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P2P.me used foundation funds to bet on its own raise, then apologized after the backlash.

The startup spent $20,500 on Polymarket trades and reported about $14,700 in profit.

MetaDAO offered refunds as the raise closed at $5.2M, below the targeted $6M milestone.

P2P.me’s latest capital raise drew scrutiny after the startup disclosed that its team traded on Polymarket markets tied to its own fundraising outcome. The company later apologized, saying the move was an inappropriate attempt to signal conviction and that it damaged trust.

We took our prediction markets position because we believed strongly in what we are building, and we wanted to show that conviction in public, with our own name attached. In an environment where many teams ask others to believe before they are willing to back themselves, we…

— P2P.me (TGE arc) (@P2Pdotme) March 28, 2026

The India-based firm said the trades were placed 10 days before its public raise went live on MetaDAO, a Solana-based fundraising and governance platform. P2P.me stated that only a $3 million oral commitment from Multicoin Capital existed at the time, with no signed term sheets or guaranteed allocations.

Trades Tied to a $6 Million Target

According to the company, the positions were opened under an account named “P2P Team” using capital from the project’s foundation account. The trades wagered that the project would reach its $6 million fundraising milestone, while other positions referenced a far larger $140 million commitment threshold.

However, the Crypto Fundraise ultimately closed at $5.2 million, below the $6 million target. Even so, the trades produced a gain as the team had structured positions that paid out on that milestone-related outcome.

A note on the Polymarket positions you've seen on-chain – the account named "P2P Team" is ours.

We wanted to come out honestly. The capital came from our foundation account and all proceeds return to it. Here's the full picture.

10 days before our raise went live, we placed…

— P2P.me (TGE arc) (@P2Pdotme) March 27, 2026

P2P.me said an initial outlay of $20,500 returned $35,212, generating roughly $14,700 in profit. In a separate public explanation, the company said the profit was less than $15,000, but admitted the optics carried broader consequences.

In its apology, P2P.me said the decision created confusion and hurt trust. The company added that it should have let its product, mission, and execution speak without using prediction market bets.

Backers and Platform Partners Respond

The episode also caught key stakeholders off guard. Per reports, two people familiar with the matter acknowledged some of P2P.me’s biggest backers were unaware the startup had traded on its own raise.

Before launching the public offering on MetaDAO, P2P.me had already raised $2 million in a seed round led by Coinbase Ventures and Multicoin Capital. A Coinbase Ventures spokesperson said the firm had not allocated capital beyond that initial round.

https://t.co/nW1dYBRyIc

— Proph3t (@metaproph3t) March 29, 2026

MetaDAO co-founder Prohp3t said the platform would have urged P2P.me to avoid Polymarket had it known about the plan. Prohp3t described the conduct as a guerrilla marketing stunt that went too far, while still saying it was unsupported.

Consequently, to protect investors, MetaDAO offered refunds to participants who wanted to exit before the public raise ended on Tuesday. A spokesperson said refund requests totaled $20,000 out of $6.7 million in committed funds.

Related: New Hampshire Launches $100M Bitcoin-Backed Bond With Moody’s Rating

Rules Tighten as Scrutiny Grows

The controversy arrived just days after Polymarket updated its rules on March 25 to prohibit insider trading. The platform said it rejects trading based on stolen information, illegal tips, or authority sufficient to influence an event’s outcome.

P2P.me, however, said it did not believe it was trading on a done deal, as the fundraising result remained uncertain when the bets were placed. Still, the company said it would implement a formal internal policy on prediction market trading.

The Crypto Fundraise has also landed amid broader political attention on prediction markets. Representatives Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski introduced the PREDICT Act this week to bar lawmakers and senior officials from such trading.

Similarly, a separate bill targeting political insider trading was introduced a day later. At the same time, Polymarket recently partnered with Palantir to build a surveillance system designed to detect manipulation.

For P2P.me, the numbers were modest, but the fallout was not. A small profit of about $14,700 turned a routine raise into a public test of trust, disclosure, and market conduct.

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XRP ETF assets stayed firm even as price weakness kept broader sentiment restrained.

Ripple widened its business reach while policy support kept the token in full view.

Market caution persists, yet steady ETF demand keeps XRP in sharp investor focus.

XRP entered a fresh test as US exchange-traded funds tied to the token held about $1.1 billion in assets during a market downturn. Ripple also closed its long legal fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2025 and kept expanding its business. At the same time, support from Washington and a new Convera partnership added momentum around the asset, even as analysts stayed divided over its recovery path.

Can steady ETF demand, political access, and business expansion lift XRP before Bitcoin returns to strength?

ETF Demand Holds While Skeptics Push Back

Ric Edelman said he does not believe XRP will regain the stature it once had. He said the SEC’s 2020 lawsuit hurt the token’s reputation badly. He described that outcome as sad and unfortunate and argued that the damage still weighs on market perception.

Even so, money has kept flowing into XRP investment products. The seven US XRP ETFs now manage around $1.1 billion in assets. Bitwise’s fund has attracted the largest share of trading activity, while its chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, said the product did not record outflows until March.

That resilience caught the attention of ETF watchers. Eric Balchunas said the inflows looked encouraging because they continued while XRP’s price stayed down. He added that the numbers remain small next to Bitcoin funds, yet still compare well with many other ETFs. He also said Bitcoin products are a freak of nature and should not be the benchmark.

Edelman did not share that view. He argued that the buyers moving into XRP ETFs are the same investors who still expect the token to reclaim its former standing. In his view, the flows remain positive but too small to settle the larger question around XRP’s long-term relevance.

Policy Support Meets a Tough Market

Still, XRP has gained support from the current political climate. President Donald Trump included XRP in the government’s strategic digital asset reserve announcement in March 2025. That move placed the token inside a wider push to position the United States as the crypto capital of the world.

Ripple also deepened its links to that policy effort. The company donated to Trump’s campaign, and its executives attended White House events focused on crypto policy. In February, Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty joined other industry leaders in talks with banking chiefs on market structure legislation.

Trump later backed the industry again when he called for the bill to pass. Even so, analysts said XRP still depends on broader market conditions. Balchunas said the token probably needs Bitcoin to recover first. He added that XRP remains one of the top tokens in the ecosystem and one to watch among altcoins if Bitcoin reaches new highs again.

For now, the wider backdrop remains difficult. Bitcoin trades far below its October peak, and fears over high interest rates continue to weigh on risk assets. The war in Iran has added another layer of pressure. Polymarket traders also show caution, with odds placing XRP’s chances of falling below $1 at 76%.

Related: Bill Morgan and Zach Rynes Clash in Fresh XRP Value Debate

Ripple Expands Through Convera Partnership

Meanwhile, Ripple has continued to grow its commercial business. Convera announced a strategic collaboration with Ripple to offer crypto-enabled payment and treasury services for businesses. The deal links one of the largest commercial payments firms with a major blockchain infrastructure provider at a time when corporate interest in digital payment rails keeps evolving.

