For-Exx Kripto 1

Even when $LUNC was above 10,000, I consistently drew attention to the 8,200 level. Currently, it's experiencing a battle between buyers and sellers at that level. There hasn't been a daily close above 10,000 for three days, and the selling pressure has intensified. Now it's trying to hold at 8,200. If it closes below 8,200 on the daily chart, it could fall to 5,045. If it holds, it will go back to the 10,000 level. Today's and tomorrow's movements and the show of strength between buyers and sellers are important.

Interestingly, $BTC has always experienced significant drops in the past following changes in Federal Reserve chairmen. These declines are not being triggered solely by the change in the Fed chairman; other factors have also played a role each time (2014: prolonged bear market, 2018: ICO bubble burst + interest rate hike, 2022: FTX crash + aggressive interest rate hikes). However, it's a historical fact that Bitcoin experiences a serious correction of 60-86% with each new chairperson's transition. The average drop has been around 70-80%. This time, the inflation problem and the possibility of interest rate hikes have emerged. Is history merely repeating itself, or does it rhyme?

Although $LUNC appears weaker than in previous days, there's no problem as long as it holds above 8200. The 8200 level is the dividing line between positivity and negativity; above it is positive, below it is negative.

May 12, 2022. Four years since the day crypto history called "the collapse."

LUNA had climbed from 1$ to $119,top-eight by market cap. At Terra's core sat an algorithmic stablecoin,UST — not backed by dollars or treasuries,but balanced against its sister token,LUNA ( $LUNC ). The promise: 1 UST = 1$, kept there by arbitrage.

The one fragility was trust. Anchor Protocol paid 20% yield on UST and absorbed three quarters of supply. The yield wasn't earned but subsidized — marketing dressed as DeFi. Do Kwon mocked critics as"the poor."

On May 7, the color changed. UST sales flooded the Curve pool; billions flowed out of Anchor in hours. UST broke below 1$. Small at first, but the mechanism amplified panic: holders burned UST, LUNA was minted,supply hit the market, prices fell, backing eroded. The cycle had a name — the death spiral. By May 9,UST was at 35 cents. On May 10, the Luna Foundation Guard dumped its 80,000+ Bitcoin reserve to defend the peg; billions sold overnight,the peg held at 80 cents briefly,then broke again.

May 12 was the final act: the Terra blockchain halted twice in one day. LUNA's supply ballooned to trillions in hours;the price disappeared into decimals — down to $0.000017. $45 billion evaporated in a week.

The real damage wasn't on the charts. Stories of lost savings,pensions,tuition flooded social media. In South Korea,losses reached parliament; reporters at Do Kwon's Seoul home found a weeping woman at the gate. r/terraluna became a hotline.

Terra restarted on May 28; the old chain became Terra Classic,the old coin LUNC. A new LUNA was airdropped,but most losses never came back. Do Kwon vanished, surfaced in Montenegro with a fake Costa Rican passport,and was arrested.

Trillions of LUNC still sit in wallets. Some hold to forget, some wait for a miracle. But May 12 isn't just a date — it's the day crypto learned, in its bones, the limits of algorithmic trust and how much emptiness can hide beneath a promise of "high yield."

$XRP has touched the upper line of the horizontal range again and is currently at 1.4635, which makes one think it could be a very good short opportunity with a stop loss at 1.61.

Here's Binance's May 12th $LUNC surprise: CZ writing #Lunc on his profile!!!

Of course, the image isn't real, but I think nobody would say no if it were.

I told you days ago that nothing would happen on May 12th; the date May 12th is just another one of the usual lies from those deceitful, manipulative influencers trying to grab your attention. Don't believe their cheap tricks anymore; I think sensible people have learned this many times over the past four years, because they've done the same thing hundreds of times.

$LUNC managed to climb back above the 10000 level, and although it's facing downward pressure, buyers are somehow managing to push it above 10000, which is leading to positive sentiment. If it closes above 10000 today, it will have closed above this important resistance level for two consecutive days.

