Korean Update

Here’s a visual + on-chain model + forecast for Bitcoin (as of ~22 Nov 2025), based on the latest data:

#BTC
---

🔍 On-Chain Analysis & Model

Key On-Chain Observations

1. Whale Accumulation / Large Holder Activity

According to a recent on-chain report, wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC saw a small drop in % share, but the 100–1,000 BTC wallets rose.

Miner netflow was slightly positive over a week, signaling that miners didn’t massively dump; miner reserves saw intraday swings.

According to Gate’s analysis, “large Bitcoin holders (≥ 1,000 btc) have resumed accumulation during the $95k–$100k range.”

2. Exchange Outflows

Bitcoin supply held on exchanges is decreasing: the exchange supply ratio dropped marginally in the latest week.

This suggests reduced short-term sell pressure and a tightening of liquid supply, which could support a supply squeeze.

3. Network Activity & Demand

The 30-day average of daily active addresses is around ~695,396, a moderate level.

Daily transaction counts are high (VanEck reports ~460K) indicating that network usage remains strong.

The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio is around 1.51, which some analysts call a “golden cross” — meaning Bitcoin’s valuation is more aligned with real utility / transactional demand than speculation.

4. Dominance & Market Structure

BTC dominance (its share of the total crypto market cap) is declining, but analysts argue this is not due to a full altseason — rather, it reflects deleveraging across the market.

Dormant supply is significant: a large portion of BTC hasn’t moved in years, suggesting strong long-term conviction.

---

📈 Forecast Model (Next 1-3 Months)

Based on combining the above on-chain trends with macro and sentiment risk, here are 3 potential scenarios for the coming 1–3 months:

Scenario Key Drivers Price Range (1-3 mo)

Base / Neutral Continued whale accumulation + moderate macro risk + steady network activity $85K – $105K — a possible consolidation or slow rebound if long-term holders keep supporting accumulation and outflows keep reducing supply on exchanges.
Bearish Macro risk intensifies, long-term holders pause accumulation, or short-term holders sell more $75K – $85K — if liquidity dries up or there’s a deeper risk-off move, BTC could revisit lower support zones.
Bullish Strong inflows, macro relief, or ETF + institutional demand picks up + on-chain demand remains robust $105K – $120K+ — if supply tightens (due to outflows) and demand returns, BTC could push back to or above recent highs.

---

📊 Visual Model (Hypothetical Chart)

Here’s a hypothetical chart model (for visualization only) based on the above on-chain trends and scenarios:

Price
^
| /
| Bull → / ░░
| / ░░
| Base / Neutral →/ ░░
| / ░░
| --/ ░░
| / ░░
| Bearish → / ░░
| / ░░
+----------------------------------> Time (1–3 mo)
$75K $85K $95K $105K $120K

The “base” scenario path is your likely midline rebound or consolidation.

The “bullish” path shoots higher if accumulation + demand accelerates.

The “bearish” path dips if macro risks or liquidity pressures dominate.

---

✅ Risks & Catalysts to Watch

Risks:

Macro tightening / higher interest rates

A drop in on-chain accumulation or a reversal of whale flows

More BTC being deposited back to exchanges and sold

Catalysts:

Strong institutional (ETF) inflows

On-chain accumulation continues or accelerates

Macro easing / liquidity injection

#BTCVolatility #US-EUTradeAgreement #ProjectCrypto #WriteToEarnUpgrade