Convera Chief Executive Patrick Gauthier said the company had taken a measured approach as digital currencies and stablecoins gained wider use. He said Convera listened to customers and watched the market mature before moving ahead. He also called Ripple a trusted and visionary partner that could help the company meet customer demand.

The announcement added a business expansion angle to XRP’s broader market story. While ETF flows show investor appetite, Ripple’s work with Convera points to growing enterprise use around digital finance tools. That mix of investment demand, policy attention, and business development has kept XRP in focus, even while its price remains under pressure.

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Powell signaled patience, leaving Bitcoin bound as rate-cut hopes stayed subdued.

March payroll data now steers sentiment, with crypto set to react first and swiftly.

Rising volume and a rebound toward $69K show traders bracing for a range break soon.

Bitcoin held near $68,599 at press time, even as two macro events lined up to test the market’s long-running range. According to data, the asset has stayed trapped between $65,000 and $75,000 since early February. Bloomberg reported that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoided signaling near-term rate cuts at Harvard on March 30. 

Traders are now concentrating on the March Jobs Report, scheduled for April 3, which coincides with the closure of US stock and bond markets. Could that data finally force Bitcoin out of its months-long range?

Powell Leaves Rates in Focus

Powell’s Harvard appearance was one of his final public events before his term ends on May 15. Bloomberg described the session as unscripted and framed as a moderated conversation with an introductory economics class. During that appearance, Powell said the Fed faced “unusually high uncertainty.”

He also said monetary tools could not solve inflation driven by oil and other supply shocks. In the same remarks, Powell said the Fed’s policy rate was “in a good place to hold steady.” As a result, the message pointed to patience rather than action.

That stance mattered because Bitcoin did not react strongly to the speech itself. Instead, the absence of guidance shaped the market response. Powell gave no hints on rate cuts and no signal on future policy action, leaving Bitcoin inside its established range.

Powell also addressed the broader fiscal picture. He warned that US national debt was growing faster than the economy and called the path “not sustainable.” He added that delays in fixing the problem “will not end well,” a remark that added another layer to the market backdrop.

BREAKING: Powell just spoke at Harvard for one of his final appearances as Fed Chair.

Here is everything he said.

– The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. A rate hike is still on the table. Inflation must come back to 2% and that will not change.

– US… pic.twitter.com/5hKLnvZzC8

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) March 30, 2026

At the same time, Powell said the Fed had not made as much progress on inflation as it had hoped. He also said supply shocks remained outside the reach of monetary policy. That left traders without a policy catalyst from the March 30 event.

For Bitcoin, that meant the next major trigger shifted to incoming data. Powell made clear that the Fed would not move on words alone. Instead, it would wait for numbers, and the next important number arrives with the March jobs report.

Related: Gemini’s $314M Bitcoin Debt Leaves Recall Risk in Focus

Jobs Report Becomes the Next Catalyst

The report is due on April 3 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, ahead of the next FOMC meeting on April 29. February posted a loss of 92,000 jobs, the weakest monthly result since December 2020. That drop raised pressure on the March release.

FactSet consensus calls for a 57,000-job gain in March. That would mark a rebound, yet it would still sit far below the pre-2026 monthly average of about 180,000. The text also noted that roughly 30,000 healthcare jobs lost in February came from the Kaiser Permanente strike.

If those jobs return, the March figure could improve. Even so, traders are watching two key thresholds. The text said a result above 75,000 could delay rate-cut expectations and push Bitcoin toward $63,000 to $65,000.

By contrast, a print below 30,000, or another negative reading, could bring rate-cut bets forward. Under that scenario, the text said Bitcoin could move toward $70,000 to $75,000. In turn, the report now stands as the clearest short-term catalyst.

CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin had already tried to recover before the release. BTC fell from about $71,450 and slid below $66,000 on March 27. Bears then held price between $65,500 and $67,500 through late March.

Then buyers stepped in on March 31 and pushed price back toward $69,000. CoinMarketCap also showed 24-hour volume rising 21.14% to $43.76 billion, while market capitalization climbed 2.78% to $1.37 trillion. With Good Friday closing US stock and bond markets on April 3, crypto will react alone in real time.

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Moody’s assigned a provisional Ba2 rating to New Hampshire’s $100M Bitcoin-backed bond.

The bond is backed by Bitcoin collateral, with BitGo handling custody and liquidation.

The structure uses 1.60x collateral coverage and a 1.40x LTV trigger to manage risk.

The New Hampshire Business Finance Authority is preparing a $100 million bond deal backed by Bitcoin collateral. According to reports, the transaction has already received a provisional Ba2 rating from Moody’s Investors Service.

That rating places the bonds in speculative-grade territory, two notches below the lowest investment-grade level. Moody’s said the assessment reflects collateral risk, transaction structure, and the role of service providers.

The planned issuance will be split into two classes, though the final balances for each class have not been disclosed. The bonds are being issued through a quasi-public state agency, but public funds are not exposed.

Moody’s described the bonds as limited recourse obligations. That means repayment will come only from proceeds tied to the Bitcoin-backed collateral, not from the State of New Hampshire.

How the Bond Structure Works

According to Moody’s official press release, the transaction is structured around a loan secured by Bitcoin rather than by operating cash flow. Moreover, bondholders would receive interest and principal payments from collateral proceeds if liquidation becomes necessary.

BitGo will hold the collateral in segregated wallets as custodian. It will also act as a liquidation agent, selling Bitcoin when needed to support scheduled bond payments. The structure includes risk controls commonly seen in structured credit markets. Initial collateral coverage is set at 1.60x, while a 1.40x loan-to-value trigger would force mandatory redemption.

Moody’s said those thresholds are consistent with the target rating. The agency also modeled downside scenarios using a 72.06% advance rate and a two-day exposure period. That methodology was tied directly to Bitcoin’s historical volatility and liquidity. Moody’s said those assumptions were necessary as the collateral can experience sharp price swings over short periods.

Why Moody’s assigned a Ba2 rating

The Ba2 rating signals substantial credit risk, according to Moody’s guidance. It also shows that the agency viewed the structure as investable enough to rate, even below investment grade. A provisional rating means the main transaction documents were reviewed before final legal steps are completed.

However, the bonds still need final documentation before the rating becomes definitive. Moody’s said its review considered collateral strength, transaction mechanics, and operational execution. The report highlighted Bitcoin’s volatility as a central factor behind the speculative-grade outcome.

That risk is important as institutions often rely on ratings when setting portfolio limits. Some mandates allow purchases only in investment-grade debt, which this deal does not meet. Still, the rating creates a benchmark for evaluating crypto-backed debt issued through public channels. It places a digital asset-linked structure within a familiar credit framework for bond investors.

Related: Polymarket Bets on Bitcoin Slide as $45K Crash Odds Hit 52%

Why the deal stands out

The bonds appear to be the first-rated Bitcoin-backed bond of this kind in the United States municipal market. That makes the transaction notable even without direct state credit support.