Ripple ( $XRP ) está em um ponto interessante: a nuvem legal se dissipou, o caso da SEC foi encerrado e os ETFs de spot XRP foram lançados em novembro de 2025 com mais de um bilhão de dólares em entradas. No entanto, o preço permanece bem abaixo dos altos de 2025, preso em uma faixa estreita. As instituições estão comprando enquanto o varejo está vendendo — e a pergunta é por que a demanda não está se traduzindo em preço. De onde vem a pressão? Os desbloqueios mensais de escrow da Ripple continuam adicionando oferta nova, e mesmo com o re-locking parcial, o saldo líquido não é trivial. Dados on-chain mostram que o uso da rede está em declínio há anos — novos endereços e usuários ativos estão esfriando. O RLUSD não conseguiu ganhar tração contra o USDT e USDC, enfraquecendo a tese de demanda pelo sistema de pagamentos. O cenário macro é hostil: a postura agressiva do Fed e a liquidez mais apertada comprimem toda a curva de risco. As entradas de ETFs também desaceleraram em relação ao ritmo de lançamento. O que uma alta precisa? A narrativa estrutural está intacta; ela espera por um gatilho. Catalisadores-chave: entradas sustentadas de ETFs, legislação de estrutura de mercado dos EUA, integração do RLUSD com sistemas bancários na Ásia, crescimento real no volume ODL da Ripple e saldos de exchanges permanecendo baixos. Adicione uma mudança macro — o Fed mudando para cortes claros, a liquidez do dólar se expandindo — e um rompimento se torna mais provável. A longo prazo, o ciclo de halving do $BTC pós-2028 e a licença bancária da Ripple nos EUA são as referências de próximo nível. Expectativas: o Standard Chartered reduziu sua meta agressiva; mesas como a Bitrue estão mais conservadoras; os ursos argumentam por uma queda no uso da rede em declínio. O caso base para 2026–2027 é um passo gradual para cima a partir da faixa atual, mas um movimento parabólico requer que toda a cadeia de catalisadores se alinhe. Resumindo: a narrativa do XRP evoluiu de "token legalmente problemático" para "ativo de infraestrutura institucional." Para que os mercados precifiquem isso, duas coisas são necessárias: evidência concreta de crescimento do uso no mundo real e um cenário macro que suporte o apetite por risco. Com ambos, uma alta não seria surpresa. Sem nenhum dos dois, o preço permanece onde a compra institucional apenas compensa a venda do varejo.

US CPI Preview — May 12, 12:30 (UTC +0) Consensus: Headline +0.6–0.7% m/m, 3.7–3.8% y/y (March: 0.9%/3.3%). Core +0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y. One-off shelter/OER adjustment from the fall shutdown adds noise. Post-ceasefire Brent drop (118→92) mostly shows up in May data, not April. BofA sees no Fed cuts in 2026; market already hawkish. Hot print (headline 3.8%+ or core 2.8%+) Backdrop: DXY sharply up, 10Y yields up, equities down, small caps hit hardest. Gold: classic reflex is down on stronger dollar and higher real rates, but inflation-hedge demand provides a floor — early drop, late-session recovery is the common pattern. Bitcoin: down. Risk-off plus tighter-liquidity narrative is a bad mix for crypto; altcoins sold harder. Core at 2.9%+ sets up a 5–8% $BTC selloff window. In-line print (3.7% / 2.7%) Base case. Composition matters more than the headline — super-core, organic shelter trend, tariff pass-through into goods are the focus. Gold: rangebound, but the 2026 uptrend keeps dip buyers active. Bitcoin: muted reaction; crypto-specific catalysts (ETF flows, regulation) take over. Cool print (headline below 3.5% or core 2.5%) Backdrop: DXY down, yields drop sharply, strong equity rally led by growth and small caps. Goldilocks narrative back. Gold: best setup of the three — falling real rates + weak dollar + Fed easing hopes is the perfect trio. Bitcoin: one of the year's strongest reactions possible. BTC's macro-liquidity sensitivity is sharp in 2026; core at 2.5% or below is enough for 4–7% upside near-term. Altcoins outperform via beta. Watch list: super-core (Fed's favorite), shelter (one-off adjustment), core goods (tariff trace), airfares (secondary energy effect). Positioning: asymmetry tilts toward a cool surprise. Consensus is already very hawkish, so a soft print sparks a larger relief rally. Best mix for BTC and gold: cool data + ceasefire holding.

