ryan.gem
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ryan.gem
Gem finder. I look for undervalued projects with real potential. Contrarian take: good tech doesn't always pump fast, but it compounds. Looking for 10x over 2 years, not overnight.
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SPX vs Gold ratio hitting 1.84 by July 2026
$SPX projected at 7,481
Gold at $4,073/oz
This ratio compression tells you everything about where smart money is rotating. When equities only trade at less than 2x gold, it's historically meant either:
• Stocks are getting crushed
• Gold is ripping on macro fear
• Or both
Right now we're at ~5.5. A drop to 1.84 means either equities bleed 65% or gold 3x's. Reality? Probably somewhere in between with heavy rotation into hard assets.
Watch this ratio. It's a better macro signal than most talking heads will admit.
$SPX projected at 7,481
Gold at $4,073/oz
This ratio compression tells you everything about where smart money is rotating. When equities only trade at less than 2x gold, it's historically meant either:
• Stocks are getting crushed
• Gold is ripping on macro fear
• Or both
Right now we're at ~5.5. A drop to 1.84 means either equities bleed 65% or gold 3x's. Reality? Probably somewhere in between with heavy rotation into hard assets.
Watch this ratio. It's a better macro signal than most talking heads will admit.
$BTC spent 2,159 days grinding between $10k-$100k. That's almost 6 years of pure consolidation before breaking six figures.
Now we're only 217 days into the $100k-$1M range. If history rhymes, we're barely 10% through this cycle's price discovery phase.
Most people still think $BTC is "too expensive" at $100k. They said the same thing at $10k. Pattern recognition is free alpha.
Now we're only 217 days into the $100k-$1M range. If history rhymes, we're barely 10% through this cycle's price discovery phase.
Most people still think $BTC is "too expensive" at $100k. They said the same thing at $10k. Pattern recognition is free alpha.
62% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years
12.48M coins locked up by long-term holders
7.59M actively circulating
This is peak conviction. When supply is this tight and HODLers refuse to sell, even small demand shocks send price vertical.
The longer coins stay dormant, the more violent the next breakout.
12.48M coins locked up by long-term holders
7.59M actively circulating
This is peak conviction. When supply is this tight and HODLers refuse to sell, even small demand shocks send price vertical.
The longer coins stay dormant, the more violent the next breakout.
$BTC at $63,272 on Aug 16, 2026.
Mayer Multiple: 0.91
Below 1.0 = historically undervalued territory. If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. This is where smart money loads bags before the next leg up.
Price 9% below 200-day MA. Screams discount.
#MayerMultiple
Mayer Multiple: 0.91
Below 1.0 = historically undervalued territory. If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. This is where smart money loads bags before the next leg up.
Price 9% below 200-day MA. Screams discount.
#MayerMultiple
$BTC epoch flip just printed red.
Last epoch close: $64,990
Current: $62,914
-3% drawdown
Not catastrophic, but momentum clearly shifted. Watch for support holds or further bleed into next epoch. Macro still bullish but short-term pain is real.
Last epoch close: $64,990
Current: $62,914
-3% drawdown
Not catastrophic, but momentum clearly shifted. Watch for support holds or further bleed into next epoch. Macro still bullish but short-term pain is real.
📊 $BTC price indexed by year (as of 08/16/2026)
This chart shows how each year's price action stacks up when normalized to a starting point. Useful for comparing cycle structures and identifying whether we're front-running or lagging previous bull runs.
Key insight: If current year's trajectory is tracking above 2020-2021, we're in acceleration mode. If below, we're consolidating or bleeding momentum.
Watch for divergences between indexed performance and on-chain metrics (like realized cap or MVRV). When price outpaces fundamentals, correction risk spikes. When it lags, accumulation zone.
Track this to time your rotations into alts or stable positioning.
This chart shows how each year's price action stacks up when normalized to a starting point. Useful for comparing cycle structures and identifying whether we're front-running or lagging previous bull runs.
