Dmex01

$BTC is currently trading around 78,360 USDT, showing clear signs of weakness on the daily chart. The overall market structure remains bearish, as BTC continues to form lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are still in control. At the moment, patience and confirmation are more important than rushing into trades. Trend & Moving Averages BTC is trading below all major moving averages, which confirms a strong downtrend:
MA(7): ~84,700MA(25): ~89,800MA(99): ~92,900The price being below MA(7), MA(25), and MA(99) shows that short-term, mid-term, and long-term momentum are all bearish. Additionally, MA(7) has crossed downward, which often signals continued selling pressure unless the price reclaims this level quickly.Key Support LevelsSupport zones are critical for identifying potential buying opportunities:75,700 – 76,000 USDT. This is a strong demand zone where price has already reacted. Buyers may attempt to defend this level.72,000 – 73,000 USDTIf the first support breaks, this zone becomes the next potential accumulation area.68,000 – 70,000 USDTA major weekly support zone.
If BTC reaches this area, long-term buyers are likely to show interest. Resistance Levels will face strong resistance at the following levels:80,000 – 81,000 USDT84,500 – 85,000 USDT (near MA(7))90,000+ USDT (trend reversal zone)A daily close above these resistance levels is required to shift market sentiment from bearish to bullish.Volume AnalysisRecent candles show high red volume, which indicates panic selling. However, the latest candles show decreasing volume, suggesting that selling pressure may be slowing down. This often happens near support zones and can lead to a short-term bounce, but volume confirmation is still needed.Buy StrategiesStrategy
1: Support-Based Buy (Aggressive)Buy only if BTC holds above 75,700 and shows rejection from this zone. Entry: 76,000 – 77,000Stop Loss: Below 74,800Targets: 82,000 – 84,000, then 88,000Strategy 2: Confirmation Buy (Safer)Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
Conditions:Daily candle closes above 80,500Price reclaims MA(7)Entry: 80,500 – 81,000Targets: 85,000 → 89,000Risk Management & DCA PlanFor spot traders, a DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy reduces risk:30% at 76k30% at 73k40% at 70k (only if price drops)Avoid using high leverage and never invest full capital in one entry.
Final Verdict BTC remains in a downtrend, but it is approaching a strong support zone. This is not a confirmed buy yet. The safest approach is to either buy near support with confirmation or wait for a breakout above 80.5k. In current conditions, patience and risk management are key to long-term success.
$BTC

($BTC)
Bitcoin the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, failed to hold its early January recovery momentum as sellers took control toward the month’s close. After printing a monthly high near $97,000, BTC reversed sharply and ended January 31, 2026, with a deep wick toward $75,722, marking a 6.20% decline in the last 24 hours and roughly a 10% drop year-to-date, while also setting a fresh yearly low.The sudden downside move rattled market sentiment and triggered heavy forced selling across the crypto market. In the last 24 hours alone, total crypto liquidations surged to nearly $2.58 billion, highlighting how overcrowded bullish positioning had become.Source: CoinmarketcapBitcoin Spot ETF slumps in JanuaryAccording to the latest data from SoSoValue, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $1.61 billion in January 2026, marking one of the weakest monthly performances since approval.Despite the outflows, cumulative net inflows still stand strong near $55.01 billion, with total net assets around $106.96 billion.
However, the January data clearly shows that institutional demand cooled significantly during the month, adding pressure to BTC’s price action and accelerating the correction.Source: SosovalueHistorically, sharp ETF outflow months often coincide with local fear phases, rather than long-term trend reversals — especially when broader market structure remains intact.Key bullish fractal to watch outLooking at the latest fractal comparison chart shared by crypto analyst Benjamin, Bitcoin’s current structure appears to mirror previous consolidation phases seen in major risk assets like Google (GOOG) and NVIDIA (NVDA) before their continuation rallies.On the weekly timeframe, BTC is still respecting its broader uptrend while pulling back toward a critical horizontal demand zone near $74,494. In past cycles, similar corrective moves — following strong impulsive rallies — have acted as reset phases, allowing the market to absorb supply before pushing higher.Bitcoin (BTC) Fractal Chart/Credits: @intocryptoverse (X)This fractal suggests that the ongoing pullback could be a healthy consolidation, rather than the start of a prolonged bearish trend, as long as BTC continues to defend this key support region.
What February could hold for BitcoinIf Bitcoin manages to hold above the $74,494 support, buyers may gradually step back in as selling pressure exhausts. A stabilization above this level could open the door for a renewed upside attempt toward the $85,000–$90,000 region in February.However, a decisive breakdown below $74,494 would weaken the bullish fractal narrative and could expose $BTC to deeper downside, potentially extending the correction.For now, Bitcoin enters February at a crucial inflection point — shaken by ETF outflows and mass liquidations, yet still holding a structure that bulls will be watching very closely.

