疯狂的Jerrick

Bullish, this asshole, can it reach 0.1? I set my take profit at 0.1!
I also only started following it yesterday. Because yesterday was basically the second day after the breakout. I just felt that this MEME is the first coin that has really gotten popular on the BSC chain recently. Personally, I don’t think it’ll just die off that quickly!
If we want the market to heat up again, we need a narrative and a coin with a strong profit effect to lead the way!
Bullish—maybe it is, and it’s only the first season!
There’ll be a second season, and a third season afterward!
Of course, this also needs Bitcoin to cooperate. If at this time Bitcoin comes with another daily-chart-level big bullish candle, then it’s over—altcoin MEME season is starting!

Everyone around the world knows that SpaceX is set to release 320 million shares to the market this week, and the previous round of share unlocks has already proven that the unlock landing is a positive catalyst.

This time, it will be a “chip pressure test day,” and it may be different:
1) The reason the first round of unlocks could rally so high is that many big institutions, large financial groups, and big companies were waiting to buy at lower prices to allocate SpaceX into their funds or reserves according to their respective plans. But by the time of the second unlock, these large institutions may already have been configured/allocated to a large extent. So after the second round of unlocks, the real buy-side demand may not be as疯狂 as it was in the first round.
2) From expectations alone, stock unlocks have always been a negative message until the actual event lands. This time it will definitely be accompanied by a pullback, and the size of that pullback will determine investors’ outlook for what comes next. Personally, the shallower the pullback, the more violently the stock will rise after the negative is absorbed.
3) Compared with the previous unlock: before the stock unlock, the night before—before the earnings report was released—SpaceX’s stock went through a frenzy “short squeeze” surge. After the earnings report’s good news was released, a big bearish candle (a long red candle) directly signaled a smooth downturn. Then, once the stock unlock actually landed, Spacex successfully completed a second dip and turned around, and that’s when a smooth uptrend began. This time, there’s inevitably going to be a short-squeeze-like move as well; but this time, there won’t be any earnings report good news as a catalyst, so the upside is relatively limited—most likely staying below 149.
4) Around the stock unlock, there will be two Starlink launch missions. If they succeed, it’s standard procedure. But if there’s any abnormality or failure, it will further amplify the negative sentiment from the stock unlock.

In terms of operations: personally, before the stock unlock lands, I won’t chase longs on any rise; instead, I think it may be an opportunity to attempt shorting. After the stock unlock lands, I’ll decide whether to go long based on the situation, rather than short.
$SPCX
#SpaceX股价涨至140美元

Because I’m holding short positions on SK Hynix and Micron, I’m more concerned about the future price trend of SNDK, as well as the major news/events for these three names in the coming week and the possible expectations.
So I asked ChatGPT whether there would be any major events for these three names in the next week.
The answer I got was that there aren’t any.
Then I started thinking: if SanDisk keeps breaking higher from this level, where would the logic driving the rally come from?
The only two points I can think of are:
1) The US stock market continues to be strong, and Nasdaq and the S&P 500 keep pushing higher in terms of highs.
But from a technical perspective, the earlier level of resistance is still fairly obvious. To break through in one go is relatively difficult, so I’m more inclined to think it will continue to trade in a range. If it does break through, it’s very likely to also trigger another wave in semiconductors/storage, continuing the “storage rally” myth.
2) If any one of the three names gets a sudden positive catalyst, it could potentially drive all three to continue pushing higher in terms of highs.
As for the US market, I believe everyone here knows that once it starts rising, it doesn’t really stop for much—there’s a good chance it could be a one-way move and not come back. So in terms of execution, you definitely need to include a stop-loss that you can tolerate. Then just wait for the market to reveal its own direction.