Per reports, the New Hampshire Business Finance Authority approved the project in November. Officials said the program would enable companies to borrow against overcollateralized Bitcoin through a public finance vehicle.

Besides, Wave Digital Assets helped design the structure alongside Rosemawr Management. The authority said fees from the program would support a Bitcoin Economic Development Fund.

That fund is intended to support business growth and financial innovation across the state. The arrangement also separates the public issuer from repayment risk tied to the collateral. Nevertheless, an official launch date has not been announced. Even so, the Ba2 rating marks a major step toward bringing a Bitcoin-backed bond from concept to market.

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Gemini datora 4.619 BTC până la 31 decembrie 2025, lăsând lichiditatea expusă riscului de recuperare.

Împrumutul are o dobândă anuală de 4% până la 8% și poate fi recuperat în orice moment în scris.

Gemini a împrumutat istoric mai mult de 11K BTC și 133K ETH de la Winklevoss Capital.

Gemini a încheiat 2025 cu un împrumut de 4.619 BTC datorat Winklevoss Capital, evaluat la aproximativ 314 milioane de dolari. Datoria nu are o dată fixă de maturitate. De asemenea, permite creditorului să ceară rambursarea în orice moment cu un preaviz scris. Aceste condiții pun o atenție imediată asupra poziției de lichiditate a Gemini și a capacității sale de a gestiona o obligație mare callable.

Cotele Polymarket pentru Bitcoin scăzând sub 45K $ în acest an au crescut temporar la 52%.

Piețele de predicție au rămas împărțite, cu 76% încă așteptând ca Bitcoin să scadă sub 55K $.

Analiștii au urmărit nivelurile de 45K $, 40K $ și 30K $ pe măsură ce riscul de scădere a rămas în centrul atenției.

Polymarket s-a apropiat de o majoritate bearish după ce piața sa privind dacă Bitcoin scade sub 45.000 $ în acest an a ajuns la 52% înainte de a scădea la 51% la momentul publicării. Mișcarea a marcat totuși o creștere de 3% în convingerea de scădere și a evidențiat o concentrare mai accentuată asupra riscurilor în piețele de predicție.

Beeline Q4 revenue rose 127% as origination volume climbed 44% while loan economics improved.

Beeline launched blockchain-recorded equity deals as it expanded into tokenized home finance.

The company ended 2025 debt-free with over $50M in equity and a $100M revenue target in view.

Beeline Holdings reported record fourth-quarter growth on Monday, citing stronger lending activity and improved efficiency at the Nasdaq-listed crypto mortgage lender. According to reports, the company posted $2.5 million in net revenue for Q4 2025, up 127% from a year earlier and 8.3% from the prior quarter.

The quarter also showed heavier origination volume and broader use of blockchain tools in Beeline’s real estate finance strategy. Origination volume reached $84.7 million, up 44% year over year, while Beeline launched BeelineEquity and closed its first blockchain-recorded transactions before year-end.

Revenue Growth Outran Cost Pressures

Beeline’s Q4 Revenue rose during a quarter marked by higher operating expenses, which management largely attributed to non-cash stock-based compensation. Operating expenses increased primarily due to $4.2 million in non-cash stock-based compensation during the period.

Excluding that item, operating expenses increased 19% while revenue climbed 127%, according to the company’s release. Management added that non-cash stock-based compensation represented a significant share of its $27.3 million in annual operating expenses.

The company also reported better loan economics through late 2025 and into January 2026. Average revenue per loan increased 31%, while average cost per loan decreased 18%, extending an efficiency trend that management said would continue into early 2026.

Balance Sheet Strengthened During a Public Market Transition

Beeline said 2025 brought structural changes, including its public listing, debt elimination, and expansion of its technology stack. The company ended 2025 with more than $50 million in total equity and no corporate debt.

Nick Liuzza, Beeline’s co-founder and chief executive, said the company used 2025 to build its platform and improve loan-level economics. He said that work left the business positioned for faster growth while maintaining operational discipline.

Even with those gains, Beeline posted a full-year 2025 net loss of $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter, it reported a net income of negative $8.35 million and operating expenses of $10.55 million.

Analyst coverage remained limited, with one available rating on the shares, listed as a strong buy. Wall Street’s median 12-month price target stood at $4.50, about 109.3% above Beeline’s March 27 closing price of $2.15. At press time, shares were trading at $2.11 on Nasdaq.

Related: Labor Rule May Open 401(k)s to Bitcoin and Alternatives

Blockchain Expansion Opened a New Fee-Based Channel

Beeline’s Q4 Revenue also coincided with a wider move into blockchain-based real estate finance. During the quarter, the company launched BeelineEquity, which it described as a fee-based product tied to home equity.

Management said the new offering targets the $4 trillion home equity market in the United States. The platform aims to tokenize deed-recorded fractional residential equity through a blockchain-enabled structure built with TYTL.

Earlier in March, Beeline announced a joint effort with TYTL Corp. to tokenize deed-recorded fractional equity interests in United States homes using TYTL’s Solana-based infrastructure. The companies said they had completed 11 initial fractional-equity transactions and launched an initial portfolio.

Beeline estimated that every $1 billion in aggregate transaction value could generate roughly $41 million in cumulative revenue potential. That estimate covered facilitation, title, and closing fees connected to the platform’s transaction flow.

Management reiterated its target of reaching a $100 million annual revenue run rate within the next 24 months. The update left Beeline’s Q4 Revenue at the center of a quarter defined by higher scale, better loan margins, and new blockchain-linked activity.

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U.S. prosecutors linked Jonathan Spalletta to two Uranium Finance exploits in 2021.

The April 28 attack drained $53.3 million across 26 pools and shut the platform.

Federal agents seized $31 million as crypto exploits kept pressuring the sector.

U.S. authorities unsealed an indictment against Jonathan Spalletta, a Maryland resident accused of hacking Uranium Finance twice in April 2021 and draining more than $54 million. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York said he surrendered on Monday. Prosecutors charged him with computer fraud and money laundering, and they said he faces up to 30 years in prison.

Prosecutors Detail Two 2021 Exploits

The case centers on Uranium Finance, a BNB Chain fork of Uniswap that launched in April 2021 during the bull market. According to prosecutors, the platform lost funds in two separate attacks within weeks. First, on April 8, 2021, a bad actor exploited a smart contract flaw and withdrew far more rewards than allowed. The U.S. Attorney’s Office said that attack cost the platform about $1.4 million.

“Stealing from a crypto exchange is stealing – the claim that ‘crypto is different’ does not chang that,’” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton. “For the victims, there is nothing different about having your money taken.”https://t.co/jSaPJ0F5LR pic.twitter.com/TbQ1mLfOYp

— US Attorney SDNY (@SDNYnews) March 30, 2026

Later, Uranium Finance struck a private deal with the attacker. That agreement returned most of the funds, yet it let him keep about $386,000 as a fake bug bounty, according to prosecutors.

