remained high; issues involving Iran’s nuclear facilities and the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz further heightened market uncertainty.

Macroeconomy

1. The eurozone’s June composite PMI final reading was 50; the services PMI final reading was 49.4—both above expectations. The pace of contraction slowed, and inflationary pressure cooled.

2. U.S. June nonfarm employment data came in unexpectedly weak. Market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes cooled. Spot gold rose during the day, and Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold T+D early in the evening session jumped 2.61%.

3. The People’s Bank of China announced it would conduct a CNY 1 trillion (10,000亿元) “buyout-style” reverse repo operation on July 6, with a 3-month term, to keep ample liquidity in the banking system.

4. The State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan” for building a Beautiful China. It calls for comprehensive improvement in ecological and environmental quality by 2030 and lays out 7 key tasks, including carbon reduction and pollution abatement.

5. China’s refined oil price was cut starting from 24:00, lowering by RMB 950 and RMB 915 per ton respectively, marking the largest single cut so far this year.

Crypto Market

1. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF daily inflows exceeded USD 200 million. Bitcoin rebounded to above USD 61,000, but BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows for 10 straight trading days.

2. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of 588 BTC, while Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of 6,105 ETH—sentiment remained split.

3. Citigroup cut Strategy’s target price from USD 260 to USD 136, while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

AI Technology

1. Market news said Meta is considering partnering with Samsung to produce customized AI chips worth 100 trillion won, using a 2-nanometer process.

2. A JPMorgan report showed that in June, demand for large-model calls and API spending strengthened. AI infrastructure needs expanded, and unit economics improved for model providers.

3. The Ministry of Transport emphasized implementing the “AI + transport” initiative in depth and accelerating the improvement of development and governance systems.

4. The National Radio and Television Administration released results from June’s “AI video remix/modification” governance: nearly 7,600 non-compliant videos were cleared, and more than 20违规 accounts were handled.

Geopolitics

1. Dmitry Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said Finland has become a target for Russian nuclear strikes after lifting its ban on nuclear weapons deployment. Iran’s nuclear facilities were severely damaged, and the IAEA has not yet been authorized to enter for inspections.

2. Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said the Strait of Hormuz should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, raising global concerns about oil shipping.

3. A NATO Ankara Summit statement noted that Russia poses a “long-term threat” to Europe–Atlantic security. Allies pledged to provide EUR 70 billion in military assistance to Ukraine in 2026.

4. Ukraine said it struck a Russian air force base in Crimea, destroying at least seven aircraft. The Bulgarian prime minister said Bulgaria would reserve its view on the EU’s 21st round of sanctions against Russia.

Financial Regulation and Market

1. The National Financial Regulatory Administration decided to place Wuhan Zhongbang Bank, which had serious credit risks, under receivership for one year. Hankou Bank will take over related businesses.

2. The Financial Regulatory Bureau of Heilongjiang agreed that CITIC Trust enter bankruptcy proceedings in accordance with the law, requiring strict compliance with relevant laws and regulations for follow-up work.

3. The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public comments on improving rules for listed companies’ refinancing. It plans to establish a shelf-offering system for targeted share placements, and raise the cap for small, fast financing to RMB 600 million.

4. Bank of America data showed that, as of the week ending July 1, U.S. stock funds saw net outflows of USD 17.2 billion—marking the first net outflow in three months.

Market sentiment and key focus: Sentiment remained divided. Weak nonfarm data supported gold and crypto, but tighter financial regulation and heightened geopolitical risks suppressed risk appetite. Investors are watching next week’s nonfarm revised data and developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 22:00-23:00

1. US antitrust authorities are closely monitoring the oil market for any signs of price manipulation and urging states to assist with the investigation. Meanwhile, OPEC’s June crude oil output increased significantly by 2.34 million barrels per day due to restored exports from members in the Persian Gulf.

2. BlackRock recorded 10 consecutive days of net outflows totaling 35,980 BTC, indicating notable institutional selling pressure. At the same time, US Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of 588 BTC; Ethereum ETFs had net inflows of 6,105 ETH, with market sentiment splitting.

3. The European Commission has proposed five major cross-border defense projects, including drones and wing-edge early-warning capabilities. The initiatives have already secured a €325 million budget and may receive additional funding.

4. Germany’s automotive parts manufacturer Continental Group is close to selling Continental Teves to Lone Star Funds for about €4 billion, with the stock price rising 2%.

5. Guizhou Province has released a plan to upgrade the strategy from “selling liquor” to “selling a lifestyle,” supporting Moutai’s Gucheng to be developed to 5A scenic area standards and launching a three-year action plan to expand liquor exports overseas.

6. A malfunction in the customs system in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may prevent major cobalt producers from completing their first-half export quotas, potentially affecting up to about 20,000 tons of cobalt exports, worth roughly $1.1 billion.

7. A former White House adviser said the Trump administration will not establish an AI approval and regulatory body, opposing burdensome bureaucratic oversight. However, earlier it forced Anthropic to withdraw its model and delayed OpenAI’s release.

8. ECB President Lagarde has not ruled out the possibility of leaving early to enter French politics. At the same time, French economists believe the Federal Reserve still needs to raise rates, while the ECB may already have completed tightening.

📡 Hourly Update | 21:00-22:00

1. Iran’s Speaker Qalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, raising global concerns about oil shipping.

2. Oil export volumes in the Gulf region surged in June to more than 10 million barrels per day. The UAE’s crude oil pipeline throughput hit a record high, but it still remains 40% below pre-war levels.

3. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of over $200 million in a single day. Bitcoin rebounded to above $61,000, but BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days.

4. The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved the bankruptcy of Rongrong International Trust Co., Ltd., and, in accordance with the law, placed Wuhan Zhongbang Bank under receivership, with Hankou Bank taking over the relevant assets.

5. Global central banks net bought 41 tons of gold in May. Poland remained the largest buyer, and despite a sharp drop in gold prices, the reserve-building trend has not changed.

6. A NATO summit statement shows that member states have committed to providing €70 billion in military assistance to Ukraine by 2026, reaffirming the commitment to collective defense.

7. The Indian government is investigating a data leak incident involving an Apple supplier, Tata Electronics. The leaked files include photos of an unreleased iPhone 18 Pro model.

8. At the start of the night session, domestic futures contracts were mostly up rather than down. Shanghai silver and Shanghai tin rose more than 1%, but afterward Shanghai silver fell 5.41% and crude oil fell 2.27%.

📡 Hourly News Bulletin | 20:00-21:00

1. US June nonfarm payrolls came in unexpectedly, cooling market expectations for more Federal Reserve rate hikes. Spot gold prices rose during the day, and Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold T+D rose 2.61% at the start of the evening session.

2. Domestic sales of electric motorcycles have been booming since the start of this year. From January to May, total sales increased 5.2% year over year, export value grew 28.4% year over year, and production and sales have both been strong.

3. Nvidia holds a dominant position in the ASIC market, but competitors such as Marvell are gradually eroding Broadcom’s market share, signaling changes in the semiconductor competitive landscape.

4. The National Film Administration and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a notice encouraging cinemas to introduce AI intelligent agents, video gaming and other formats to create comprehensive cultural experience spaces.

5. A statement from NATO’s Ankara Summit said Russia poses a “long-term threat” to European-Atlantic security. Leaders will announce that European member states and Canada will assume more defense responsibilities.

6. The State Post Bureau visited the headquarters of five express delivery companies, including ZTO and YTO, emphasizing the need to deepen governance of “involutionary” competition and resist low-quality, low-price practices.

7. Iran has begun negotiations with regard to selling oil to Japanese companies. Potential buyers hope to obtain a longer US sanctions exemption period.

8. The China Securities Regulatory Commission and Singapore’s Monetary Authority held the 10th China–Singapore securities and futures regulatory roundtable to discuss cross-border regulatory cooperation and the development of capital markets.

📡 Hourly Report | 19:00-20:00

1. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has solicited public comments on improving rules for listed companies’ refinancing. It plans to establish a shelf offering system for private placement, raise the cap for small, fast financing to RMB 600 million, and implement a unified market-price-based pricing mechanism.

2. The National Financial Regulatory Administration has decided to place Wuhan Zhongbang Bank under receivership for one year, with all principal and interest on individual deposits fully protected.

3. The Heilongjiang Financial Regulatory Bureau has approved Fosun Trust’s entry into bankruptcy proceedings in accordance with the law, and requires that subsequent work be carried out strictly in line with relevant laws and regulations.

4. EVE Energy plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 3.5% of Smart More International shares, aiming to optimize its asset structure and meet funding needs for R&D investments.

5. The Ministry of Transport emphasized deep implementation of the “AI + Transportation” initiative, accelerating the improvement of development and governance systems, and maintaining a firm bottom line on safety.

6. Pinde Holdings plans to raise funds via a private placement of shares of no more than RMB 9.6 billion, to be used for Qingding AI server and high-density interconnect multilayer boards for high-speed optical modules projects.

7. Bank of China has restarted 5-year large-denomination time deposits with an annualized interest rate of 1.60%. Analysts view this as a differentiated deposit-attraction strategy rather than an industry-wide trend reversal.

8. UK new car sales in June rose 14.9% year over year. Tesla’s sales increased 42% year over year, while BYD’s sales grew 9.01% year over year.

📡 Hourly News Update | 18:00-19:00

1. Jiangbo Long is expected to see first-half net profit grow by more than 620 times year-on-year, reaching RMB 9.2 billion to 11 billion, driven by strong demand for storage chips and joint optimization technology with AMD.

2. The People’s Bank of China and two other departments issued the “Interim Measures for Cybersecurity Management in the Financial Sector (Draft for Comment),” emphasizing focused protection for critical information infrastructure to prevent cybersecurity risks from evolving into financial risks.

3. A report by JPMorgan Chase shows that in June, the volume of large-model calls and API spending strengthened; demand for AI infrastructure expanded, and unit economics for model providers improved.

4. Tech Data Port (China) expects first-half net profit to increase 176%-193% year-on-year, as demand remains strong in areas such as artificial intelligence and data centers, while memory prices continue rising.

5. Samsung announced that it will invest about 600 trillion won in the Yeongnam region of South Korea to build a physical AI industrial cluster, including humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, and AI server packaging substrates.

6. Cathay Highton expects first-half net profit to grow 27%-30% year-on-year; second-quarter net profit is projected to surge 290%-304% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 113%-121%.

7. Ukraine says it attacked a Russian Air Force base in Crimea, destroying at least seven fighter jets; Bulgaria’s prime minister said it will reserve its position on the EU’s 21st round of sanctions against Russia.

8. Typhoon Maysak (No. 10) made landfall in Lingshui, Hainan. It is the first typhoon to land in China this year. The Ministry of Emergency Management has launched a level-IV emergency response for geological disasters.