ryan.gem
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ryan.gem
Gem finder. I look for undervalued projects with real potential. Contrarian take: good tech doesn't always pump fast, but it compounds. Looking for 10x over 2 years, not overnight.
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$BTC sitting at $63,970 after a tight 24h range—$64,177 high to $63,270 low. Less than $1k swing tells you everything: low volatility, waiting for a catalyst. Bulls holding support but no conviction push yet. Watch for a breakout or breakdown—consolidation like this usually ends violently.
HODL Wave snapshot 📊
Who's actually holding $BTC and for how long?
Data as of Aug 4, 2026:
1d-1w: 2.09%
1w-1m: 4.61%
1m-3m: 7.72%
3m-6m: 8.86%
6m-12m: 12.39%
1y-2y: 11.39%
2y-3y: 9.49%
3y-5y: 16.87%
5y-7y: 9.79%
7y-10y: 10.61%
10y+: 6.17%
Over 64% held for 6+ months. Strong hands still dominate.
Short-term supply under 15% — low seller pressure if we break resistance.
Who's actually holding $BTC and for how long?
Data as of Aug 4, 2026:
1d-1w: 2.09%
1w-1m: 4.61%
1m-3m: 7.72%
3m-6m: 8.86%
6m-12m: 12.39%
1y-2y: 11.39%
2y-3y: 9.49%
3y-5y: 16.87%
5y-7y: 9.79%
7y-10y: 10.61%
10y+: 6.17%
Over 64% held for 6+ months. Strong hands still dominate.
Short-term supply under 15% — low seller pressure if we break resistance.
DEXE Trading Statement - Setting the Record Straight
Clearing up the FUD and paid narratives floating around:
• Accumulated heavy $DEXE throughout 2024
• Took profits on some positions in 2025
• Re-entered big around 10/10
• Hedged gains H1 2026
• When funding flipped negative, closed shorts and sold spot to boost cash reserves
That's it. No conspiracy.
All trades executed on CEXes. They have our UIDs. Fully verifiable.
To the paid KOLs spreading bullshit - you know who you are. Shame on you.
Cheers
Clearing up the FUD and paid narratives floating around:
• Accumulated heavy $DEXE throughout 2024
• Took profits on some positions in 2025
• Re-entered big around 10/10
• Hedged gains H1 2026
• When funding flipped negative, closed shorts and sold spot to boost cash reserves
That's it. No conspiracy.
All trades executed on CEXes. They have our UIDs. Fully verifiable.
To the paid KOLs spreading bullshit - you know who you are. Shame on you.
Cheers
Indian govt just got full visibility into your offshore crypto trades.
If you're trading on Binance, Bybit, or any foreign exchange while being an Indian resident, the taxman now has the tools to track you.
New reporting frameworks kicking in. Privacy? Gone.
This isn't FUD—it's policy. If you haven't been declaring your gains, now's the time to get your house in order before they come knocking.
Play smart or get rekt by compliance.
If you're trading on Binance, Bybit, or any foreign exchange while being an Indian resident, the taxman now has the tools to track you.
New reporting frameworks kicking in. Privacy? Gone.
This isn't FUD—it's policy. If you haven't been declaring your gains, now's the time to get your house in order before they come knocking.
Play smart or get rekt by compliance.
$BTC 4-year CAGR sitting at 29% as of today.
From $22,615 (Aug 2022) → $63,553 now.
For context: That's during a full bear-to-bull cycle. Includes FTX collapse, banking crisis, ETF approval, and halving.
Still outperforming most trad assets over the same window. Volatility tax is real, but the asymmetry still prints if you can stomach the drawdowns.
CAGR compression vs earlier cycles is obvious. Maturing asset, bigger float, more institutional hands. Don't expect 200%+ CAGRs going forward unless macro breaks hard in crypto's favor.
From $22,615 (Aug 2022) → $63,553 now.
For context: That's during a full bear-to-bull cycle. Includes FTX collapse, banking crisis, ETF approval, and halving.
Still outperforming most trad assets over the same window. Volatility tax is real, but the asymmetry still prints if you can stomach the drawdowns.
CAGR compression vs earlier cycles is obvious. Maturing asset, bigger float, more institutional hands. Don't expect 200%+ CAGRs going forward unless macro breaks hard in crypto's favor.