O colapso do mercado de criptomoedas acelerou durante o fim de semana, com o Bitcoin caindo abaixo do nível de suporte chave de $80.000 pela primeira vez em meses. Ele estava sendo negociado a $78.678 no domingo, uma queda acentuada em relação ao seu recorde histórico de $126.300. O preço do Ethereum caiu para $2.400, enquanto o Binance Coin (BNB) caiu para $770. A capitalização de mercado de todos os tokens caiu mais de 5,80% nas últimas 24 horas para $2,67 trilhões.
Este artigo explora algumas das principais razões por trás do colapso contínuo das criptomoedas. O colapso do mercado de criptomoedas aconteceu depois que Trump nomeou Kevin Warsh. Uma das principais razões por trás do colapso contínuo do mercado de criptomoedas é que Donald Trump nomeou Kevin Warsh para se tornar o próximo presidente do Federal Reserve quando o mandato de Jerome Powell terminar em maio. Warsh recentemente apoiou a indústria de criptomoedas. No entanto, seu apoio provavelmente se deu porque ele realmente queria o cargo de presidente do Federal Reserve, pois já havia criticado a indústria anteriormente. O mesmo se aplica às suas opiniões sobre as taxas de juros. Em suas entrevistas recentes, ele se manifestou a favor de taxas de juros mais baixas. Na realidade, no entanto, Warsh sempre foi um defensor das taxas de juros e da inflação. Ele votou contra cortes nas taxas de juros e políticas de afrouxamento quantitativo em 2011. O mais importante é que ele sempre manteve sua oposição ao afrouxamento quantitativo. Portanto, os analistas acreditam que Warsh manterá uma visão restritiva quando se mudar para o Federal Reserve, assim como Jerome Powell fez. Aumento das liquidações alimentou o colapso das criptomoedas. A outra razão principal para o colapso do mercado de criptomoedas são as liquidações crescentes e o interesse aberto em futuros em queda. Dados compilados pela CoinGlass mostram que o interesse aberto em futuros caiu 10% nas últimas 24 horas para $113 bilhões. Ao mesmo tempo, as liquidações saltaram 348% nas últimas 24 horas para mais de $2,5 bilhões, o maior aumento em meses. As liquidações do Ethereum saltaram para mais de $1,1 bilhão, enquanto o Bitcoin subiu para mais de $785 milhões. As posições da Solana valiam mais de $197 milhões, enquanto as posições da XRP valiam $61 milhões foram liquidadas. Essas liquidações trouxeram à memória o dia 10 de outubro, quando o mercado de criptomoedas experimentou a maior liquidação já registrada. Posições no valor de mais de $20 bilhões foram eliminadas em 10 de outubro, quando Donald Trump ameaçou impor tarifas sobre a China.

O iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) da BlackRock é um ETF de bitcoin à vista que oferece aos investidores exposição ao preço do bitcoin sem possuir BTC diretamente. O fundo mantém bitcoin em armazenamento a frio através da Coinbase Prime e está listado para negociação na bolsa NASDAQ. O IBIT oferece liquidez, supervisão regulatória e simplicidade para os investidores, embora seu desempenho possa ser influenciado pelas flutuações de preço do bitcoin e pelos custos de gestão contínuos. O que é um ETF de Bitcoin à Vista? Um fundo negociado em bolsa (ETF) é um veículo de investimento que agrupa fundos de investidores para comprar e manter um portfólio de ativos, como ações, títulos, commodities ou ativos digitais. Os ETFs são negociados em bolsas de valores públicas durante todo o dia, oferecendo liquidez, transparência e acessibilidade. Eles permitem que os investidores obtenham exposição a diferentes mercados sem precisar gerenciar os ativos subjacentes diretamente. Um ETF de bitcoin à vista aplica esse mesmo conceito ao bitcoin. Em vez de manter ativos tradicionais, ele acompanha o preço do bitcoin e permite que os investidores participem de seu mercado através de plataformas financeiras regulamentadas. Existem dois tipos principais de ETFs de bitcoin: ETFs à Vista: Mantêm bitcoin real em custódia para refletir seu preço de mercado. ETFs de Futuros: Acompanham o preço de contratos futuros de bitcoin negociados em bolsas regulamentadas, em vez de manter bitcoin diretamente. Cada ação de um ETF de bitcoin à vista representa uma parte do bitcoin mantido pelo fundo, que é armazenado por um custodiante regulamentado. O preço das ações se move em linha com o valor de mercado do bitcoin, oferecendo aos investidores uma maneira familiar e regulamentada de obter exposição ao bitcoin. Os ETFs de bitcoin à vista receberam aprovação regulatória nos Estados Unidos em janeiro de 2024, marcando um marco importante para a integração de ativos digitais nas finanças tradicionais. Sua exposição direta ao preço do bitcoin, combinada com a supervisão regulatória, atraiu um interesse crescente tanto de investidores de varejo quanto institucionais que buscam uma maneira simples e em conformidade de investir em bitcoin. Quem é a BlackRock? A BlackRock é uma empresa global de gestão de ativos com sede em Nova York. Fundada em 1988, a empresa oferece uma ampla gama de produtos de investimento e serviços financeiros, incluindo ETFs, fundos mútuos e soluções de gestão de portfólio. A empresa trabalha com clientes institucionais e individuais em diferentes mercados e é considerada um dos principais participantes da indústria global de investimentos. O iShares Bitcoin Trust da BlackRock O iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) é um ETF de bitcoin à vista lançado pela BlackRock, uma das principais empresas de gestão de ativos do mundo. Aprovado pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários dos EUA (SEC) em 11 de janeiro de 2024, o IBIT começou a ser negociado logo depois na NASDAQ, uma importante bolsa de valores dos EUA. Isso permitiu que os investidores obtivessem exposição aos movimentos de preço do bitcoin comprando e vendendo ações através de contas de corretagem padrão. A BlackRock havia apresentado originalmente sua solicitação à SEC em 15 de junho de 2023 e recebeu aprovação sete meses depois. A decisão da SEC marcou um marco importante tanto para o setor de criptomoedas quanto para as finanças tradicionais, aprovando 11 ETFs de bitcoin à vista no mesmo dia. Desde seu lançamento, o IBIT viu um crescimento rápido e uma forte demanda dos investidores. O fundo superou $1 bilhão em ativos dentro de sua primeira semana de negociação e desde então se tornou o maior ETF de bitcoin globalmente. Em outubro de 2025, o IBIT possui mais de 800.000 BTC, representando aproximadamente 3,8% do suprimento total de bitcoin. Como o IBIT Funciona Estrutura e gestão O IBIT utiliza um sistema de criação e resgate para manter seu preço de ação intimamente alinhado com o preço real do bitcoin. Quando mais investidores compram ações do IBIT, novas ações são emitidas e os recursos são utilizados para comprar bitcoin adicional. Quando os investidores vendem, o fundo pode vender parte de suas participações em bitcoin para fornecer liquidez. Esse processo ajuda a garantir que o preço de mercado do ETF reflita com precisão o valor de seu bitcoin subjacente. O fundo cobra uma taxa de gestão de 0,25% por ano, que cobre custos operacionais e administrativos. Custódia e segurança A BlackRock faz parceria com a Coinbase Custody Trust Company, também conhecida como Coinbase Prime, para armazenar o bitcoin do fundo. Os ativos são mantidos em armazenamento a frio, o que significa que estão totalmente offline para minimizar o risco de hacking ou acesso não autorizado. O bitcoin do IBIT é armazenado em carteiras segregadas, separadas das próprias participações da Coinbase, garantindo propriedade clara e transparência. Cada carteira é protegida com autorização de múltiplas assinaturas, exigindo várias aprovações para qualquer transferência. Auditorias regulares de segurança cibernética também são realizadas para ajudar a manter a integridade e a segurança dos ativos do fundo. Os investidores que possuem ações do IBIT não precisam gerenciar chaves privadas de bitcoin ou armazenamento diretamente, uma vez que o custodiante do ETF supervisiona todos os processos de segurança e recuperação. Precificação de referência Para acompanhar o preço do bitcoin com precisão, o IBIT utiliza a Taxa de Referência de Bitcoin CME CF (BRR). Este benchmark calcula uma média diária dos preços do bitcoin de várias principais exchanges de criptomoedas. Ele ajuda a prevenir oscilações temporárias de preço ou irregularidades em uma única exchange de afetarem o valor geral do ETF. Principais Recursos Acessibilidade: O IBIT oferece aos investidores exposição ao bitcoin através de contas de corretagem tradicionais, removendo a necessidade de carteiras ou custódia direta de criptomoedas. Liquidez: Como um dos ETFs de bitcoin mais negociados, o IBIT oferece profunda liquidez e execução de preços eficiente. Infraestrutura regulamentada: Gerido pela BlackRock sob supervisão da SEC, o IBIT opera dentro de um quadro transparente e em conformidade, com a Coinbase como seu custodiante regulamentado. Custódia e segurança: Todo bitcoin que apóia o IBIT é armazenado offline no armazenamento a frio da Coinbase Custody. Os ativos são protegidos através de carteiras segregadas, autorização de múltiplas assinaturas e auditorias de segurança regulares. Riscos e Considerações Embora o IBIT forneça uma maneira alternativa e regulamentada de obter exposição ao bitcoin, é importante entender os riscos inerentes: Volatilidade do mercado: O bitcoin continua altamente volátil, portanto os investidores do ETF estão expostos a seus movimentos de preço. Mudanças regulatórias: Atualizações futuras nas leis de criptomoeda ou regulamentos financeiros podem afetar como os ETFs de bitcoin operam ou são tributados. Risco de custódia e contraparte: O bitcoin mantido pelo IBIT é armazenado pela Coinbase Custody. Embora seja regulamentado e tenha fortes medidas de segurança, nenhum sistema está completamente livre de risco. Implicações fiscais: Os lucros da venda de ações do IBIT podem estar sujeitos a imposto sobre ganhos de capital, semelhante à propriedade direta de bitcoin. O tratamento fiscal exato dependeria das regulamentações de cada país e pode variar de acordo com a jurisdição.

