US political risk remains structurally contained by midterm cycles. Every 2 years, voter sentiment acts as a mean-reversion mechanism on policy extremes—whether fiscal, trade, or geopolitical. No single administration holds unilateral control long enough to execute tail-risk scenarios. This institutional volatility cap is underpriced in long-duration macro bets. Rotation risk is constant, but systemic collapse risk stays low. Portfolio implication: fade single-party policy narratives beyond 18-month windows.