Then, on April 28, prosecutors said Spalletta exploited another smart contract error that governed withdrawal limits from liquidity pools. That second attack hit 26 separate pools and netted about $53.3 million in cryptocurrencies. As a result, Uranium Finance shut down after the catastrophic loss. Its website later went dark, and victims have had few answers since the exchange ceased operations.

Indictment Outlines Laundering Claims and Asset Seizure

According to the indictment, Spalletta moved the stolen funds through a complex chain of cryptocurrency transactions. Prosecutors said he also used Tornado Cash to obscure the money trail. Federal agents later seized about $31 million in cryptocurrency tied to the hack in February 2025. Authorities released no public details at that time, according to the text.

After that seizure, the criminal case moved forward. Spalletta, 36, of Rockville, Maryland, now faces one count of computer fraud and one count of money laundering. The press release said the computer fraud charge carries a maximum sentence of 10 years. It also said the money laundering charge carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.

He was due to appear before U.S. Magistrate Ona Wang on Monday to hear the charges. The Complex Frauds and Cybercrime Unit is prosecuting the case.

Read More: Hackers Frame “Bug Bounty” Prompts to Access Mexican Government Data

Officials Link The Case to Wider Crypto Crime Risks

U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said Spalletta “exploited smart contracts to steal millions” from Uranium Finance and caused the exchange to shut down because it lacked funds. He added, “Stealing from a crypto exchange is stealing.” Clayton also said, “For the victims, there is nothing different about having your money taken.” He added that Spalletta caused “real victims real losses of tens of millions of dollars.”

How did prosecutors say one alleged attacker turn two smart contract flaws into one of 2021’s major DeFi losses? They said he paired the exploits with laundering tools and then spent part of the proceeds on rare collectibles and antique coins.

The charges arrived as crypto crime remained a persistent threat. PeckShield said crypto-related theft topped $4 billion in 2025, marking a 34% annual increase, while smart contract flaws accounted for a meaningful share.

The text also placed the Uranium Finance case within the broader 2021 wave of exploits. It said bad actors stole more than $2.6 billion through hacks and exploits that year, including the $610 million Poly Network attack.

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Google said Bitcoin may need fewer qubits to crack than prior industry estimates.

Taproot may widen wallet exposure by making public keys visible on-chain by default.

Real-time attacks could exploit Bitcoin’s confirmation window in about nine minutes.

Google’s Quantum AI team said Monday that breaking Bitcoin’s blockchain with quantum computers may require far less computing power than many recent estimates suggested. In a blog post and whitepaper, the team said fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could threaten Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptography. It also said Bitcoin’s Taproot upgrade may widen exposure because it reveals public keys by default.

Lower Qubit Estimates Reshape the Threat Timeline

Google’s researchers said recent discussions often placed the requirement in the millions of qubits. By contrast, the new paper said an attack may need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. As a result, the gap between today’s systems and a practical attack appears smaller.

The team also described two possible attack methods. Each model would need about 1,200 to 1,450 high-quality qubits. That figure sits well below older estimates and may change how investors view the timeline.

Google has already pointed to 2029 as a possible milestone for useful quantum systems. Because of that timeline, the lower resource estimate adds weight to calls for earlier migration. In turn, the findings raise fresh questions about how soon quantum risk could move from theory to planning.

Real-time Attacks Could Target Live Transactions

The paper said a quantum attacker may not need to target dormant or older wallets. Instead, the attacker could watch for a live Bitcoin transaction and act when the public key appears. At that moment, a powerful quantum system could try to derive the private key.

BREAKING: GOOGLE WARNS 6.9M BITCOIN WILL BE VULNERABLE WHEN QUANTUM COMPUTERS BECOME POWERFUL ENOUGH

A new Google Quantum AI whitepaper has identified approximately 6.9 million Bitcoin $BTC vulnerable to future quantum at-rest attacks.

Around 1.7 million BTC sits in old… pic.twitter.com/pCwKrhXL4e

— BSCN (@BSCNews) March 31, 2026

Google said its model lets the attacker complete some work before a target transaction appears. Then, once the public key becomes visible, the system could finish the attack in about nine minutes. Bitcoin transactions usually take around 10 minutes to confirm.

That timing gives the attacker about a 41% chance of redirecting funds before the original transfer settles. What happens if that attack window becomes practical before the industry completes a migration? The paper said Ethereum and some other networks may face less risk from this exact method because they confirm transactions faster.

Exposed Keys and Taproot Add to The Risk

Google’s researchers estimated that about 6.9 million bitcoins already sit in wallets with exposed public keys. That total equals roughly one-third of the total supply. It includes about 1.7 million bitcoin from Bitcoin’s early years and more funds linked to address reuse.

That estimate stands far above a recent figure from CoinShares. CoinShares argued that only about 10,200 bitcoins sit in concentrations large enough to move markets if stolen. The difference shows how firms measure quantum exposure in very different ways.

Related: BTQ Technologies Deploys BIP 360 Testnet to Shield Bitcoin From Quantum Threats

The findings also turned attention toward Taproot, Bitcoin’s 2021 upgrade. Taproot improved efficiency and privacy, yet it also made public keys visible on-chain by default. Google’s team said that the design choice may expand the number of wallets exposed to future quantum attacks.

Google also said it is changing how it discloses sensitive security research. Rather than publish a full attack playbook, the team used a zero-knowledge proof to show that its results hold up without exposing the method. At the same time, governments and industry groups are pushing quantum-safe encryption, while CoinDCX has launched a ₹100 crore fund for customer education, cybercrime support, and digital threat research.

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Labor’s proposal gives 401(k) fiduciaries a defined path for carefully reviewing crypto.

The rule weighs fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, and asset complexity first.

Advisors say most savers may still prefer low-cost broad market index funds today.

The US Labor Department has proposed a rule that could open 401(k) plans to alternative investments, including crypto assets such as Bitcoin. The Employee Benefits Security Administration described the measure as historic. It said the rule gives fiduciaries a clear process for reviewing non-traditional assets. The proposal sets safe-harbor procedures for plan managers. 

Those steps cover performance, fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, and asset complexity. If finalized, the rule would give fiduciaries a structured path to consider crypto without the compliance risks that discouraged adoption in recent years. Could crypto soon move from the market fringe into mainstream retirement menus?

Labor Department Moves to Expand Private Investments in 401(k) Plans

The Department of Labor has proposed a new rule broadening access to private equity and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement plans, delivering on President Trump’s executive order to open new… pic.twitter.com/Is03nvdA8Y

— Washington Eye (@washington_EY) March 30, 2026

How the Proposal Would Work

At the center of the proposal are safe-harbor rules for designated investment alternatives in defined contribution plans. Under those rules, fiduciaries would need to review each option through a documented process. The department said the framework remains neutral on asset classes.

