秦海洋

Tomorrow is what Trump calls 'Liberation Day.' The plan for reciprocal tariffs will be announced at 3 PM Eastern Time. So what will the plan look like? According to several informed sources, there are currently at least three proposals on the White House's desk.

Option 1: A unified tax rate with an additional 20% imposed on all countries. This is the version that Trump himself favors the most. It is also what he refers to as the 'simplest and fairest' method. He even stated on Air Force One, 'Start with all countries first.' This 'one-size-fits-all' approach is akin to setting a global entry fee; to sell goods in the U.S., you must first pay 20%. The advantage is its simplicity and straightforwardness, requiring no separate negotiations, which aligns with Trump's 'cutting through the clutter' style; however, the cost is high, as it could easily trigger a global chain reaction. Agencies like Moody's, EY, and Deutsche Bank predict that once implemented, the economy would hit the brakes directly, leading to unemployment, inflation, and market panic all at once.