🇺🇸 🇮🇷 With the Islamabad MoU seemingly dead or dying, the possibility of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran may no longer be as far-fetched as it once seemed.
Airstrikes can damage Iran's military, but they may never be enough to permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
As long as Iran can keep deploying drones, missiles, and naval mines from its coastline, commercial shipping can remain under constant threat.
That's why pressure for a ground operation could begin to grow.
One that would aim to seize and secure key coastal areas, eliminate launch sites, and deny Iran the ability to repeatedly shut down one of the world's most important shipping routes.
But that's where the real nightmare begins.
Even a limited operation could require tens of thousands of troops, cost hundreds of billions of dollars over time, and expose American forces to the kind of prolonged asymmetric warfare the U.S. has spent years trying to avoid.
The White House would be forced onto an almost impossible tightrope.
Push too little, and Iran keeps disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, making the entire operation look ineffective.
Push too hard, and every casualty, every billion dollars spent, and every month the war drags on becomes ammunition for Trump's political opponents.
Iran would have every incentive to make that balancing act even harder.
It would prolong the conflict using information campaigns, cyber operations, and influence networks abroad to amplify anti-war sentiment, deepen political divisions, and increase pressure on Washington to pull back before its objectives are achieved.
That is what makes this scenario so dangerous.
The greatest challenge is winning a political war at home long enough to achieve the military objective without the strategy collapsing under its own domestic pressure.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Os EUA atingiram CENTENAS de alvos no Irã nas últimas 5 noites, restabeleceram seu bloqueio naval e o MOU está morto ou morrendo rápido...
O Hormuz pré-guerra registrava mais de 100 transits de navios por dia, e a única forma de realmente garantir o estreito, se é isso o que os EUA exigem, pode ser com forças terrestres.
Dezenas de milhares de tropas, um compromisso de frota sem data para acabar, e o Irã só precisa ter sorte uma vez, enquanto os EUA precisam parar cada drone, todas as vezes.
O problema mais profundo é o que o bombardeio realmente produziu dentro do Irã:
Uma onda de nacionalismo que está transformando antigos críticos do regime em voluntários militares, com multidões no funeral de Khamenei entoando "morte aos traidores" para os oficiais que estavam dispostos a negociar.
A premissa de toda a campanha era que a dor econômica e os bombardeios forçariam Teerã a fazer concessões.
🇾🇪🇮🇷🇺🇸 O Irã teria instado o movimento houthis, do Iêmen, a encerrar a atividade no Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb, uma via crucial para o Mar Vermelho, caso os EUA ataquem a infraestrutura de energia do Irã.
🇮🇷 Iran just fired a warning at the one strategy the Gulf was counting on to escape it, and the geography of the strike is the whole message
The two UAE shuttle tankers reportedly hit were struck in the southern lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, within Omani territorial waters.
These are the exact vessels the Emirates use to move oil around the chokepoint while sailing "dark" to avoid detection.
That target choice is deliberate.Iran is saying the bypass operation isn't safe either.
It reframes pipeline optimism entirely.
The Gulf's whole plan, the West-East line, the Fujairah terminals, the new Arabian Sea port, rests on the assumption that oil leaving overland or through these shuttle operations escapes Iranian reach.
A cruise missile just tested that assumption and it failed.
The reported Iranian strike on U.S. maritime detection radars in Oman compounds it, blinding the surveillance that feeds the region's maritime safety.
And the Houthi drones targeting Abha airport in Saudi Arabia hint at the next expansion: if Iran and its allies can threaten the Hormuz shuttle operations, the surveillance grid, and eventually Bab el-Mandeb, there is no clean way out.
🇮🇷🇶🇦 Um jato do governo iraniano está a caminho de Teerã para o Qatar, mostram os rastreadores de voos, provavelmente transportando uma delegação oficial a caminho de Doha.
O Qatar tem sido o intermediário para conversas indiretas entre os EUA e o Irã sobre o seu recente Memorando de Entendimento, com Teerã insistindo que isso não envolve encontros diretos com autoridades americanas.
Se for mais uma rodada, espere os pontos de sempre: ativos congelados, o Estreito de Ormuz e o Líbano.
Fonte: Flightradar24
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