GEMINI

Liquidity conditions are often the first place to look when evaluating whether the market is preparing for a sustained rally. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90 day SMA) has historically played a key role in this assessment, with a sustained move above the 5 level indicating renewed liquidity inflows.

Such a shift usually reflects improving market participation and stronger conviction among investors. Without this confirmation, upward price movement tends to remain vulnerable and lacks the backing of broad capital involvement.

Monthly #BTC inflows to Binance have dropped to around 5.7k BTC, the lowest level since 2020. This is less than half of the historical average of about 12k BTC and has remained consistently low for several months, pointing to a structural shift rather than a temporary drop.

Since #BTC inflows to exchanges are typically linked to selling pressure, this decline suggests investors are choosing to hold instead of sell. Overall, despite market consolidation and macro uncertainty, the signal remains positive, showing accumulation rather than distribution.

#Bitcoin’s Regime Score has improved sharply, climbing 21 points in just three days from -36.8 to -15.7, while price has moved up only 1.4%. This kind of divergence suggests the market’s underlying structure is stabilizing ahead of price, which often happens during early recovery phases.

The key event today is the FOMC meeting. The interest rate outcome is already reflected in market expectations, so the real impact will come from Jerome Powell’s language. Subtle changes in his stance on inflation, growth, or future policy could quickly shift sentiment in both crypto and traditional markets.

Still Fear 👀

Perpetual futures show a cautious market. Open interest is falling, meaning traders are reducing positions rather than adding new leverage. Funding rates near neutral suggest the move is not driven by excessive longs. This looks more like controlled risk management than panic selling. Lower leverage reduces downside risk but the lack of open interest growth also signals weak upside conviction.

There is still no indication of fresh buying interest, as the 30 day SMA of net flows for both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum spot ETFs remains negative. This reflects ongoing outflows and a lack of conviction from larger investors.

Until inflows return and stabilize, the broader market is likely to stay cautious, with price movements driven more by short term traders than long term demand.

#Ethereum transaction fees are now at their cheapest point since May 2017. This reflects a much calmer network, where sending transactions costs significantly less than usual. Lower fees make Ethereum more user friendly and can encourage more activity from builders and users, even if overall demand on the network is currently quiet 🔥

#Ethereum transaction fees are now at their cheapest point since May 2017. This reflects a much calmer network, where sending transactions costs significantly less than usual. Lower fees make Ethereum more user friendly and can encourage more activity from builders and users, even if overall demand on the network is currently quiet 🔥

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has moved from Extreme Fear to Fear 👀

#XRP interes deschis pe #Binance a atins $1.76B în iulie, dar apoi a scăzut brusc pe măsură ce prețul a scăzut de la $3.55 la $1.83. După lichidări masive, interesul deschis a scăzut sub $500M și a rămas scăzut de atunci de la evenimentul din 10 octombrie. În general, interesul deschis a scăzut cu aproape 60%, ceea ce înseamnă o de-leveraj puternic. Din punct de vedere istoric, astfel de faze ajută la resetarea pieței și au fost adesea urmate de o recuperare bullish odată ce interesul revine.

CryptoQuant data shows that #Bitcoin has suffered about $4.5 billion in realized losses, the highest figure in the last three years. Heavy selling from investors locking in losses, a behavior often seen during intense fear phases. In previous cycles, moments like this have sometimes signaled that the market is nearing exhaustion.

#Bitcoin is trading at $87.3K after a sharp drop, placing price right at a critical on chain area. The spot price is now well below the STH cost basis at $96.5K, meaning most short-term holders are underwater, which often increases fear and reactive selling. At the same time, price is sitting just under the Active Investors Mean at $87.5K, a level that can decide short term direction.

Holding or reclaiming this zone could help stabilize the market, while failure may invite further downside toward the True Market Mean at $80.7K, a level that has historically acted as strong support during corrections. From a broader perspective, the Realized Price at $56.0K remains far below spot and continues to define long term market value.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Still Extreme Fear 👀

PnL-ul net realizat a scăzut la un nivel care nu a fost văzut din martie 2022. Acest lucru indică o realizare extinsă a pierderilor pe piață, reflectând o presiune puternică de vânzare și frica investitorilor. În cicluri anterioare, faze similare au avut loc adesea aproape de perioadele de resetare a pieței, când riscul este ridicat, dar oportunitățile pe termen lung încep să se formeze.

As price pushed higher, ATM implied volatility continued to be sold, indicating that the move was being used as an opportunity to offload risk. Gamma sellers stepped in to harvest premium rather than position for further upside. This divergence between rising price and softening volatility points to controlled, mechanical buying instead of aggressive breakout demand. Historically, this type of volatility response does not align with moves that develop into sustained breakouts.

The Realized Loss by Age metric shows that recent holders are driving the bulk of realized losses, led by the 3-6 month group and followed closely by those holding for 6-12 months. These participants largely represent buyers who entered near recent highs and are now being forced to sell as price moves back toward their cost basis, particularly above the $110K region.

This pattern highlights stress among late stage buyers, where downside pressure is outweighing conviction. Rather than treating the move as a chance to rebuild positions, these holders are prioritizing risk reduction. Their exits add overhead supply near important recovery levels, increasing resistance and making sustained upside extensions more difficult in the near term.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin is showing early signs of bearish pressure after on chain profitability slipped into negative territory for the first time since 2023. This development indicates weakening investor confidence, as more coins are being held at a loss. Market analysts highlight the $80K-$84K zone as a crucial demand area for BTC. How price reacts around this level could define the next major move, either stabilizing the market or accelerating the downside.

Binance #Bitcoin Leverage Ratio has climbed to its highest point since November, highlighting a renewed appetite for high risk trading across the market. This rise in leverage places Bitcoin in a more fragile position, where even small price swings can trigger large liquidation cascades.

Both rallies and pullbacks carry higher risk under these conditions, as heavily leveraged positions are more likely to be forced out. With volatility increasing, traders should remain alert and prioritize disciplined risk control in the current market structure.