Bitcoin has experienced a major capitulation move, crashing aggressively from the 84k region down to the 75,500 support, where heavy volume and long downside wicks appeared. This type of move signals panic selling and seller exhaustion, not a healthy continuation dump. Since touching that low, $BTC has stabilized and is now trading back above 78k, showing that buyers are stepping in and defending the lower zone. At the moment, Bitcoin is not in a confirmed bullish trend, but it is also no longer in free fall. The market is transitioning into a post-crash recovery and consolidation phase. Price is currently holding inside the 77,500–79,500 range, which is acting as a balance area. As long as BTC stays above 77,000, the probability favors continued sideways-to-up recovery rather than another immediate collapse.On the upside, if BTC can hold this base and push higher, the next resistance zones sit at 80,500–81,200, followed by a major supply zone at 83,000–84,000. These levels are expected to attract strong selling pressure again, so upside moves should be traded cautiously with partial profit-taking. This is still a recovery move, not a trend reversal.On the downside, losing 77,000 would weaken the structure and expose 75,500 again. A clean break below that level would invalidate the recovery and open deeper downside toward the low-70k region.What to do now:Longs should only be considered above support with tight risk and modest targets. Shorts should not be added near current support and are better planned near resistance. If you are flat, patience is key — the best trades will come after confirmation, not inside this decision zone. Right now, Bitcoin is in a high-volatility transition phase, where risk management matters more than direction.#BitcoinETFWatch #MarketCorrection Trade #BTC Here 👇👇👇
BTCUSDTPerp78,673.8-6.44%

How Whales Look at the Monthly Close @ Monthly Close Theories1. A close above 89.400 is positive, indicating a potential rise to 103.700. This positivity is confirmed by a hold above 91.700, followed by a rise to 95.750.Second Theory2. A close and hold at 86.400 suggests sideways movement. This anticipates a potential drop to 74 and 69. The movement would then be sideways within a range of 88.400 to 83.370. The holdout level must remain stable at 86.400. This would lead to a decrease in Bitcoin's holdings to the 58.55 area. It would also give altcoins a three-week rally until Bitcoin consolidates. Third Theory @3. This is the most dangerous and comprehensive scenario: a clear monthly close below 86.400 would signal a decline in holdings. To 57.30The swing is confirmed to levels of 69, 66, and 62, from which it rebounds, coinciding with Ethereum's drop to 2.270.This timeframe theory is limited to ten days. Its purpose is to eliminate short-term traders and provide consolidation zones for Bitcoin and Ethereum whales. If I were the market maker, I would use theory number 3.