I have repeatedly written that I have been bearish on $FLOKI since the beginning of January, starting from the 5535 level, with the main target being 1603. Since then, it has fallen by 53% and found support at its lowest level of 2613. However, the chart shows that positive signals have started to appear in FLOKI. If it breaks above 4031, it could rise to the 6100 levels where it started to decline. Let's see if it reaches 4031 first, no rush...

$XRP has been stuck in the range I previously marked with a turquoise dashed line, between 1.28 and 1.52, for the past four months. These two levels work well for those shorting or longing, in both directions.

$BTC bounced above the support line I previously marked at 79150, and is currently trading sideways. The US CPI (inflation) data is due on Tuesday, and the markets may remain relatively flat until then, assuming there are no developments on the Iranian side.

$USTC keeps touching the trend support I drew in pink and bouncing upwards, it has worked so far. $LUNC also seems to have overcome its intraday weakness a bit, I pay more attention to its weekday movements because the volume decreased over the weekend.

The $LUNC coin has risen approximately 175% since April 24th and has also experienced a correction of about 30% from its peak, which is a healthy increase. As long as it stays above 8200, I predict it will erase the zero again and rise above 10000, but if 8200 is broken, the whole scenario will be ruined. It's normal for it to be trading sideways because it's the weekend. The chart still looks positive; there's no reason to think negatively.

US Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC – April NFP data Forecast: 65K (previous 178K) | Unemployment: 4.3% | Wages: +0.3% MoM Scenarios: 🟢 60–95K → Goldilocks. $BTC , gold and equities up, DXY weak, September cut stays on the table 🔴 Above 130K → Hawkish shock. Strong dollar, pressure on crypto-gold, cut expectations pushed to 2027 🟡 Below 40K/negative → First reaction is dollar weakness, crypto-gold bid. If too weak, equities turn into recession sell-off ⚫ Low NFP + high wages → Stagflation. All risk assets under pressure, only gold decouples After March's 178K shock beat, the market is pricing in some payback; positioning is tilted dovish. That makes an upside surprise an asymmetric risk. The real focus isn't the headline — it's revisions + average hourly earnings. #nfp

US Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC – April NFP data Forecast: 65K (previous 178K) | Unemployment: 4.3% | Wages: +0.3% MoM Scenarios: - 60–95K → Goldilocks. $BTC , gold and equities up, DXY weak, September cut stays on the table - Above 130K → Hawkish shock. Strong dollar, pressure on crypto-gold, cut expectations pushed to 2027 - Below 40K/negative → First reaction is dollar weakness, crypto-gold bid. If too weak, equities turn into recession sell-off - Low NFP + high wages → Stagflation. All risk assets under pressure, only gold decouples After March's 178K shock beat, the market is pricing in some payback; positioning is tilted dovish. That makes an upside surprise an asymmetric risk. The real focus isn't the headline — it's revisions + average hourly earnings.

I pointed out earlier today that there was a trend and resistance intersection at the 10,000 point for $LUNC ; it hit there, and sellers suppressed buyers. Pay attention to the orange line; LUNC keeps hitting its head and going down. It needs to get out from under that trend line pressure. Drops to the 8,200 level can be considered normal, but if it breaks that point, problems will begin. Right now, there's no problem because it's above that level.

Let me explain what the 10,000 level means for $LUNC today. We are currently at the point of both a mini downtrend and the zero-wipe threshold. If it breaks above the orange downtrend and surpasses that point, it could test the 12,200 peak again. Let's see how strong the buyers are?

$LUNC extended its correction a bit, but I think it's on the verge of recovering. If it closes above 10,000 at the end of the day, this will be perceived as positive because even though the correction size is long, it indicates that buyers are coming in and signals a recovery. We are watching.

My $BTC short positions are still open. I added one more short at the 82,000 level to increase my cost basis. Now I'm watching from the sidelines until I reach my initial expectation of the 65,000 level, and then maybe 57,039?