The above is only my personal trading analysis notes and does not constitute any investment advice.
#SEC审查6只3倍杠杆商品ETF $SNDK

If it were said that today is Sunday and that’s why the liquidity of US stock futures contracts is so weak, I could understand that.
But take a look at our previous 24/7 BTC and Ethereum.
It’s really quite heartbreaking.
Even on Binance—the world’s largest exchange—the BTC candlestick chart is almost like chopsticks; it’s become jagged.
This volatility, this liquidity.
It’s really not just a run-of-the-mill dead calm,
but at the same time it’s also telling us
that even greater volatility may be coming right away.
The long consolidation at high levels for BTC is also nearing its end.
Will it go up or down?
Personally, I think if it doesn’t move down first and then goes straight up,
then it won’t be able to run far.
So we must first see a long 4-hour lower wick,
so that there will be plenty of room for a big rise and a big profit.

On Friday, I went short on SK hynix and MU. The trading logic was that the 60% rally in SanDisk would have a technical pullback.
But judging from the two days of candlestick patterns over the weekend, US stocks are still too bullish.
SanDisk is still too bullish.
Even the follower coins can hold sideways.
I’m genuinely impressed.
However, in my opinion, even if SanDisk doesn’t pull back, SK hynix and MU will still pull back a bit.
Whether it will result in me getting stopped out—I guess we’ll wait and see.
$SKHYNIX

ETF资金在加密货币市场出现了一个相当罕见的情景。
1.昨日加密货币总ETF资金净流入为-0.7M美元，为近90天的第二低（也可能是近360天内的第二低，其他更久的情况我就没有再细查）。上一次出现小于1M的净流入资金也发生在最近一段时间内：7月29日，当时的净流入只有-0.21M。
2.上一次出现这种小于1M的单日ETF资金流入之后，币价其实并没有太大影响，市场仍然继续震荡。但这一次发生在连续下跌的过程中，是否预示着即将出现下一轮较大波动，目前还不确定。只是从各方面迹象来看，反弹非常弱势；下跌倒是很顺畅，也没有特别大的利空，亦没有特别大的利多。只有等到实际跌破62000之后，可能会迎来一波多头的清洗，最终带来一轮更大幅度的下跌。下一个关口看58000。

2.由此可见，加密货币市场的流动性确实已经枯竭。一方面受到美股流动性的冲击，另一方面也受到加密货币熊市的影响。在资金偏好方面，大资金更看好那些有实际公司的合规美股，而不是选择加密货币。

3.昨日还有一个有趣的现象：只有BTC出现了净流出资金，但其他主流币（ETH,HYPE,SOL,XRP）都没有出现净流入资金。这也同样非常罕见。

现在是周末，流动性会进一步缩小，震荡也会进一步收敛。我昨晚已经把BCH、XRP、BTC的空单平掉了，然后今天早上又接回了XRP、BCH的空单。

关于存储（存储板块/个股）：今早我又看了一下存储三傻。按照上一次帖子的预期，SNDK再次创出近期新高；而SKHYNIX、MU并没有继续打开上方空间（没有继续拉升高度）。这就是做空不要做“最强的那个”，所以我又加仓了点MU，继续拿着看看吧。

以上仅是个人交易分析记录，不构成任何投资建议。
#全球股市逼近历史高位 $MU

Took profit on my short positions in BTC and BCH, and kept a small stop-loss on XRP.
The reason is that there’s no bearish news to provide momentum. BTC will only keep consolidating and drifting downward, and it’s unlikely to make a big upward move all at once.
So I closed those positions for now, and will look for a better entry to short again later.

I also shorted SK HYNIX and MU. The reasons are:
1) These two stocks were pulled up entirely by SNDK.
They’re follow-the-leader stocks,
more like “subsidiaries.”
2) Also, the S&P and Nasdaq indices are both in a pullback.
3) And SNDK has reached a relatively major resistance level.
A drop under pressure is more likely.

So I won’t choose to short SNDK,
but instead I’ll short the “subsidiaries.”
If SanDisk pulls back, the subsidiaries’ pullback volatility should be a bit larger.