Instead of backing one type of investment, the rule sets out how plan managers should assess choices. They would weigh expected performance and costs first. They would also examine liquidity, valuation methods, suitable benchmarks, and the complexity of crypto assets.

In turn, the Labor Department said the proposal aims to reduce uncertainty for fiduciaries. The EBSA said the Biden administration’s 2022 compliance guidance discouraged crypto offerings in retirement plans. It added that the earlier guidance diverged from ERISA requirements and limited the use of alternatives.

According to a recent CNBC report, the proposal follows an executive order from President Donald Trump issued in August. That order directed the Labor Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to support wider access to alternative assets in 401(k)s.

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said, “This proposed rule will show how plans can consider products that better reflect the investment landscape as it exists today.” Her statement framed the rule as a way to align retirement plans with current markets.

Officials from other agencies also backed the move. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the rulemaking “another step in ushering in President Trump’s Golden Age.” He said the proposal seeks to broaden retirement choices for “millions of Americans” while protecting retirement assets.

Support, Warnings, and Broader Policy Moves

The SEC also took part in developing the proposal, according to the text. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said retirement planning should let Americans take part in innovation and economic growth through diversified, long-term investments. He said the SEC helped formulate the rule.

Supporters argue that alternative investments could give retirement savers broader diversification away from public markets. They also say those assets may offer higher returns. At the same time, some financial advisors say many 401(k) investors lack the experience needed for more complex products.

Those advisors also point to higher risk and higher costs. Josh Brown, chief executive of Ritholtz Wealth Management, told CNBC in October that most 401(k) investors would likely fare better without alternative assets. He said a broad stock market index fund often beats professional investors and keeps expenses low.

Related: Bitcoin Volatility Triggers $200M Liquidations in 75 Minutes

Brown said, “The average investor by definition does not need alternative assets in their portfolio.” He also said there is “absolutely no chance” that 401(k) investors would gain access to the best alternative managers or the best funds.

Even in that case, Brown said, investors would still face steep costs. He said they would “pay through the nose for it” because they lack the buying power to negotiate lower fees. He added, “You are not the sovereign wealth fund of Norway. You will not be treated that way.”

Even so, the proposal fits a wider policy direction. The text said the Trump administration has taken other steps to ease broader retail access to nontraditional asset classes. In that setting, the Labor Department’s plan marks a new stage in the debate over crypto in retirement accounts.

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Bitcoin a șters aproape 200 de milioane de dolari în 75 de minute, în timp ce tauri și urși au fost lichidați pe rând.

O scădere de 1.700 de dolari a șters pozițiile lungi înainte ca o revenire de 1.400 de dolari să lichideze rapid pozițiile scurte.

RSI la 43.99 a semnalat o pierdere de moment în timp ce expirarea opțiunilor și lichiditatea subțire au amplificat oscilațiile.

Bitcoin a suportat o oscilație violentă de 75 de minute care a șters aproape 200 de milioane de dolari în poziții cu efect de levier, deoarece mișcările rapide de preț au pedepsit comercianții de ambele părți. Comentatorul de piață Bull Theory a raportat că activul a scăzut de la 66.710 dolari la 65.000 de dolari în 60 de minute, ștergând mai mult de 185 de milioane de dolari în poziții lungi.

Sam Bankman-Fried linked crypto payments to the fast rise of autonomous AI agents.

Trump called Bitcoin “very powerful” and backed a U.S. crypto leadership push in Miami.

Visa, Stripe, Coinbase, and Mastercard are building tools for agent-led digital payments.

Jailed cryptocurrency fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried tied digital asset payments to automated commerce after President Donald Trump gave cryptocurrency a central role at a Miami investment summit. In a post on X, he said payments are no longer driven solely by people, as software agents increasingly need to transact as well.

It's not just people who want to pay you in crypto, increasingly it's AI agents.

Crypto is the future of AI-native payments.

And @realDonaldTrump is the first president to see the national statregic potential of both crypto and AI. https://t.co/ROArUnx1Lf

— SBF (@SBF_FTX) March 29, 2026

The remark turned a political speech into a wider debate about how automated systems could move money on the internet. The exchange followed Trump’s appearance at the Future Investment Initiative Priority Summit, held from March 25 to March 27 at the Faena Hotel in Miami Beach.

During that speech, Trump called Bitcoin “very powerful” and said more people now prefer to pay with cryptocurrency. He also said the United States would become the world’s Bitcoin superpower and the undisputed crypto capital.

“Bitcoin is very powerful… So many people now want to pay you in crypto,” Trump remarked.

A Payment Argument, Not Just a Market Slogan

Bankman-Fried’s post stood out because it shifted attention from trading toward infrastructure. He argued that crypto fits a world where software agents handle payments, settle tasks, and manage funds without waiting for human approval.

That framing presented blockchain rails as tools for machine commerce rather than only as speculative assets. He also described Trump as the first president to recognize the strategic potential of digital assets and artificial intelligence.

“Crypto is the future of AI-native payments. And @realDonaldTrump is the first president to see the national statregic potential of both crypto and AI,” Bankman-Fried acknowledged. 

That claim landed days after World Liberty Financial launched payment infrastructure for blockchain-based agents. The system is designed to let those agents manage funds and transact on-chain.

Trump’s Miami Speech Set the Sequence

Trump’s remarks mattered as they placed digital payments inside a broader economic message. Speaking to investors, executives, and policymakers, he linked cryptocurrency to national competitiveness, technology, and capital flows. The timing also underscored how sharply his public posture has shifted since 2021.

Bankman-Fried then extended that message into a practical payment use case. Instead of focusing on consumers alone, he pointed to agents that could buy services, complete tasks, and move value across networks. That distinction helped explain why autonomous payments are gaining serious attention.

Related: Trump Pledges to Crown U.S. the World’s Bitcoin Superpower and Crypto Hub

Major Firms Are Already Building the Same Model

Industry examples reinforced that point with product announcements and strategy documents. Visa said in its 2026 payments outlook that agentic commerce is moving into the mainstream. It described a near-term model in which software systems transact on behalf of consumers and businesses.

Similarly, Stripe has already moved deeper into that model. It said machine payments now let developers charge agents directly for API calls and other usage through stablecoin micropayments. The company also partnered with OpenAI on shopping experiences within ChatGPT, integrating commerce tools into artificial intelligence interfaces.

Coinbase made a parallel case through its Agentic Wallets product. The company said the wallets enable non-custodial, autonomous payments for compute, data, storage, and related services via the x402 standard. Mastercard also said tokenized currencies and autonomous agents are reshaping commerce and then launched a crypto partner program tied to established payment rails.

Taken together, those developments explain why Bankman-Fried’s claim reached beyond social media. His post matched a pattern already visible across politics, fintech, and blockchain infrastructure. In that pattern, crypto was presented not as a theory but as a working payment layer for machine-led transactions.

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The BTC hash rate rose as the price stayed below its peak, widening the network value gap.