$BTC

slid sharply on Monday, briefly dipping to the $86,000 zone as selling pressure accelerated across the market. The move extends a difficult week for the largest cryptocurrency, which is now down close to 10% over the past seven days, according to market data.Despite heavy buying activity on derivatives exchanges, price action failed to stabilize, highlighting growing tension between aggressive traders and broader market sentiment.
Key TakeawaysBitcoin fell to the $86,000 area as weekly losses deepened and volatility picked up.Heavy long liquidations and extreme buy-side imbalance point to overcrowded bullish positioning.Technical indicators suggest weakening momentum, with recovery dependent on reclaiming levels above $90,000.The pullback came with a clear spike in volatility. Bitcoin was trading around $86,400 at the time of writing, down more than 3% on the day, while daily volumes surged as traders rushed to reposition. Market capitalization also fell below recent highs, reinforcing the sense that momentum has turned fragile in the short term.
Leverage builds up as price moves lowerOne of the most striking developments during the drop was the scale of liquidations. Data shows more than $156 million in Bitcoin positions were wiped out in a short period, with long positions accounting for the overwhelming majority. Over $154 million in longs were liquidated, compared with just a few million in shorts, suggesting that many traders were caught leaning too aggressively to the upside.At the same time, derivatives data revealed a sharp imbalance in order flow. Bitcoin’s taker buy-sell ratio on BitMEX briefly surged to extremely elevated levels, signaling intense market buying from traders attempting to catch a rebound.Historically, such extreme readings often reflect late long positioning rather than the start of a sustainable rally. In this case, heavy buying failed to push price higher, increasing the risk of further downside as those positions come under pressure.
$BTC Charts show weakening momentumFrom a technical perspective, the picture has also deteriorated. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has been making lower highs and lower lows since failing near the $96,000-$98,000 area earlier this month. Momentum indicators are reinforcing the bearish tone. The MACD remains deep in negative territory, while the RSI recently dipped toward oversold levels before attempting a modest bounce.While oversold conditions can sometimes lead to short-term relief rallies, the broader structure suggests caution. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim key resistance levels above $90,000, downside tests toward lower support zones cannot be ruled out. For now, price action indicates that buyers are struggling to regain control despite clear attempts to step in.As the market digests the latest move, traders will be watching closely to see whether this drop marks a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper correction.
$BTC #SouthKoreaSeizedBTCLoss #USIranMarketImpact BTC86,584.2-3.07%

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31 has surged to approximately 78%, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. According to NS3.AI, this development has caused a significant drop in crypto market sentiment, which has fallen to 'Extreme Fear' on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
Concerns over delayed economic data and increased market volatility are contributing to this sentiment.Historically, precious metals have shown strong rallies during government shutdowns, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin tend to experience increased volatility and downside risk. Investors are closely monitoring these trends as the situation unfolds.

Guys, $BTC rejected sharply from the $98K zone and is now trading near $90K after bouncing from $87K. This move has left the market divided — was this just a healthy reset, or is another drop coming first? Let’s break it down in a clean, simple way.
Market Structure & price Action The rejection at $98K wasn’t random. That level acted as a classic bull trap, catching late longs who expected an instant push to $100K. Once price lost $90K, that former support flipped into resistance. As long as BTC stays below this zone on higher timeframes, bears control the short-term trend. A strong 4H close back above $90K is required to shift momentum.Why Did Bitcoin Dump? This sell-off wasn’t driven by technicals alone. Rising geopolitical tension and new tariff headlines triggered uncertainty across risk markets. Algorithms reacted instantly, followed by emotional selling from retail traders. Despite the negative news, the bounce from $87K shows the market views this as short-term political noise, not a fundamental breakdown.
On-Chain Reality CheckThis move flushed excess leverage. Over $600M in long positions were wiped out in a single day, resetting open interest and removing weak hands. While leveraged traders were forced out, spot buyers stepped in aggressively around $87K. Smart money used fear as an entry opportunity.
What Comes Next?There are two clear paths forward:
Bullish ScenarioA confirmed reclaim and 4H close above $90K would signal strength. If support flips back in favor of buyers, price could move quickly toward $94K due to low resistance above.
Bearish ScenarioRepeated rejection at $90K would likely send $BTC back to retest the $87K demand zone. That area remains critical for maintaining the broader structure.
Final ThoughtLeverage has been cleaned out. Fear-driven news is already priced in. Now the market waits for confirmation. Don’t chase — let price show direction. Patience here will outperform prediction.
$BTC

