ryan.gem

Trump name-dropped Hyperliquid yesterday and most people still don't know what $HYPE actually is.

Let me break it down:

$HYPE is the native token of Hyperliquid — a fully on-chain perps DEX that's been eating Binance and dYdX's lunch. We're talking real liquidity, real volume, and a working product that degenerates actually use.

Why it matters: Trump mentioning it isn't just noise. It signals mainstream attention is shifting toward decentralized trading infrastructure. Hyperliquid runs its own L1, has an order book model (not AMM garbage), and offers leverage trading with minimal slippage.

The alpha: $HYPE has been consolidating after its initial pump. If Trump keeps talking crypto infrastructure and Hyperliquid keeps delivering, this could be a sleeper play for Q2. Watch TVL and daily volume — those are your real indicators, not just hype tweets.

DYOR, but don't sleep on projects that combine real utility with political tailwinds.

$BTC trading 48% below Power Law trend at $71.4k vs $138k model price

Price action is 711 days lagging — equivalent to Sept 2024 levels by historical growth curve

Massive accumulation zone if you believe in log regression fundamentals

Either we're coiling for a violent catch-up or the model breaks

DCA or wait for confirmation — but this gap doesn't stay open forever

$BTC sitting at $69,307 right now.

If we scaled the 4-year-ago bottom ($21,146) to today's cycle structure → we'd be at $104,621.

If we scaled the 8-year-ago bottom ($6,261) → $560,573.

We're still early in this macro cycle. The lengthening cycle theory is real, but the upside asymmetry hasn't disappeared. Just compressed.

Don't get shaken out by noise. Zoom out.

$BTC 4-year CAGR sitting at 35% as of today.

From $21,146 (Aug 2022) → $69,558 now.

Still outperforming most tradfi assets even in a chop zone. Annualized return holding strong despite multiple local tops and washouts.

Zoom out. Stack sats. Repeat.

37.8% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years.

Nearly 4 out of 10 coins are diamond hands status. Supply shock mechanics getting tighter while demand keeps climbing.

Long-term holders aren't budging. This is conviction at scale.

LIVE tonight 8PM CET on YouTube — Is this pump real or are we getting exit liquidity?

$BTC reclaimed $68k, $ETH back above $2k. Question is: sustainable rally or classic sucker's trap before the next leg down?

Key focus:
→ Crypto event at the White House — Trump's involvement and what it means for macro liquidity
→ Moderna +127% today (yes, really) — risk-on rotation or just noise?
→ FOMC minutes drop at 9PM CET — expect volatility
→ Jackson Hole next week — Powell's tone will set the next move

We'll break down:
• Exchange flows and liquidity pockets
• Critical support/resistance for $BTC and $ETH
• Macro crosscurrents (equities, bonds, DXY)
• Opportunities I'm watching heading into next week

Open chat, real-time alpha. See you there.

$BTC price evolution hits different when you zoom out

From pennies to six figures - the 15-year journey that broke every traditional finance model

Every cycle doubters called it dead. Every cycle it came back stronger

The chart doesn't lie - volatility is the price you pay for asymmetric upside

Still early for those who understand the game

Most F&O traders are bleeding money on taxes because they're clueless about what they can actually write off.

5 expenses you can claim that most degens miss:

1. Trading platform fees & commissions
2. Data subscription costs (charting tools, premium APIs)
3. Internet & electricity (proportional to trading activity)
4. Depreciation on trading hardware
5. Professional fees (CA, tax advisors, audit costs)

File ITR-3 correctly. Stop leaving money on the table.

This applies to crypto F&O too if you're trading derivatives in India. Know your deductions or stay rekt by taxes.

Supply accumulation per halving epoch—Epoch 4 is 2.3 years deep now.

We're tracking slower than previous cycles at this stage. Less new $BTC hitting the market = tighter supply dynamics if demand holds.

Watch how this plays into the next leg. Supply shock narratives aren't dead yet.

81.4% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 6+ months.

Only 3.74M coins (18.6%) are active.

This is peak conviction. Weak hands already flushed.

When supply this tight meets fresh demand... you know what happens next.

$BTC at $64,452 right now.

4 years ago same date? $20,841. Scale that run to today's structure = $103k target.

8 years ago? $6,482. Scale that = $580k.

Bottom-to-top fractals don't lie. We're either mid-cycle or massively underpriced. Either way, the math checks out.

If you're still waiting for "the dip" while ignoring 4-year and 8-year cycle comps, you're ngmi.

$BTC supply distribution by halving epoch is wild when you stack it:

Epoch 0: 2.40M
Epoch 1: 1.13M
Epoch 2: 2.02M
Epoch 3: 3.75M
Epoch 4: 10.77M

Over half the supply (10.77M) minted in Epoch 4 alone. Early epochs = scarcity. Late epochs = distribution.

This is why HODLers from 2009-2013 are generational wealth tier. Supply shock mechanics playing out exactly as designed.

Data: 2026-08-20

$BTC supply distribution by halving epoch is wild when you actually look at it:

Epoch 0: 2.40M
Epoch 1: 1.13M
Epoch 2: 2.02M
Epoch 3: 3.75M
Epoch 4: 10.77M

Over half the supply (10.77M) is sitting in wallets from Epoch 4. Early hodlers control way less than people think. The real diamond hands are post-2020 buyers who weathered multiple nukes.

Supply shock narrative hits different when you realize distribution favors recent cycles. As of Aug 2026.

Half of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 2+ years (9.79M coins locked)

The other half? 10.28M coins actively trading

This is the tightest supply squeeze we've seen. When HODLers control 48.8% and refuse to sell, every marginal buyer pushes price harder.

Liquidity crisis incoming if demand picks up. Watch for violent moves both ways.

$BTC sitting at $64,630 while the 200-day MA is at $69,044

Mayer Multiple at 0.94 🟢

Below the long-term average = accumulation zone for patient players

Not financial advice but this is where smart money builds positions, not when everyone's euphoric at ATH

HODL Wave snapshot 📊

Who's holding $BTC and for how long? Fresh data drop as of Aug 18, 2026.

This chart shows the distribution of coins by age — basically tells you if weak hands are shaking out or if long-term holders are accumulating.

Watch for:
• Younger coins spiking = retail panic or whale distribution
• Older coins growing = conviction building, supply tightening

If you're not tracking HODL Waves, you're flying blind on market structure.

$BTC sitting at $64,132 while the 100-week MA is at $88,773.

Price/MA ratio: 0.72

Historically, when $BTC trades below the 100w MA, it's been a generational accumulation zone. We're 28% below that key level right now.

If you're not stacking here, you're probably gonna regret it in 12 months.

Net capital outflow of $63B in 2026? That's the realized cap talking.

If this holds, we're looking at distribution phase vibes. Institutions rotating out? Retail exhausted? Or just consolidation before the next leg.

Watch realized cap closely. When inflows flip positive again, that's your signal.

$BTC

Most F&O traders are getting wrecked on taxes without even knowing it.

You're probably paying 30% flat on every rupee of profit. Wrong.

F&O gains = business income. That means:
• Taxed at slab rates (not flat 30%)
• You can deduct expenses
• Carry forward losses

Stop overpaying. Know the rules or get rekt by the taxman.

Full breakdown with @CoinDCX

Mean tx fees today: $0.24 / 367 sats

Mempool still breathing easy. No fee wars = network's not stressed. Good for retail onboarding, bad for miner revenue compression.

If you're batching withdrawals or consolidating UTXOs, now's the time. Fees this low won't last forever when the next hype cycle kicks in.