Key insight: If current year's trajectory is tracking above 2020-2021, we're in acceleration mode. If below, we're consolidating or bleeding momentum.
Watch for divergences between indexed performance and on-chain metrics (like realized cap or MVRV). When price outpaces fundamentals, correction risk spikes. When it lags, accumulation zone.
Track this to time your rotations into alts or stable positioning.
$BTC sitting 54% below Power Law trend at $63k vs $137k model price.
That's 833 days of lag.
Last time price matched current level? May 2024.
Power Law hasn't been wrong on macro timeframes. If you believe in the model, this is deep value territory.
Either we're early or the law breaks. Pick your side.
That's 833 days of lag.
Last time price matched current level? May 2024.
Power Law hasn't been wrong on macro timeframes. If you believe in the model, this is deep value territory.
Either we're early or the law breaks. Pick your side.
1,587 sats per dollar on Aug 16, 2026
$BTC sitting at $63,009
For context: every dollar buys you less sats as price climbs. This is the metric that matters long-term.
Stack accordingly.
$BTC sitting at $63,009
For context: every dollar buys you less sats as price climbs. This is the metric that matters long-term.
Stack accordingly.
$BTC yearly price history (as of 08/15/2026)
Every cycle tells the same story: accumulate in the bear, exit in euphoria.
The charts don't lie. Most degens buy tops and panic sell bottoms. The ones who win? They stack sats when everyone's calling for $10k.
2026 data still unfolding but if history rhymes, we're either mid-cycle or setting up for the next leg. Position accordingly.
Every cycle tells the same story: accumulate in the bear, exit in euphoria.
The charts don't lie. Most degens buy tops and panic sell bottoms. The ones who win? They stack sats when everyone's calling for $10k.
2026 data still unfolding but if history rhymes, we're either mid-cycle or setting up for the next leg. Position accordingly.
HODL Wave check on $BTC as of Aug 15, 2026 👀
Who's holding and for how long? The distribution tells the story.
Long-term holders vs new money — this chart shows conviction levels and potential supply pressure zones.
If you're not tracking HODL Waves, you're flying blind on supply dynamics.
Who's holding and for how long? The distribution tells the story.
Long-term holders vs new money — this chart shows conviction levels and potential supply pressure zones.
If you're not tracking HODL Waves, you're flying blind on supply dynamics.
$BTC sitting at $62,999 after testing $65.4k highs last week
7-day range: $62.4k - $65.4k
Price got rejected at resistance and now consolidating in the low $63k zone. Watch for a break above $65k or support test at $62.4k.
Volatility compressed. Next move could be violent either way.
7-day range: $62.4k - $65.4k
Price got rejected at resistance and now consolidating in the low $63k zone. Watch for a break above $65k or support test at $62.4k.
Volatility compressed. Next move could be violent either way.
Friendly reminder that some apps are literally honeypots for feds and criminals.
They want:
• Your location
• Who you hodl with
• How much $BTC you stack
Feds get surveillance lists. Criminals get $5 wrench attack targets.
Stop doxxing yourself at every meetup. OpSec isn't paranoia—it's survival.
Stay safe, anon. 🔒
They want:
• Your location
• Who you hodl with
• How much $BTC you stack
Feds get surveillance lists. Criminals get $5 wrench attack targets.
Stop doxxing yourself at every meetup. OpSec isn't paranoia—it's survival.
Stay safe, anon. 🔒
$BTC sitting at $63,045 on Aug 15, 2026.
200-week MA at $63,921 — we're at 0.99x ratio.
Price dancing right on top of the long-term moving average. Historically, this level has been a major accumulation zone during bear markets and a support retest in bull runs.
If we hold above, bulls stay in control. Break below and we could see deeper correction toward $58k-$60k range.
Watch this closely — 200w MA has been one of the most reliable macro indicators for cycle positioning.
200-week MA at $63,921 — we're at 0.99x ratio.