Bitcoin is experiencing unprecedented selling activity from long-term holders, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. According to Cointelegraph, the trend of selling by these holders began well below current price levels, distinguishing this bull market from previous ones. Over the past two years, Bitcoin long-term holders have set records with their sales, indicating a price cycle and investor transition underway.Research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlights the ongoing sales of significantly older coins during this bull market. Unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) involving Bitcoin that had been dormant for two years or more have surged since 2024.
Contributor Kripto Mevsimi noted that 2024 and 2025 have recorded the highest annual revived supply from long-term holders in Bitcoin's history. This data rivals the distribution seen at the end of the 2017 bull market when Bitcoin reached $20,000. Unlike previous cycles, the current revival is occurring with lower market noise but involves significantly older coins.CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin's long-term holders are reassessing their market exposure, a trend that began when prices surpassed $40,000. Early 2026 data does not yet indicate a full reversal of this trend, but revived long-term supply has moderated compared to the peaks of 2024–2025. Kripto Mevsimi speculates whether this represents temporary exhaustion or the start of a new accumulation phase, which will become clearer as the year progresses.As Cointelegraph reported, the activity of long-term holders bringing dormant coins to market has become a major discussion point recently. Bitcoin's underperformance compared to other major asset classes from Q4 2025 onward has raised questions about how the coming year might differ from previous price cycles. With 2026 anticipated to be a bear market year, forecasts suggest a return to much lower levels than the current $90,000. The validity of the four-year price cycle is also debated among market participants.
Bitcoin is not only undergoing a price cycle but potentially a transition in who holds it and why. Long-term holder supply behavior is one of the clearest on-chain signals of this shift, according to CryptoQuant. This evolving dynamic in the Bitcoin market underscores the changing landscape and the potential for new patterns in investor behavior.
$BTC