CoinShares found that older mining rigs struggled as costs rose and margins shrank.

Network strength held firm even as miners sold reserves and financial pressure built.

Bitcoin’s mean hash rate kept rising even as the asset traded below its recent peak, according to a Glassnode chart shared on X by analyst Michael van de Poppe. The chart showed network strength climbing past 1.1 zettahashes per second in 2025 and nearing 1.3Z before a modest pullback into 2026. At the same time, CoinShares reported that many miners faced tighter margins, rising production costs, and negative cash flow in late 2025.

Hash Rate Rises While Price Pulls Back

The Glassnode chart tracked two long-term trends. The orange line showed Bitcoin’s mean hash rate rising from near zero in the early 2010s to above 1.1Z by 2025. It later approached 1.3Z before easing slightly. Meanwhile, the black price line moved from below $1 in Bitcoin’s early years to above $100,000 near the latest cycle top. After that, the price slipped, yet the network’s computing power kept climbing.

Source: X

Van de Poppe used that divergence to challenge claims about AI disrupting Bitcoin mining. In his X post, he wrote, “‘AI will kill #Bitcoin, because data centers will stop mining Bitcoin’. Absolutely bullshit.”

He said the narrative gained traction because it matched fear during weaker market periods. He also said Bitcoin was down “a mere 20% from the peak” and noted that previous bear markets also showed downward ticks. He added that hash rate had risen lately while price kept falling. Can Bitcoin mining be fading when the network keeps adding computational power at a historic pace?

Research Details: Pressure on Mining Economics

While the network expanded, CoinShares described growing financial pressure across the mining sector. The firm said miners using mid-generation hardware below the S19 XP faced negative cash flow unless power costs stayed below $0.05 per kilowatt-hour.

That cost structure left roughly one-sixth to one-fifth of global mining capacity below breakeven. As a result, older and less efficient operators faced the strongest squeeze.

CoinShares also said the weighted average cost of production for publicly listed miners reached $79,995 per Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025. The report linked that increase to higher electricity costs, stronger network difficulty, and added depreciation from AI and HPC infrastructure.

At the same time, hash prices stayed compressed. CoinShares recorded three straight negative difficulty adjustments in late 2025, a pattern it said had not appeared since July 2022 and pointed to miner capitulation.

Legacy S19-series machines faced added strain during winter. CoinShares said higher seasonal energy costs and ERCOT grid curtailments increased uneconomic mining hours and pushed more operators toward AI and HPC workloads. Even so, CoinShares said the network hash rate remained resilient. It peaked near 1,160 EH/s in October 2025, then fell about 10% by December and early 2026 as uneconomic operations stopped and inspections hit Xinjiang, China.

Related: Bitcoin Hashrate Drops as Miner Stress Builds: VanEck Data

By early March 2026, CoinShares said the network had stabilized near 1,020 EH/s. The firm said miners with cheap power, state backing, or next-generation ASICs still operated profitably, while publicly listed miners sold more Bitcoin from treasury holdings.

The report named Core Scientific, Bitdeer, and Riot among firms that liquidated notable treasury amounts. In turn, Van de Poppe argued that the disconnect between price and hash rate “provides an opportunity” because Bitcoin looked undervalued against what he called fair price.

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Barclays said Trump remarks now fail to calm equities as headline fatigue builds.

Oil stayed firm while stocks slipped after Trump pointed to fresh Iran deal progress.

Reuters said yields, inflation, and slower growth kept stagflation fears in focus.

In a twisting turn of events, Barclays says the so-called Trump put is fading as investors stop responding to President Donald Trump’s market-moving comments with the same confidence. The bank said traders had treated Trump’s remarks on Iran and policy as an informal backstop for risk assets. Yet stocks fell and oil rose even after Trump said Iran was “begging” to make a deal. That shift, Barclays said, shows headline fatigue is weakening the market support that once followed presidential rhetoric.

Headline Fatigue Starts to Weigh on Markets

Barclays said Trump’s de-escalation talk had helped keep equities afloat during the war. At the same time, the bank warned that repeated reversals were eroding that effect. In a Friday note, analysts wrote, “Trump’s de-escalation talk has kept equities afloat. But constant flip-flopping and headline fatigue is starting to undermine the put efficacy.”

Barclays says the "Trump put" is losing its power to boost markets and calm jittery investors. https://t.co/gnUNNUJdpQ

— Business Insider (@BusinessInsider) March 27, 2026

Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that Iran was “begging” to make a deal. Still, markets did not follow the earlier pattern. Stocks moved lower during Friday’s session, while oil prices pushed higher and extended Thursday’s moves.

The Nasdaq 100 then slipped into correction territory, down more than 10% from its peak, as technology shares continued to sell off. Barclays said the risk had become more serious because the same messages no longer produced the same market response. The bank added, “The risk is that constant flip-flopping and headline fatigue is starting to undermine the efficacy of the ‘Trump put seriously’.”

A Tougher Backdrop Limits the President’s Market Sway

Barclays said equities rose and oil fell on Trump’s comments Monday, but those moves faded when his remarks did not materialize. The bank said the same pattern returned on Wednesday. As a result, investors appeared less willing to chase short rebounds tied only to headlines.

Reuters reported on March 24 that Wall Street had swung between hopes for diplomacy and fears that the conflict could drag on. At the same time, higher Treasury yields and stronger oil prices added pressure. The Dow fell 0.18%, the S&P 500 lost 0.37%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.84% as traders weighed geopolitical risks against inflation concerns.

Reuters also said investors faced a stagflation-style setup marked by higher energy costs, slower activity, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Traders were no longer pricing in rate cuts this year. Can presidential rhetoric still lift stocks when oil, yields, and inflation all move against risk assets?

Related: Major U.S. Banks Expand Bitcoin Trading and Custody Market

Markets Still Show Resilience Despite the Strain

Barclays said the broader market had not fully broken down despite the chaotic news cycle and mixed signals from officials. The bank wrote that “this week’s resilient price action suggests the ‘market wants to go up.’” Even so, it tied that resilience to a fragile balance rather than renewed faith in headlines.

According to Barclays, the S&P 500 was down only 2.3% for the week, while oil prices were also lower across the same period. Those figures suggested that investors had not fully abandoned equities. Still, the bank’s note showed that traders were becoming more selective about what could drive a rebound.

Reuters added that U.S. business activity had slowed to an 11-month low in March. It also said the energy shock had revived inflation fears and complicated the outlook for central banks. Barclays said those pressures help explain why the Trump put is losing force as markets focus more on prices, yields, earnings expectations, and the risk of a deeper stagflationary shock.

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An X analyst identified Bitcoin’s halving cycle as a stable eigenmode in log space.

SSA and DMD isolated a 4.19-year cycle around Bitcoin’s long-term power law path.

Crypto research linked Bitcoin’s 2026 decline to tighter liquidity and wider macro strain.

Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle returned to focus after X analyst @Giovann35084111 said advanced signal analysis found it as a core pattern in Bitcoin’s price behavior. At the same time, reports indicate that Bitcoin fell from its $127,000 peak in October 2025 to a $60,000 floor in under five months as liquidity tightened and risk appetite faded. Together, those views frame the current downturn as both a mathematical cycle and a macro-driven selloff.

Analyst Says Eigenvalue Decomposition Exposed a Core Cycle

On X, @Giovann35084111 described Bitcoin price as a complex signal made of several underlying patterns. The analyst said eigenvectors act like “fundamental notes” inside that signal and rank those patterns by importance. The analyst said the work used Singular Spectrum Analysis in log space rather than linear space. That choice mattered because Bitcoin moved from about $0.05 to $125,000 across six orders of magnitude.

THREAD: We just proved Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle is a fundamental eigenmode of the system

Using eigenvalue decomposition (SSA + DMD), we discovered something remarkable about Bitcoin's price dynamics. Let me explain what we did and why it matters…

1/ What are… pic.twitter.com/5gPpgd3h40

— Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW (@Giovann35084111) March 30, 2026

From there, the analyst said the price history was turned into a trajectory matrix and then decomposed with Singular Value Decomposition. In that framework, Eigenvector 1 captured 98.70% of the variance and represented a power law.

The post said that the dominant mode showed a price proportional to time, raised to 5.7. The analyst called that pattern Bitcoin’s “base note” and its fundamental attractor. Next, the analyst said Eigenvectors 2 through 6 accounted for 1.29% of variance and captured oscillations around the trend. Then Dynamic Mode Decomposition extracted the Koopman eigenvalues tied to those oscillations.

According to the post, Modes 5 and 6 showed a period of 1,530 days, or 4.19 years. The analyst linked that frequency to Bitcoin’s halving cycle and wrote, “The 4-year cycle isn’t just a coincidence or narrative.”

Log Space, Reconstruction, and the Critical-System Claim

The analyst said the detected oscillation had an eigenvalue magnitude of 0.9985. That figure suggested a slightly decaying but stable pattern around the broader trend. The post also tied the result to renormalization group theory. In that explanation, Bitcoin behaves like a critical system near a phase transition, with a power law fixed point and log-periodic oscillations.

The analyst argued that linear space buried the four-year cycle in noise. By contrast, log space made the cycle visible because halvings affect price through percentage changes rather than simple additive moves.

To test the structure, the analyst reconstructed Bitcoin’s price dynamics with six eigenvectors. The post said the reconstruction produced an R² of 0.9678 and described the outcome as stronger than the raw data.

The analyst then wrote, “The math works. The physics checks out.” The post’s bottom line said Bitcoin’s power law and four-year cycle are “fundamental eigenmodes of a complex dynamical system.” If the cycle remains intact, does the latest drawdown reflect breakdown or reset? 

Reports Point to Liquidity, Not Theory, for 2026 Drop

CoinDesk described the first quarter of 2026 as a shaky start after Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high. The report said the drop to $60,000 looked severe, yet argued the market may be doing what it needs to build a stronger cycle.

The report said crypto usually absorbs heavy selling when macro conditions weaken, geopolitical tensions rise, and traditional markets slide. It listed elevated counterparty risk, tight liquidity, weak technical trends, fading ETF inflows, and stress in credit and banking markets.

Researchers also said crypto still trades mainly on global liquidity conditions despite wider adoption narratives. When liquidity expands, digital assets tend to rally, and when liquidity contracts, they often fall sharply.

Several forces now appear to be pulling liquidity from the system, according to the report. The Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet, while seasonal tax payments drain liquidity from the Treasury system.

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Tom Lee says Ethereum has outperformed gold since the war began despite crypto’s slump.

Ethereum fell below $2,000 as $104 million in long liquidations hit the market.

Fundstrat data shows Ethereum beat Bitcoin, gold, and stocks since late February.

Tom Lee is urging investors to rethink traditional safe-haven positions as digital assets begin to recover during a period of geopolitical conflict. The Fundstrat head of research said crypto has looked stronger than gold since the war started, even after a deep marketwide selloff erased nearly $2 trillion in value since October.

His comments arrived as the Ethereum price remained under pressure in spot trading, despite its stronger relative performance since late February. Ether fell 2.38% over the last 24 hours to $1,993 at press time, slipping below the closely watched $2,000 level as traders tracked liquidation data, ETF flows, and weakening technical indicators.

Crypto Rebound Reshapes Safe-Haven Debate

Lee said the current pullback in digital assets has created what he described as a “money trade” for the next year. He argued that crypto has outperformed since the war began, while gold has underperformed during the same period.

The broader backdrop remains severe. Bitcoin is down 47% from its October peak, while Ethereum has fallen nearly 60% over the same stretch. Similarly, many memecoins have dropped more than 90%, highlighting the scale of the correction across the sector.

Still, Fundstrat’s March research report showed Ethereum up 17% on a relative basis versus the S&P 500 since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February. The report also said Ether outperformed Bitcoin, gold, real estate, MSCI World Energy, and Mag-7 technology stocks during that period.

this speaks for itself… https://t.co/b9en5vvdrU pic.twitter.com/XNLujuvJ2w

— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) March 26, 2026

Lee also acknowledged that markets remain difficult to navigate. He said the conflict with Iran, investor caution, and widespread misinformation have made positioning more challenging as many participants prefer to stay on the sidelines.

Ethereum Faces Pressure Despite Relative Strength

Even with improved relative performance, Ethereum’s spot market structure has weakened. ETHUSD broke below the $2,000 support level, marking a notable shift in market sentiment after repeated rejection near $2,200 earlier in the week.

Source: CoinGlass

Besides, market data showed more than $115 million in long liquidations over the last 24 hours, adding to price pressure. At the same time, demand indicators weakened as traders responded to lower conviction and softer market participation.

Institutional flows also turned negative. Spot ETH exchange-traded funds recorded $206.8 million in outflows across seven consecutive days, reducing a source of buying support that had previously helped steady the market.

Source: SoSoValue

Activity across decentralized markets also slowed. Declining decentralized exchange volumes and a falling ETH futures premium added to the bearish tone and reinforced the view that positioning had weakened.

Related: Trump Pledges to Crown U.S. the World’s Bitcoin Superpower and Crypto Hub

Technical Signals Point to Lower Support Zone

Technically, Ethereum’s daily chart reflected a softer structure across several indicators. The Relative Strength Index stood at 42, placing it in neutral territory but moving closer to oversold conditions below 30. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence also pointed lower.

Source: TradingView

The MACD line was at -9.70, below the signal line at 6.66, indicating downward momentum remained in place. Based on those readings, traders are watching the $1,900 to $1,800 range as the next major support zone. That area is being monitored for signs of buyer demand that could stabilize ETH’s price after the break below $2,000.

However, a failure to hold that zone would leave Ethereum exposed to a deeper move toward this year’s low near $1,747. For now, the contrast remains sharp: Ethereum has outperformed several major benchmarks during wartime markets, yet its immediate technical picture remains under clear pressure.

