Reason: Price is facing strong resistance within the sell zone. Expecting bearish continuation if sellers maintain control, with downside targets toward 4060.$XAU
Price is currently trading right below a large low-leverage liquidation cluster.
Due to the strong push to the upside we saw over the past few hours, BTC has already started to tag that liquidity. However, the majority of that cluster still sits above.
On the downside, liquidity continues to build between $58k and $60k, creating a notable target below current price.
I do believe that this downside liquidity will get swept at some point. But for now, I expect BTC to push further into the upside cluster and at least take out the equal highs before we see a potential reversal.$BTC
Recent, am tot vorbit despre unde cred că se va forma fundul, dar rar despre alternative.
Așa că iată un scenariu care, în opinia mea, este mai puțin probabil, dar cu siguranță încă în sfera posibilului.
Tocmai am văzut mult așteptatul sweep de $60k, unde BTC a format un nou minim local la $59k.
Până acum, prețul a găsit acceptare înapoi deasupra minimului anterior, făcând un retest al deschiderii trimestriale din ce în ce mai probabil.
Așteptarea mea principală este totuși o respingere de la acel nivel, urmată de o ultimă coborâre.
Cu toate acestea, având în vedere că majoritatea traderilor retail se așteaptă ca fundul să se formeze undeva în intervalul $55k-$49k, cred că un scenariu în care BTC devansează acele niveluri ar putea fi, de asemenea, posibil.
De exemplu, un al doilea sweep al minimului local spre $58k, urmat de o gamă laterală agitată înainte ca BTC să înceapă, în cele din urmă, următoarea sa tendință majoră de creștere.
Acest scenariu nu s-ar alinia doar bine cu cronologia tipică a unei piețe bear, ci și cu diminuarea retragerilor pe care le-am văzut în ultimele cicluri.$BTC
$BTC After sweeping the low at $60.7k, price pushed higher into a local resistance level. This was followed by a short-term pullback before buyers stepped back in once again, pushing price back into that area. BTC has now printed both a higher low and a higher high, flipping short-term structure bullish. If we get a confirmed close above $62.9k, a sweep of the equal highs at $64.3k becomes increasingly likely. In case of another rejection, however, focus shifts back towards the $60.6k-$61.1k region, where price has bounced several times over the past two days. Considering both market structure and liquidity, I currently favor a sweep of the equal highs before we see a potential reversal.
After sweeping the previous quarterly low, we saw a small relief rally where price bounced roughly 9%.
If price continues to find acceptance back above this low, a push towards the quarterly open at $68.3k becomes possible. This is currently also the main target from a liquidity perspective.
However, I still believe that we have some more downside left before BTC eventually forms its bottom. That’s why I believe a move into that level could act as a possible bearish retest before BTC begins its final push lower.
Should we lose the pqL, the next main area of interest on the downside becomes the unfilled CME gap at $54k, which also lines up very well with the Fibonacci Golden Pocket of the previous bull run.
This is one of the key areas where I would expect a meaningful reaction and therefore where another one of my spot limit orders is placed.
Below that sits the July 2024 low. This low has remained untouched since the final leg higher of the previous bull run and is another level where I plan to accumulate spot.
For price to revisit that level, however, it would require significant selling pressure, as the $55k-$60k region is currently being defended quite aggressively by buyers.$BTC $ETH $BNB
If buyers don't defend this level, price will revisit $59k.
After retesting the key breakdown zone between $64k and $66k, price retraced back into the Golden Pocket of the current relief rally and swept the previous low.
In the process, BTC broke the short-term uptrend and invalidated bullish structure by printing a lower low.
That's why I believe any bounce from this support level is unlikely to be sustainable.
While a sweep of the recent high at $64.2k is still possible, I would rather view it as another bearish retest within the broader downtrend rather than a continuation higher.$BTC $ETH $XRP