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why Compass Point’s Crucial $98K Warning Demands Investor CautionIn a significant move for cryptocurrency investors, the U.S. investment bank Compass Point has issued a clear warning regarding Bitcoin’s recent volatility. The firm now advises extreme caution against buying the dips until the premier digital asset can decisively reclaim the $98,000 price level. This guidance, reported by Decrypt on October 26, 2025, stems from a detailed analysis of on-chain data and short-term holder behavior, marking a pivotal moment for market sentiment.Bitcoin Price Analysis: The $98,000 Psychological ThresholdCompass Point’s analysis identifies the $98,000 mark not as a random number, but as the calculated average purchase price for Bitcoin’s short-term holders. These investors, typically holding assets for less than 155 days, exhibit heightened sensitivity to price movements. Consequently, their collective cost basis creates a formidable zone of resistance and psychological pressure. When the price trades below this average, short-term holders are statistically more likely to sell during downturns to avoid losses, thereby amplifying selling pressure. The bank’s research indicates that until Bitcoin sustains a break above this level, the risk of further declines remains elevated, making aggressive dip-buying a perilous strategy.This framework provides crucial context for Bitcoin’s recent price action. In late October 2025, BTC staged a rally that pushed it to approximately $97,500, tantalizingly close to the key threshold. However, the asset failed to achieve a weekly close above $98,000, triggering a rejection that sent prices tumbling below $90,000. This event perfectly illustrates the technical and behavioral significance of the level Compass Point highlighted. Market analysts often refer to such levels as “on-chain resistance,” where previous investor entry points create a supply overhang.Understanding Short-Term Holder Psychology and Market ImpactThe focus on short-term holder (STH) cost basis represents a sophisticated shift in market analysis. Unlike long-term “HODLers,” short-term holders are often driven by momentum and sentiment. Their aggregate cost basis acts as a collective breakeven point. When the market price dips below it, a segment of these holders may panic-sell, converting paper losses into realized losses. This activity can create cascading sell-offs, especially in a market where leveraged positions are common. Compass Point’s warning directly addresses this dynamic, suggesting that stability above $98,000 would signal that the majority of recent buyers are in profit, potentially reducing urgent selling pressure and creating a healthier foundation for an advance.Historical Precedents and Current Market ParallelsThis pattern is not without historical precedent. Similar analysis of holder cost basis proved insightful during previous market cycles. For instance, during the 2021 bull run, the realized price for short-term holders often acted as support during healthy corrections and as resistance during bear market rallies. The current advice mirrors risk-management strategies employed by institutional analysts in traditional finance, where understanding the average entry point of the “weak hands” is key to gauging market stamina. The integration of such on-chain metrics into mainstream investment banking commentary, as seen with Compass Point, underscores the maturation of cryptocurrency market analysis.Furthermore, the bank’s note contextualizes potential future scenarios. While a deeper correction toward the $80,000 region could present a more attractive risk-reward entry point for some investors, Compass Point simultaneously warns of persistent risks. The primary concern revolves around leveraged purchasing. A market saturated with leverage is vulnerable to violent liquidations if prices move unexpectedly, which can exacerbate volatility and turn a routine correction into a steep plunge. Therefore, the bank implies that any buying activity, even at lower prices, should be approached with disciplined risk management and an awareness of overall market leverage.The Broader 2025 Cryptocurrency Landscape and Institutional InfluenceThe issuance of this guidance occurs within a specific 2025 financial landscape. Regulatory clarity in major economies like the U.S. and the E.U. has progressed, leading to deeper institutional participation. Firms like Compass Point now play a more influential role in shaping retail and institutional investor behavior through published research. Their analyses are closely watched for signals about how traditional finance interprets blockchain data. This particular report highlights the growing convergence between technical on-chain analysis and conventional fundamental risk assessment, setting a new standard for how investment banks evaluate digital asset opportunities.Other market factors contribute to the current environment. The integration of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the evolution of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, and macroeconomic conditions like interest rates all interact with price levels identified by on-chain metrics. Compass Point’s caution serves as a reminder that despite advanced financial products and adoption, core market mechanics—like investor cost basis and leverage—remain paramount. For traders, this means complementing price chart analysis with a firm understanding of blockchain-derived supply dynamics.ConclusionCompass Point’s advisory to avoid aggressive Bitcoin dip-buying below $98,000 provides a critical, data-driven framework for navigating current market uncertainty. By pinpointing the short-term holder cost basis as a key resistance level, the analysis moves beyond simple chart patterns to incorporate behavioral economics and on-chain reality. While potential buying opportunities may emerge at lower prices, the overarching message emphasizes caution, disciplined risk assessment, and respect for leverage-related dangers. This Bitcoin price analysis from a established investment bank underscores the maturation of crypto markets, where sophisticated, evidence-based reasoning is essential for informed investment decisions in 2025 and beyond.
FAQsQ1: What is the $98,000 level that Compass Point is referring to?The $98,000 level represents the average purchase price, or aggregate cost basis, for Bitcoin investors classified as short-term holders (those holding for roughly less than five months). It’s a key on-chain metric that indicates a major psychological and resistance level.
Q2: Why are short-term holders so important for Bitcoin’s price?Short-term holders are typically more reactive to price changes than long-term investors. When the price falls below their average cost basis, they are more likely to sell to cut losses, which can increase selling pressure and drive the price down further.
Q3: Does Compass Point say not to buy Bitcoin at all?No. The advice is specifically to exercise caution with “dip-buying”—aggressively purchasing during declines—until the $98,000 level is reclaimed. The bank suggests a deeper correction to around $80,000 could be a buying opportunity, but warns of risks from high leverage in the market.
Q4: What are the risks of leveraged purchasing mentioned in the analysis?Leveraged purchasing involves using borrowed funds to amplify trades. If the price moves against these highly leveraged positions, it can trigger automatic liquidations, creating a cascade of forced selling that dramatically worsens a price drop.

