Bitcoin is under pressure again. The tentative stabilization has not held, leaving a downside bias for today. Temporary rebounds remain possible. 👀
💰 Bitcoin price: around $76,544
📍 These are the key levels: 🟢 Above $77,900: A sustained breakout and successful retest would improve the recovery outlook. Reclaiming $79,000 would require a reassessment of the bearish daily view. 🔴 Below $75,800: Persistent selling could bring $74,700 and $73,900 into focus.
↔️ Possible trading range today: $75,000–$78,200. Moves outside this range remain possible.
🔮 Outlook for the next 2–6 weeks: ➡️ Base scenario: Fragile base-building between $74,000 and $79,500, provided selling pressure eases and exchange-related risks do not escalate. 📈 Bullish scenario: Sustained recoveries above $79,000 and $80,000, supported by spot demand and ETF inflows, could open the way toward $80,000–$85,000. 📉 Bearish scenario: A daily close below $75,800 with continued selling could put $70,000–$74,000 in focus. Reclaiming $79,000 would challenge that outlook.
📅 Key events in the coming weeks • 03.11.: US midterms – political uncertainty could amplify volatility. • 03.11.: US JOLTS – job openings may shift interest-rate expectations. • 06.11.: US employment report – jobs and wages could provide fresh catalysts. • 10.11.: US CPI – inflation surprises could move BTC. • 08.–09.12.: Fed meeting – the rate decision and projections may influence risk appetite.
⏸️ Futures: The primary recommendation remains “No trade — wait and see.”
One unconfirmed short idea would be a rebound toward 77,700–77,900, followed by a clear rejection and failed retest. This is a watch scenario only, not a currently actionable trade. Avoid blindly chasing the decline.
⚠️ These are conditional scenarios, not guaranteed price targets. Confidence is low.
O Bitcoin apresenta sinais incipientes de estabilização. Hoje, o cenário preferido continua sendo uma sessão lateral, com um viés moderado de recuperação. Uma verdadeira reversão de tendência ainda não foi confirmada. 👀
💰 Preço no relatório da manhã: cerca de $78,131
📍 Estes são os níveis-chave: 🟢 Acima de $79,600: Uma ruptura confirmada, seguida de um reteste bem-sucedido e de um volume favorável no mercado à vista, reforçaria a recuperação. 🔴 Abaixo de $77,000: O risco de queda aumenta, trazendo novamente a faixa de $75,800–$76,300 para o foco.
↔️ Possível faixa de negociação hoje: $77,000–$79,600. Ainda são possíveis movimentos fora dessa faixa.
🔮 Perspectivas para as próximas 2–6 semanas: ➡️ Cenário-base: O Bitcoin tenta formar uma base entre $75,000 e $82,000, desde que as condições nas corretoras se estabilizem e as saídas diminuam. 📈 Cenário de alta: Movimentos sustentados de volta acima de $82,000 e, depois, de $85,000, apoiados pela demanda no mercado à vista e por entradas em ETFs, poderiam abrir caminho para $84,000–$90,000. Uma queda abaixo de $80,000 enfraqueceria esse cenário. 📉 Cenário de baixa: Um fechamento diário abaixo de $75,800, com pressão vendedora persistente, poderia trazer $70,000–$74,000 para o foco. Uma recuperação acima de $79,600 colocaria essa perspectiva em questão.
📅 Eventos importantes nas próximas semanas • 03.11.: JOLTS dos EUA — as vagas de emprego podem influenciar as expectativas sobre as taxas de juros. • 06.11.: Relatório de emprego dos EUA — os dados de emprego e salários podem trazer um novo catalisador. • 10.11.: IPC dos EUA — surpresas na inflação podem provocar movimentos significativos no BTC. • 13.11.: IPP dos EUA — atualização sobre as pressões de preços na cadeia produtiva. • 08.–09.12.: Reunião do Fed — a decisão sobre as taxas e as projeções podem alterar o apetite por risco.
⏸️ Futuros: aguardar para ver — nenhuma operação! Não há uma configuração de entrada confirmada; portanto, não são propostas entradas, níveis de stop-loss ou metas de lucro específicos. Reavalie após uma ruptura confirmada acima de $79,600, um reteste bem-sucedido e confirmação no mercado à vista.
⚠️ Estes são cenários condicionais, não metas de preço garantidas. O nível de confiança é baixo.
🚨 $14.6 billion from the Fed – is the Bitcoin pump coming now?
The number is right. But the message is sometimes clearly exaggerated. Simply explained here 👇
💵 What is actually happening?
The New York Fed is planning around $14.6 billion in reinvestment purchases of US government bonds. The official monthly period runs from 15. October to 13. November 2026.
Money from repayments of existing investments is reinvested. Additional purchases to build up bank reserves are not planned for this period.
🔄 A simple example:
You get 1,000 dollars back from an expiring investment and invest it again. You continued to invest 1,000 dollars with it - your assets did not increase by another 1,000 dollars.
That is precisely why reinvestments are not automatically a big new money injection or a new QE program.
📉 What is often missing in the hype:
In the previous month period, even $15.6 billion in reinvestments were planned. Now it's a billion less.
The other signals are also mixed:
▪️ US producer prices rose sharply in September.
▪️ A weaker dollar and waning interest rate hike expectations could support crypto.
▪️ From US Bitcoin ETFs flowed from the 12th to the 16th October bottom line around 228 million dollars.
🔍 What does this mean for Bitcoin?
These Fed purchases alone are not a reliable buy signal. For example, sustained ETF inflows, decreasing inflationary pressure and more favorable interest rate expectations would be helpful for a sustainable recovery.
An important date: the Fed meeting on 27-28. October. The decision and the outlook could move more than these routine reinvestments.
My assessment: A rally is possible. But the statement "14.6 billion are coming, that's why Bitcoin is rising" is too simple. I would not derive a long entry from this alone.
Status: 17.10.2026
Sources: New York Fed, BLS, Farside Investors, Reuters.