Kevin Warsh is actually quite reasonable economist.
Just listening to 6m old interview with him. On the one hand he is moderately “austrian” economist (usually associated with right/conservatives) but on the other hand he understand limitations of any modern economy theory not just “austrian”.
He’s actually aware of the fact that none of mainstream economies get the concept money right and this is one of the reasons they are quite distant from reality and lack predictive power.
He is talking a lot about inflation and believes it is responsibility of FED to maintain price stability and moreover that it actually has power and tools to do so (wrong). But to be fair that is what legislation abou FED says so in a sense he should say that.
It is just important to understand that FED fighting inflation is hardly compatible with crypto “debasement ” trade we’ve been benefiting from recently.
Will he cut rates? Probably in the beginning - yes. But mid/long -term he will try to stablize inflation with higher interest rates. We will likely see less “liquidity injections” from him. And he may even try to reform the FED - which is not that bad idea in the long run.
So our new hope in crypto is not “debasement” trade anymore but wider adoption. Which is, if think about it carefully is not that bad if broad adoption actually happens.
It is hard to make predictions. But it is reasonable to believe Trump want bull market to resume before the mid-term. Beyond that date uncertainty is too big to predict anything.
I’d say buy the rumors in Q1-Q2 and sell the news in Q3-Q4 😁
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