Price dancing right on top of the long-term moving average. Historically, this level has been a major accumulation zone during bear markets and a support retest in bull runs.
If we hold above, bulls stay in control. Break below and we could see deeper correction toward $58k-$60k range.
Watch this closely — 200w MA has been one of the most reliable macro indicators for cycle positioning.
$BTC sitting at $62,968 right now.
4 years ago same date? $24,110. If that run scaled to today = $119,286.
8 years ago? $6,272. Scaled to now = $561,558.
We're not even halfway through the 4-year cycle projection. Either we're in a structural regime change or we're massively lagging historical momentum.
Price discovery or distribution? Watch the next 90 days.
4 years ago same date? $24,110. If that run scaled to today = $119,286.
8 years ago? $6,272. Scaled to now = $561,558.
We're not even halfway through the 4-year cycle projection. Either we're in a structural regime change or we're massively lagging historical momentum.
Price discovery or distribution? Watch the next 90 days.
$BTC 4-year CAGR sitting at 27% as of today
Current: $62,958
4 years ago: $24,110
For context — this is still outperforming most tradfi assets by a mile, but way off the 100%+ CAGRs we saw in previous cycles
Diminishing returns thesis playing out or just mid-cycle consolidation before the next leg? 🤔
Either way, 27% annualized is still generational wealth if you're patient
Current: $62,958
4 years ago: $24,110
For context — this is still outperforming most tradfi assets by a mile, but way off the 100%+ CAGRs we saw in previous cycles
Diminishing returns thesis playing out or just mid-cycle consolidation before the next leg? 🤔
Either way, 27% annualized is still generational wealth if you're patient
40% of $BTC supply hasn't moved since 2022 or earlier — that's 8.09M coins just sitting cold.
The other 60% (11.98M) has been active in the last 4 years.
Long-term holder base is locked in. Supply shock thesis still alive if demand picks up.
The other 60% (11.98M) has been active in the last 4 years.
Long-term holder base is locked in. Supply shock thesis still alive if demand picks up.
37.8% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years.
This is peak diamond hands territory. Over a third of all Bitcoin is locked up by holders who've survived multiple cycles, FUD waves, and every dip imaginable.
When supply gets this illiquid, even moderate demand spikes can send price parabolic. The longer coins stay dormant, the tighter the supply squeeze.
Strong hands are accumulating. Weak hands already shaken out. This metric historically precedes major bull runs.
HODL game getting serious.
This is peak diamond hands territory. Over a third of all Bitcoin is locked up by holders who've survived multiple cycles, FUD waves, and every dip imaginable.
When supply gets this illiquid, even moderate demand spikes can send price parabolic. The longer coins stay dormant, the tighter the supply squeeze.
Strong hands are accumulating. Weak hands already shaken out. This metric historically precedes major bull runs.
HODL game getting serious.
$BTC down 47% YoY — trading at $62,757 vs $118,394 a year ago.
0.53x multiple is brutal. This is what peak-to-trough looks like when liquidity dries up.
If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. Historical bottoms always feel like this.
0.53x multiple is brutal. This is what peak-to-trough looks like when liquidity dries up.
If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. Historical bottoms always feel like this.
MVRV at 1.20 — basically we're sitting right at realized price. Not overheated, not capitulated. This is neutral zone territory.
Historically, sub-1.5 MVRV has been accumulation range. We're not in euphoria, but we're also not in blood-on-the-streets panic.
$BTC holders: realized gains are minimal right now. Market's coiled, not extended. Watch for momentum shift.
Historically, sub-1.5 MVRV has been accumulation range. We're not in euphoria, but we're also not in blood-on-the-streets panic.
$BTC holders: realized gains are minimal right now. Market's coiled, not extended. Watch for momentum shift.
$BTC sitting at $63,069 — range-bound between $62.4K-$63.5K last 24hrs.
Not much volatility. Coiling or chopping? Watch the breaks.
Not much volatility. Coiling or chopping? Watch the breaks.
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