Today I watched the BTC chart all day. Weakness is its personality.
Tonight, what’s relatively consistent is that CRCL and MSTR’s prices were also dragged down by BTC.
So if earlier these past two days BTC might not have had enough downside momentum,
then tonight BTC’s downside momentum will be even more ruthless.
Other major coins are also catching up on the decline.
With this kind of setup,
I can’t think of any reason it could still rise.
It’s only that if there isn’t a strong bad-news catalyst, it can only keep going in this steady, grinding downtrend.
That’s the situation.
Next, the plan is to shift into defense around the cost basis—then we just watch.

$BTC

This BTC chart looks like something big is about to happen.
I picked two of the weakest tickers from my watchlist and added more short positions.
$XRP $BCH

The trend of SK Hynix has completely beaten me into submission.
I already took a small loss and got out.
Bitcoin also moved to a small profit, then I took it and got back in again.
Mainly, the favorable PPI data came out, and the S&P is already at new highs; many tech stocks are rising. But Bitcoin just won’t rise—it’s extremely stubbornly failing to move up, so I still feel that my earlier viewpoint holds true.
So I ended up getting back in.
Hold on to it for now.
Tomorrow, I’ll check the ETF fund flow—whether there’s inflow or outflow.
$SKHYNIX $BTC

I was wondering why Bitcoin was dropping so smoothly—turns out MicroStrategy has sold coins again for two consecutive weeks.
It’s also possible that recently my own analysis was a bit negligent, causing me to overlook such an important piece of information. I originally planned yesterday to check whether MicroStrategy has publicly updated its recent holdings, but as of now—three days have passed since the last update.
I believe this can roughly explain why the ETF institutions have been so bearish on Bitcoin these past few days.
Last week, Strategy sold more than 1,600 coins, almost the same as the week before last.
Combined with the data from recent weeks, it’s essentially been in a net-sell state for four of the last six weeks, with two weeks having no action.
This contrasts somewhat with the familiar past-market logic of “Strategy repeatedly raising funds to buy BTC.”
If, going forward, it continues to reduce its BTC holdings for another week, then the significance of this signal will be clearly different.
It’s possible that the trigger for the next leg of sell-off will be a chain reaction caused by the market’s confidence dropping to a certain threshold, brought about by MicroStrategy’s sustained multi-week de-risking strategy.
So, based on the combined actions of the ETF funds and MicroStrategy, there really isn’t a reason for BTC to go long.
Better be honest and stay short.
If it rebounds, I’ll short again—it feels like there’s now another layer of reasons to hold the short position.

The above is only my personal analysis notes and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉

I said in the first two posts already that the big pie is weak. Let me explain why I think it’s weak:

1. First, after the CPI was released last night, I clearly felt that the big pie could rise to catch up (fill the gap):

1) Lately, the ETF fund flows haven’t had much negative feedback. For many days before, there were relatively large net inflows in terms of volume. Only in the last two days has it slowed down a bit and turned into net outflows.

2) Meanwhile, most of the other major coins have been rising more strongly than Bitcoin—for example, platform tokens like HYPE, BNB, and OKB. I think they should still have a driving effect on Bitcoin.

But the end result was extremely crappy: it dropped very smoothly.

2. In terms of price action and what it feels like to watch the chart: for example, this chart—everyone can look at this rebound at the places marked 1 and 2. If you put it on a slightly stronger asset, it would at least show some continuity. But right after those points, the very next candlesticks are so weak that they immediately wipe out the earlier upward momentum.

As for the holding experience, you can clearly feel that there are no bulls—like the bulls have already died. That’s why I’m still holding the short positions I opened today.

Today I opened two shorts: one on Micron (Hailisi) and one on the big pie. Both were opened at today’s daytime high points. Relatively speaking, I can keep holding them and watch the volatility during the U.S. stock market session tonight.

Judging by today’s performance of the A-share market, tonight the U.S. stock tech and semiconductor sector stocks should all pull back a bit.

The above is just my personal trading log and does not constitute investment advice.