Q5: How does this type of analysis affect the average cryptocurrency investor?It highlights the importance of looking beyond simple price charts. Understanding on-chain metrics like holder cost basis can provide deeper insight into market sentiment and potential support/resistance levels, helping investors make more informed decisions about entry points and risk management.This post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why Compass Point’s Crucial $98K Warning Demands Investor Caution first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
$BTC

$BTC

While headlines scream volatility, institutions are doing the opposite
— quietly stacking BTC. Wallets holding 100–1,000 Bitcoin (excluding miners and exchanges) continue to grow, offering one of the cleanest reads on real institutional demand — ETFs included.
The numbers are staggering: 577,000 BTC added in just the past year, worth roughly $53 BILLION at current prices. And the flow hasn’t slowed.
This isn’t short-term trading capital. This is custody-grade Bitcoin being parked for the long haul. Institutions don’t accumulate like this for quick flips
— they position ahead of structural moves.
Retail panics.
Institutions absorb.
That divergence usually doesn’t last forever.
If this pace continues, the supply available to the open market keeps shrinking — and price eventually has to respond.
Are you watching price… or watching who’s buying?
Follow Wendy for more latest updates

#Bitcoin #Institutions #Crypto

Bitcoin is facing renewed downside pressure after failing to hold a key breakout, with technical signals now pointing to a potential move toward sub-$60,000 levels, according to multiple analysts.BTC slid to eight-day lows near $90,000 on Tuesday as markets digested rising geopolitical tension and weakening technical structure, putting bulls back on the defensive.
Key takeaways
Bitcoin has re-entered its multi-month trading range after a failed breakout attemptA new weekly death cross has formed, historically associated with macro bottomsAnalysts warn BTC could revisit $58,000–$62,000 if support fails
Bitcoin breakout fails as price slips below key levelsData from TradingView shows BTC retesting the $90,000 zone ahead of the week’s first full Wall Street session, after briefly attempting to break higher earlier this month. The pullback coincides with renewed global risk aversion as US-EU trade tensions re-emerge, tied to Washington’s proposed tariff actions involving Greenland. While gold and silver pushed to fresh all-time highs, risk assets — including crypto — came under pressure. Trader Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin has now clearly fallen back into its long-standing consolidation range.“Now fully back into the ~$84K–$94K range it has spent the past two months in,” he wrote on X.“Breakout failed — and it doesn’t make for a pretty look.”Technically, BTC lost both the 4-hour 200-period SMA and EMA, weakening short-term structure and shifting focus toward lower support zones.Yearly opens back in playAnalysts are now watching key yearly levels closely.2025 yearly open: ~$93,5002026 yearly open: ~$87,000Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin must reclaim $93,500 to preserve its weekly breakout structure.“Bitcoin will need to find a way to reclaim $93,500 throughout the week to confirm this as a successful retest,” he said. Failure to do so would place the 2026 yearly open near $87,000 in focus — a level some traders believe is likely to be tested.“It’s rare to see no wick below the yearly open,” Daan Crypto Trades added.“Better to get that out of the way sooner rather than later.”Liquidations spike as volatility returnsMarket stress was reflected in derivatives data.According to CoinGlass, more than $360 million in liquidations occurred over the past 24 hours, with forced selling accelerating as U.S. futures opened overnight.The spike followed renewed trade-war headlines, though some analysts say macro news merely acted as a trigger — not the root cause. Death cross flashes warning signalAccording to Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, Bitcoin’s latest decline was technically telegraphed well in advance.“This move had nothing to do with narratives,” Alan said.“We’ve seen it developing in the charts for over a month.”Alan highlighted a newly formed weekly death cross, where the 21-week moving average crosses below the 50-week average
— a signal that has historically preceded major cycle bottoms.He added that Bitcoin may attempt to bounce near the 100-week SMA, currently around $86,900.$58K–$62K zone back on the tableVeteran trader Peter Brandt offered the most bearish outlook, suggesting Bitcoin could revisit the $58,000–$62,000 range
— levels last seen in October 2024.“58k to 62k is where I think it is going,” Brandt wrote on X.“If it does not go there, I won’t be ashamed. I’m wrong 50% of the time.”While Brandt emphasized uncertainty, his call reflects growing caution among technical traders as BTC struggles to reclaim lost momentum.Market outlook: correction or reset?Despite the near-term pressure, several analysts note that:Leverage has already been flushedOpen interest remains well below October highsSpot demand has not collapsedThis leaves open the possibility that further downside
— if it occurs — could act as a structural reset rather than a trend reversal, particularly if long-term holders continue accumulating.For now, however, Bitcoin remains vulnerable unless bulls reclaim $93,500–$98,000, with downside liquidity increasingly clustered below
$BTC