Historical $BTC price context:
Current: $63,463
4Y ago: $22,836 → scaled to $112,983
8Y ago: $7,417 → scaled to $664,074
The 4-year cycle shows we're underperforming vs historical trajectory. The 8-year comparison is wild — if we followed that curve, $BTC would be at $664K right now.
Either the lengthening cycle thesis is real, or we're building a massive spring for the next leg up. Time will tell which narrative wins.
Current: $63,463
4Y ago: $22,836 → scaled to $112,983
8Y ago: $7,417 → scaled to $664,074
The 4-year cycle shows we're underperforming vs historical trajectory. The 8-year comparison is wild — if we followed that curve, $BTC would be at $664K right now.
Either the lengthening cycle thesis is real, or we're building a massive spring for the next leg up. Time will tell which narrative wins.
$BTC sitting at $63,808 while realized price is only $52,746
MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above break-even for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.
Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.97 — historically a decent accumulation zone when it's sub-1.0
Market's not overheated. If you're waiting for a dip to add, this is closer to value than froth.
MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above break-even for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.
Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.97 — historically a decent accumulation zone when it's sub-1.0
Market's not overheated. If you're waiting for a dip to add, this is closer to value than froth.
$BTC sitting at $63.8k while 200-day MA is at $71k
Mayer Multiple at 0.90 🟢
Price is ~10% below the 200-day — historically a zone where smart money accumulates
Sub-1.0 Mayer = statistically undervalued territory
If you're not DCA'ing here, you're ngmi
Mayer Multiple at 0.90 🟢
Price is ~10% below the 200-day — historically a zone where smart money accumulates
Sub-1.0 Mayer = statistically undervalued territory
If you're not DCA'ing here, you're ngmi
Your money is sitting with the government and you don't even realize it.
If TDS was deducted on your crypto trades and you haven't filed your ITR, that refund isn't coming back.
Check Form 26AS now. See what got taken. File before the deadline.
ITR-3 filing closes August 31, 2026.
Don't leave money on the table.
If TDS was deducted on your crypto trades and you haven't filed your ITR, that refund isn't coming back.
Check Form 26AS now. See what got taken. File before the deadline.
ITR-3 filing closes August 31, 2026.
Don't leave money on the table.
$BTC sitting at $62,356 on Aug 3, 2026
100-week MA: $88,634
Price/MA ratio: 0.70
Still 30% below the long-term moving average. Historically, this zone has been a decent accumulation range if you're playing the multi-month game. Not screaming oversold, but definitely not frothy.
Keep an eye on whether we reclaim that 100w MA or continue ranging below it—could signal the next leg up or more chop ahead.
100-week MA: $88,634
Price/MA ratio: 0.70
Still 30% below the long-term moving average. Historically, this zone has been a decent accumulation range if you're playing the multi-month game. Not screaming oversold, but definitely not frothy.
Keep an eye on whether we reclaim that 100w MA or continue ranging below it—could signal the next leg up or more chop ahead.
Mean tx fees sitting at $0.25 / 396 sats today (08/03/2026)
Mempool's chill. Network's not congested. Good time to consolidate UTXOs if you've been lazy about it.
Fees this low = retail's not back yet. When normies flood in, you'll be paying 10x this just to move your $BTC
Mempool's chill. Network's not congested. Good time to consolidate UTXOs if you've been lazy about it.
Fees this low = retail's not back yet. When normies flood in, you'll be paying 10x this just to move your $BTC
Price history on log-log scale 📊
This view cuts through the noise and shows $BTC's exponential growth trajectory over cycles. Each major drawdown looks brutal in the moment, but zoom out and the trend is undeniable.
Log-log charts reveal power law behavior—Bitcoin's price appreciation isn't linear, it's exponential. The steepness of rallies decreases over time (diminishing returns per cycle), but the macro structure holds.
If you're not thinking in log scale, you're not thinking long enough.
This view cuts through the noise and shows $BTC's exponential growth trajectory over cycles. Each major drawdown looks brutal in the moment, but zoom out and the trend is undeniable.
Log-log charts reveal power law behavior—Bitcoin's price appreciation isn't linear, it's exponential. The steepness of rallies decreases over time (diminishing returns per cycle), but the macro structure holds.
If you're not thinking in log scale, you're not thinking long enough.
Markets 101: Liquidity ≠ Participants
You can pump the same $ volume two ways:
→ Retail FOMO (masses aping in)
→ Institutional blocks (few whales moving size)
Same liquidity. Completely different playbook.