#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 $BTC

After taking profit on SPACEX, I currently have two positions open: one in Micron (storage), and one in BTC. Let me share my own logic:
1. Last night I already said that BTC is too weak. If you want to go long on crypto, don’t choose BTC—choose other assets. What I’m seeing now is ETH, HYPE, and others that had ETF net inflows yesterday, while BTC is still in a持续净流出 (continuous net outflow) state. This suggests that big capital still isn’t willing to bottom-pick BTC right now. So my current logic is: when there’s a rebound, it’s an opportunity to short BTC.
2. For the storage sector, I’ve seen many big V’s saying this is the bottom and that Micron has reversed. In the past two days, the rebound has indeed been very strong and it has let a lot of dip-buying capital make decent profits. But I still believe that the truly long-oriented big capital has already shifted to other sectors—such as space (SpaceX), and AI large models (Google, Zhipu, MINIMAX, etc.). For now, they probably won’t be coming in yet. Also, I still hold the view that storage may test the lows again (“second dip”). Without a proper second dip, I remain bearish. Of course, if this does break out for real, then I can only say that the profit from that breakout won’t be mine—I only do trades that I understand.
The above is only my personal trading analysis and records, and not investment advice.
#Spacex $SPCX $BTC

Let me talk about what happened in my “500U to 1M challenge.”
1. From my trading records, my recent win rate isn’t actually very high. But it was just one trade on SpaceX that pushed my challenge account up by a huge amount. Almost doubled.
2. This challenge wasn’t something I came up with myself. During a live stream, a fan suggested it, and I took it seriously. I’ve done some challenges before too—those losses were so brutal. So you guys can just watch and have a look; don’t take it too seriously.
3. The records on this public account from previous challenges are still there—none of it has been closed. So when I did the 500U to 1M challenge, it wasn’t that I shut down the account and reopened a new one. It continued from earlier, together with the 2/24 cycle, so you can see my loss situation from the past few months. And if you look back a year, I’m still way underwater.
4. The reason to do a challenge is: not only to climb up from under the water, but to go even farther and be steadier. This process definitely isn’t just improving trading skills—it’s also improving your cognition, your understanding, and your sense of aesthetics at the same time.
5. Frankly, I feel a bit ashamed to say this, but up to now I only have two copy-trading users. And the first one (a good friend of mine) has already gained 190%. This shows how important it is to invest in the right time for a copy-trading leader. If you invest in someone when they’re at their lowest—when they’re out of luck and almost at the end of the road—and then they suddenly turn things around and their business starts running smoothly, then you’ll make a lot of money along with them.
6. I’m thinking that if my 500U challenge really succeeds, then my first copy-trading user would probably be financially free too. Thinking about it feels amazing—but just think about it. Tomorrow will be cruel. The day after tomorrow even more so.

As always, trading has no way of avoiding detours at all. If you take fewer detours, you won’t be able to get out.
Keep each other encouraged.
The above is only my own trading awareness and record, not investment advice.
#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉

I’ve been holding SPACEX for a week now—let me share some of my thoughts.
1. The post from seven days ago already said there was a relatively good chance recently. I also used funds (a public account) to test my logic.
2. The holding experience can’t really be described as “falling first then rising.” As long as the DYOR logic is solid, I generally can hold. I mentioned this before: only when I truly understand the logic behind why I placed the order—my trading logic—can I actually hold with confidence.
3. I’ve held for a full 7 days, using up 2/3 of my challenge account’s funds. The rest of my funds have been moving back and forth in other assets, but this portion is tightly pinned in the order book and hasn’t moved. Still, I’ve been paying close attention the whole time. I think this might be the longest trade I’ve held in the past half year.
4. Since there will be stock unlocks next week, I’ll stick to the original plan. It should be sold off before this Friday. After it’s out, I’ll reanalyze the logic and re-check the trend.

Also, let me talk about Bitcoin (the big one). In the past few days, I was indeed bullish. But after the CPI came out tonight, Bitcoin’s reaction really made me pay attention to it in a new way. I’ve flipped and gone short. It’s just too weak.
Because in the past 5 times—whenever CPI met expectations or came in below expectations—Bitcoin always showed an upward move. But tonight is completely different. So when something is out of the ordinary, there must be something going on. Anyway, I’ve already shorted it. #SpaceX