• Solana traded at $95.40 on Nov 1, below the $96 support zone flagged on Oct 27.
• Alejandro Arrieche set $96 and the 200-day EMA as primary daily support on Oct 27.
• Arrieche's downside scenario projected a slide toward $84-$77 if $96 failed, with $110 on recovery.
SOL Crosses Under the $96 Mark
The Solana (SOL) price moved under the $96 support zone on Nov 1, with market snapshots taken at 05:01 UTC showing $95.40 and a follow-up reading at 06:38 UTC printing $95.49. The 24-hour window recorded alongside those snapshots spanned $95.16 to $96.10, so the token spent the session oscillating around the $96 line rather than settling on one side of it. COINOTAG's live monitoring now puts SOL at $95.48, down 0.24% over 24 hours, still beneath the band in question. One caveat matters: the values are page displays rather than confirmed fills on a specific spot pair, so a single intraday reading cannot settle whether support has held or given way. Solana, the layer 1 blockchain protocol behind a large payments and decentralized-applications ecosystem, has been compressing near the bottom of its recent range through the past week, a stretch our Solana ecosystem coverage has followed from the $100 retest to this band test.
The $96 area carries weight because of a projection issued on Oct 27 by Alejandro Arrieche, senior virtual assets analyst at FXEmpire. Writing when SOL was retesting the region around $100, Arrieche projected that weak sentiment and seller-side control would pull the market down to $96 for a renewed test of past support. He set $96 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a long-term moving average that weights recent prices more heavily, as the primary support band on the daily chart. That reading rested on two stated conditions, soft sentiment and order flow tilted toward sellers, and the Nov 1 snapshots landed almost exactly where that framework pointed. His note stated that the EMA and $96 levels belonged to the Oct 27 analysis, not to live indicator values, a distinction that matters because the EMA moves with price each session. The gap between the two Nov 1 snapshots was under $0.10, a margin small enough to suggest the market was marking time at the level.
Composite Resistance Sits at $96.76
The $96 zone now reads differently on our own scoring. COINOTAG's composite support and resistance model, which grades each level from 0 to 100 by the indicators converging on it, places the strongest resistance at $96.76, scored 93 out of 100, directly overhead, with the deepest support at $93.81, scored 85/100, not far below. The MACD signal is bearish, the RSI sits at 30.13 and the trend reading is a downtrend, so momentum points the same direction as the slide under the band. Positioning data adds a wrinkle: perpetual funding at -0.0006% and a long/short account ratio of 3.75, with 78.9% of accounts still long. The full support and resistance levels are set out in our Solana technical analysis.
Conditional Targets From the Oct 27 Note
Arrieche's Oct 27 framework ran in two directions, both explicitly conditional. A daily recovery of the support band would open an attempt to reclaim $110, while a loss of $96 exposed a slide toward $84 to $77, with the analyst framing both branches as scenarios for that moment rather than standing forecasts. The market has since traded through the lower edge of that map. Price-history records show an intraday low of $99.29 on Oct 29, followed by the $95.16 to $96.10 range carried on the Nov 1 snapshots. The two readings deserve care: the earlier low came from a different venue's price history, and price histories differ in method from one exchange to the next, so the figures cannot be chained into a single drawdown measurement.
Confirmation of a genuine break is therefore pending in a specific sense. A displayed page value under $96 shows where the market sat at a moment, not that the level failed on a closing basis. The difference between an intraday dip and a daily close beneath the band is what separates a wobble from a regime change, and until a daily candle lands clearly on one side, the $110 and $84-$77 branches remain the working map for anyone trading the projection.
Nothing in the projection touched the structural pipeline around the token, which kept producing separate developments while the price compressed. COINOTAG's own coverage put tokenized real-world asset value on the network at a record $5.19 billion on Oct 29, while Mirae Asset issued a Solana tokenized bond inside its $3 billion program. Those sit apart from the technical picture, though both belong to the wider altcoin market backdrop rather than to the support story. What decides the near-term path is the tape itself: the market finished the Nov 1 snapshots under the band, no daily close has reclaimed it yet, and the next candles determine which branch of the map activates.
