ABS GLOBAL CRYPTO

~$1,2 TRILHÃO eliminado em apenas 1 HORA.
Isso por si só diz algo IMPORTANTE.
Se uma verdadeira guerra EUA-Irã fosse o verdadeiro impulsionador, os metais deveriam estar segurando a oferta de medo muito melhor do que isso.
Eles não estão.
O que significa que o primeiro pico já parece estar SUPERVALORIZADO.
Aqui está o porquê disso ser importante ⤵️
O ouro muitas vezes explode com a manchete da guerra…
Mas a menos que os fluxos de petróleo sejam realmente interrompidos, aquele primeiro rali geralmente desaparece rapidamente.
É exatamente isso que estamos vendo.
• O ouro disparou acima de $5.380
• A prata caiu e deslizou

Colapso da Habitação de 2007–2009
Ouro: $670 → $1.060
Crise COVID de 2019–2021
#Ouro: $1.200 → $2.030
2025–2026 ?
Ouro: $2.060 → $5.420
Se você acha que esse tipo de movimento acontece por causa de "ataques do Irã"…
Você está perdendo o ponto.
O ouro não se move assim em um mercado normal.
O ouro não precifica conflitos isolados.
O ouro se move assim quando os mercados começam a precificar algo MUITO maior.
EUA–Irã pode ser a faísca.
Mas o fogo parece:
• Um choque de petróleo
• Um choque inflacionário
• Um choque no transporte
• Um reset total de risco

Most people think this ends soon.
They may be very wrong.
Here’s what’s really happening 👇
• U.S. Air Force tankers & military assets are moving from Europe into the Middle East
• Iran’s Supreme Leader is reported dead — Ayatollah Alireza Arafi takes over
• Israel & U.S. bases are prepared — UAE (OAE) is the real vulnerability
• UAE was once one of the safest, most stable regions — that’s changing fast
If UAE takes real damage, pressure hits Donald Trump directly.
That could force calls to stop the war.
Russia & China are backing Iran and pushing for de-escalation — not out of peace, but risk control.
Do I believe in WW3?
Not really.
A real world war only makes sense between the U.S. & China — and it’s too expensive for both.
But…
We also thought Russia–Ukraine was unprofitable.
So nothing feels impossible anymore.
📉 Markets Outlook • Stocks likely open red
• Gold = potential pump
• Oil = unstable
• Crypto = volatility / possible dump incoming
⚠️ Expect violent swings.
The only positive sign:
Iran’s new leadership wants talks.
But Trump wants regime change, not negotiations — and Iran won’t accept that easily.
Bottom line:
High volatility. High risk. No certainty.
I’ll be posting daily crypto chart updates.
Follow ME & turn notifications on —
I’ll warn before major dumps or bounces, like I’ve already done this month.
Stay sharp. #IranConfirmsKhameneiIsDead #USIsraelStrikeIran #AnthropicUSGovClash

is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz.

This is the most important oil chokepoint on Earth.

And if you think this only affects oil traders…

You are completely wrong. 👇

1/
The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20.3 MILLION barrels of oil per day.

At $1.5 BILLION flowing through ONE narrow route every single day**.

That’s just oil.

2/
Now add LNG.

Hormuz also moves ~290 MILLION cubic meters of LNG per day.

Meaning the true energy value flowing through this chokepoint is FAR higher than most people realize.

Read that again.

3/
Today, OPEC+ announced they’ll increase output by 206,000 barrels/day starting April.

Sounds big, right?

Wrong.

4/
Compare the numbers:

• OPEC+ increase: 206,000 bpd
• Hormuz exposure: 20,300,000 bpd

That supply boost is irrelevant if Hormuz is disrupted.

This one comparison explains everything.

5/
Even if OPEC tries to calm markets, it cannot offset:

• Shipping disruption
• Insurance spikes
• War risk premium
• Physical delivery risk

The market knows this.

6/
That’s why this is already happening 👇

• Shipping costs rising
• Freight insurance jumping
• Energy volatility increasing
• War premium being priced in

This is BEFORE any closure.

That’s not normal.

7/
Markets don’t wait for confirmation.

They move on THREAT.

Even a partial disruption or prolonged tension is enough to reprice everything.

8/
If Hormuz is blocked, mined, delayed, or threatened:

🛢️ Oil spikes
🔥 LNG spikes
🚢 Shipping costs surge
📈 Inflation expectations jump
📉 Liquidity dries up
📊 Yields get pressured

This does NOT stay in oil.

9/
This is how a regional conflict turns into a GLOBAL macro shock.

It hits: • Stocks
• Bonds
• #crypto ($BTC )
• FX
• Airlines
• Transport
• Manufacturing
• Emerging markets

No asset is isolated.

10/
The scariest part?

The Strait doesn’t even need to close.

The risk premium alone can: • Shock inflation
• Tighten financial conditions
• Break correlations
• Force repricing across markets

11/
This is not fear-mongering.

This is risk concentration.

The most important energy artery on Earth is now sitting inside a live geopolitical escalation.

Speed matters more than probability.

12/
By the time headlines scream “CRISIS”…

Markets have already moved.

Smart money is watching Hormuz, not press conferences.

13/
This isn’t just an oil story.

It’s a global liquidity, inflation, and volatility story.

And it’s being massively underpriced.

14/
⚠️ THIS IS A WARNING ⚠️
Not because something might happen…

But
because markets always reprice faster than narratives.

Follow & turn on notifications.

I’ll post the warning before it hits the headlines. 🔔📉🔥

A recente venda parece estar esgotada. Isso abre a porta para um período de consolidação lateral, talvez um mês. Um retorno em direção aos 70 e poucos é possível, mas provavelmente será rejeitado.

A visão mais ampla ainda é baixista.

Tanto a liquidez à vista quanto a de futuros estão se deteriorando. Historicamente, $BTC não sustenta ralis quando ambas estão fracas ao mesmo tempo.

Se estamos falando de tempo:

⏲ Q4 pode marcar a fase final da tendência baixista
⏲ Q1–Q2 2027 é uma janela mais realista para um forte momento altista