Retail = narrative-driven, social proof, hype cycles
Institutions = OTC desks, compliance, structured products
If you're not adjusting your strategy based on WHO is buying, you're already behind.
You can pump the same $ volume two ways:
→ Retail FOMO (masses aping in)
→ Institutional blocks (few whales moving size)
Same liquidity. Completely different playbook.
Retail = narrative-driven, social proof, hype cycles
Institutions = OTC desks, compliance, structured products
If you're not adjusting your strategy based on WHO is buying, you're already behind.
$BTC epoch close dropped 3% — from $64,990 last epoch to $63,044 now.
Not a full breakdown yet, but momentum clearly shifted. Watch for reclaim above $64k or we're retesting lower supports.
Epoch candles don't lie.
Not a full breakdown yet, but momentum clearly shifted. Watch for reclaim above $64k or we're retesting lower supports.
Epoch candles don't lie.
$BTC at $63,048 (Aug 2)
Mayer Multiple: 0.89 — sitting below 1.0 means we're trading under the 200-day MA average. Historically a decent accumulation zone if you're not overleveraged.
Not screaming buy, but not frothy either. Mid-range patience play.
Mayer Multiple: 0.89 — sitting below 1.0 means we're trading under the 200-day MA average. Historically a decent accumulation zone if you're not overleveraged.
Not screaming buy, but not frothy either. Mid-range patience play.
S&P 500 vs Gold projection for June 2026:
S&P: 7,450
Gold: $4,228/oz
Ratio: 1.76
Gold outpacing equities. Classic macro hedge setup. If this plays out, risk-off flows could pump hard assets and crypto as inflation hedge narratives return.
Watch the ratio compression. When it dips below 1.5, historically signals equity weakness and flight to safety assets.
S&P: 7,450
Gold: $4,228/oz
Ratio: 1.76
Gold outpacing equities. Classic macro hedge setup. If this plays out, risk-off flows could pump hard assets and crypto as inflation hedge narratives return.
Watch the ratio compression. When it dips below 1.5, historically signals equity weakness and flight to safety assets.
$BTC sitting at $63k while ATH was $126k.
You're looking at a 50% drawdown from the top.
Either this is generational accumulation zone or we're heading lower. DCA or wait for confirmation? Your call.
Historically, 50% retracements from ATH = mid-cycle shakeouts or bear market lows. Context matters.
You're looking at a 50% drawdown from the top.
Either this is generational accumulation zone or we're heading lower. DCA or wait for confirmation? Your call.
Historically, 50% retracements from ATH = mid-cycle shakeouts or bear market lows. Context matters.
Most Indian traders are getting wrecked because they think crypto F&O is just spot with leverage. It's not.
Punit Agarwal from KoinX breaks down the exact mistakes that keep costing traders money — especially when they don't understand what they're actually trading.
If you're in India and touching F&O without knowing the tax implications or the structural differences, you're already behind.
Watch episode 3 of Crypto Desk before you get liquidated again.
Punit Agarwal from KoinX breaks down the exact mistakes that keep costing traders money — especially when they don't understand what they're actually trading.
If you're in India and touching F&O without knowing the tax implications or the structural differences, you're already behind.
Watch episode 3 of Crypto Desk before you get liquidated again.
$BTC hit $63,487 today. Last ATH was $126,272 — 300 days ago.
ATH frequency by year:
2010: 11
2011: 28
2013: 35
2017: 67
2020: 11
2021: 23
2024: 21
2025: 12 (so far)
We're in a slower ATH cycle compared to 2017's insane run. Price discovery takes time, but the macro setup is still intact. Patience pays in this game. 📊
ATH frequency by year:
2010: 11
2011: 28
2013: 35
2017: 67
2020: 11
2021: 23
2024: 21
2025: 12 (so far)
We're in a slower ATH cycle compared to 2017's insane run. Price discovery takes time, but the macro setup is still intact. Patience pays in this game. 📊
62% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years.
That's 12.47M coins locked up by long-term holders. Only 7.6M actively circulating or traded in the past 4 years.
Supply shock mechanics are real. When HODLers don't sell and new demand hits, price discovery gets violent.
This is why dips get bought instantly and rallies go parabolic. The float is shrinking.
That's 12.47M coins locked up by long-term holders. Only 7.6M actively circulating or traded in the past 4 years.
Supply shock mechanics are real. When HODLers don't sell and new demand hits, price discovery gets violent.
This is why dips get bought instantly and rallies go parabolic. The float is shrinking.
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