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Trump a spus că SUA vor deveni superputerea Bitcoin a lumii și capitala cripto.

Discursul a legat politica cripto, reglementarea și rezervele de conducerea financiară a SUA.

Bitcoin a rămas volatil în timp ce tensiunile din Orientul Mijlociu au adăugat presiune asupra activelor de risc globale.

Președintele SUA, Donald Trump, a folosit summitul FII PRIORITY Miami 2026 pentru a plasa criptomoneda în centrul mesajului său economic, spunând că Statele Unite vor deveni superputerea Bitcoin a lumii și hub-ul cripto. Remarcile sale au marcat una dintre cele mai clare susțineri politice ale activelor digitale din partea unui președinte american în exercițiu și au încadrat cripto ca parte a unei competiții mai ample pentru capital, inovație și influență financiară globală.

CoinShares says rising costs are now driving public bitcoin miners toward AI revenue.

Lower hash price and shrinking margins now strain mining balance sheets further.

Bitcoin sales and larger debt loads now finance a broader pivot into AI data hubs.

Public Bitcoin miners are moving into AI infrastructure as mining costs rise above market prices, according to CoinShares’ Q1 2026 mining report. The report said the weighted average cash cost reached about $79,995 per bitcoin in Q4 2025. CoinDesk also estimated losses near $19,000 per BTC mined last week while bitcoin traded between $68,000 and $70,000.

AI contracts redraw the sector

CoinShares said the public mining sector has announced more than $70 billion in cumulative AI and high-performance computing contracts. Core Scientific’s expanded agreement with CoreWeave alone carries a $10.2 billion value over 12 years.

TeraWulf has secured $12.8 billion in contracted HPC revenue. Hut 8 also signed a $7 billion, 15-year lease for AI infrastructure at its River Bend campus. In parallel, Cipher Digital reached a multi-billion-dollar deal with Google-backed Fluidstack.

CoinShares said listed miners could derive as much as 70% of revenue from AI by the end of 2026, up from about 30% today. Core Scientific already gets 39% of total revenue from AI colocation. TeraWulf stands at 27%, while IREN is at 9% and expanding with up to 200 megawatts of liquid-cooled GPU capacity.

The economics now drive that shift. CoinShares placed bitcoin mining infrastructure at roughly $700,000 to $1 million per megawatt. By contrast, AI infrastructure costs about $8 million to $15 million per megawatt, yet it offers higher and steadier returns. At the same time, hash price fell to about $28 to $30 per petahash per day in early March.

Debt rises as bitcoin holdings fall

CoinShares said miners are financing the transition through debt and bitcoin sales. IREN now carries $3.7 billion in convertible notes across five series. TeraWulf holds $5.7 billion in total debt through convertible notes and senior secured notes at its compute subsidiary.

Cipher Digital issued $1.7 billion in senior secured notes in November. As a result, its quarterly interest expense jumped from $3.2 million for the first nine months to $33.4 million in Q4 alone. Those debt loads now resemble large infrastructure projects rather than traditional mining operations.

Miners are also shrinking treasury positions. CoinShares said public miners have reduced BTC treasuries by more than 15,000 BTC from peak levels. Core Scientific sold about 1,900 BTC worth $175 million in January and planned to liquidate substantially all remaining holdings in Q1 2026.

Bitdeer reduced its treasury to zero in February. Riot Platforms sold 1,818 BTC worth $162 million in December. Marathon, the largest public holder with 53,822 BTC, also widened its March 10-K policy to allow sales from its full reserve as pressure rose on its $350 million bitcoin-backed credit facility.

Related: BlackRock Brings BUIDL to Uniswap DeFi Exchange Trading Hubs

Hashrate slips while valuations diverge

That shift creates a clear tension. The same companies that secure the bitcoin network are selling bitcoin and redirecting capital into AI. What happens to Bitcoin’s security budget if that migration keeps accelerating?

The network hashrate already reflects strain. CoinShares said it peaked near 1,160 exahashes per second in early October 2025 and later fell to about 920 EH/s. The network also recorded three straight negative difficulty adjustments, the first such run since July 2022.

Markets have priced the split. Miners with secured HPC contracts now trade at 12.3 times next-twelve-month sales. Pure-play miners trade at 5.9 times. That gap gives companies another reason to deepen AI exposure.

Meanwhile, mining geography keeps changing. The United States, China, and Russia now control about 68% of global hashrate, while the U.S. gained roughly two percentage points in Q4. Paraguay and Ethiopia also entered the global top 10 through HIVE’s 300-megawatt Paraguay operation and Bitdeer’s 40-megawatt Ethiopia facility.

CoinShares now forecasts hashrate could reach 1.8 zetahashes by the end of 2026 and 2 zetahashes by the end of March 2027. Still, that path depends on bitcoin recovering to $100,000 by year-end. If prices stay below $80,000, CoinShares expects lower hash price, deeper hashrate pressure, and more miner exits as next-generation machines such as Bitmain’s S23 series and Bitdeer’s SEALMINER A3 roll out.

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Curtea din Singapore a tras o linie legală după ce atacurile online au urmat exploit-ul Resupply.

Decizia a arătat că disputele DeFi pot declanșa acțiuni în instanță atunci când vina publică devine abuzivă.

Legătura percepută a Curve cu Resupply a adâncit consecințele și a lărgit daunele reputaționale.

O instanță din Singapore a scos o dispută cripto din chat-urile Telegram și postările de pe X și a dus-o în registre legale formale. Curtea pentru Protecția împotriva Hărțuirii a ordonat două persoane să înceteze să facă declarații amenințătoare sau abuzive despre contribuabilul Curve Finance, Haowi Wong, după o dispută de câteva luni legată de exploit-ul Resupply de 9,3 milioane de dolari.

Bitcoin și ether s-au slăbit pe măsură ce randamentele Trezoreriei au rămas ridicate și speranțele de ușurare s-au estompat.

Volatilitatea obligațiunilor a depășit petrolul și a devenit cea mai clară sursă de stres macro pe piață.

Traderii acum urmăresc randamentele și riscurile politice mai atent decât titlurile de știri generate de război.

Prețurile criptomonedelor au scăzut din nou vineri, pe măsură ce randamentele Trezoreriei au devenit principalul semnal macro al pieței. Bitcoin s-a tranzacționat aproape de $68,639 și ether aproape de $2,061.81 după o scurtă rally de ușurare la începutul acestei săptămâni care s-a estompat. Randamentul Trezoreriei SUA pe 10 ani a rămas aproape de 4.42%, în timp ce speranțele pentru o de-escaladare rapidă în Iran s-au slăbit și traderii s-au mutat de la titlurile despre petrol la condiții financiare mai stricte. Schimbarea a lăsat activele digitale să se tranzacționeze împreună cu complexul de rate mai larg, nu împotriva lui.