Se o XRP se mantiver em seu canal ascendente de 9 anos, poderá chegar a US$ 30 até 2028

Crypto News and Tradfi News - COINOTAG · 2026-10-26T09:00:43.000Z

• O XRP está sendo negociado cerca de 64% abaixo de sua máxima histórica de US$ 3,66, registrada em julho de 2025. • O piso do canal está entre US$ 0,7 e US$ 1,1 no gráfico quinzenal em escala logarítmica. • Um fechamento quinzenal abaixo de US$ 0,7 invalidaria o cenário de uma alta para mais de US$ 30. O canal traçado desde 2017 Para o XRP ser negociado perto dos US$ 30 até 2028, uma linha precisa continuar se sustentando. Uma análise gráfica que circulou neste fim de semana situa o ativo dentro de um canal ascendente de longo prazo que tem contido o preço do XRP no gráfico quinzenal desde 2017, e aponta o limite inferior do canal como a única condição da qual depende toda projeção otimista. A estrutura é formada por duas linhas de tendência ascendentes que guiaram o ativo ao longo de vários ciclos completos de mercado, com a linha superior subindo ano após ano. Em escala logarítmica, o piso agora se encontra entre US$ 0,7 e US$ 1,1. É nessa faixa que o mercado está após uma queda de aproximadamente 64% em relação à máxima histórica de US$ 3,66, registrada em julho de 2025 — recuo que nossa cobertura do XRP vem acompanhando desde o pico. A faixa é apresentada como a última linha de defesa da estrutura plurianual, uma importante zona de suporte, e não como uma estrutura rompida. Uma linha central tracejada cruza o meio do canal entre US$ 1,7 e US$ 2,6, zona que analistas consideram o primeiro teto a ser superado em qualquer recuperação: o XRP teria de voltar a esse patamar antes de testar qualquer resistência mais alta. A linha de tendência superior sustenta o cenário otimista. Projetada até 2028, ela indica uma faixa de US$ 24 a US$ 38, de onde vem o valor de US$ 30. A mesma análise afirma claramente que se trata de uma estimativa incerta, e não de um resultado calculado, e aponta o que essa projeção exigiria: compras constantes e persistentes, além do apoio do mercado mais amplo de altcoins — fatores que o gráfico, por si só, não pode garantir. O período analisado torna o teste ainda mais rigoroso. No gráfico quinzenal, uma sombra intraperíodo abaixo da faixa ainda pode ser recuperada, mas um fechamento confirmado abaixo dela seria um evento totalmente diferente: encerraria a estrutura de nove anos, em vez de apenas testá-la.

• XRP trades about 64% below its $3.66 all-time high from July 2025.
• The channel floor sits between $0.7 and $1.1 on a logarithmic biweekly chart.
• A biweekly close below $0.7 would void the $30-plus rally scenario.
The Channel Drawn Since 2017
For XRP to trade anywhere near $30 by 2028, one line has to keep holding. Chart analysis circulating this weekend places the asset inside a long-term ascending channel that has contained the XRP price on the biweekly chart since 2017, and it frames the channel's lower boundary as the single condition on which every bullish projection rests. The structure is built from two upward-sloping trendlines that have steered the asset through several complete market cycles, with the upper trendline rising year after year. On a logarithmic scale, the floor now sits between $0.7 and $1.1, and that is where the market finds itself after a drawdown of roughly 64% from the all-time high of $3.66 set in July 2025, a slide our XRP coverage has followed since the peak. The band is presented as the last line of defense for the multi-year structure, an important support area rather than a broken one. A dashed midline crosses the middle of the channel at $1.7 to $2.6, and analysts treat that zone as the first ceiling on any recovery: XRP would have to reclaim it before testing resistance anywhere higher. The upper trendline carries the bullish side of the story. Extended through 2028, it projects a band of $24 to $38, which is where the $30 figure originates. The same analysis states plainly that this is an uncertain estimate rather than a measured outcome, and it names what the projection would demand: steady, persistent buying and support from the broader altcoin market, neither of which the chart itself can supply. The timeframe sharpens the test. On the biweekly chart, an intraweek wick below the band can still be recovered, but a confirmed close beneath it would be a different event entirely, one that ends the nine-year structure rather than merely testing it.
The $0.7 Line and the 2,206% Question
The channel did not appear from nowhere. Its foundation is the price structure built between 2013 and early 2017, when XRP traded inside a flat range, printing lower highs against level support as price action converged toward a decision point. The range broke upward in January 2017 at roughly $0.006, and the bull market that followed carried the coin to $3.3 by January 2018, a gain of more than 55,000%. The long-term channel was drawn directly on top of that structure. A smaller pattern sits inside it. From 2021 through 2024, XRP spent years moving sideways inside a symmetrical triangle. The triangle resolved upward in late 2024, and the breakout powered the advance to the $3.66 all-time high of July 2025, a move the analysis reads as support for the channel's bullish interpretation. The subsequent slide of about 64% has handed most of that advance back and returned price to the channel's lower portion. The damage shows up elsewhere too: XRP has completed a death cross below the 200-day EMA near $1.37, and our earlier reporting recorded that whale wallets fell to 339, down from 351, during the drawdown. The decisive test is defined in one sentence. A biweekly close firmly below $0.7 would collapse the channel floor and take the $30-plus rally scenario down with it, while a successful defense of the zone would give any recovery a base to build from. Between those outcomes sits the harder requirement. Reaching $30 means climbing about 2,206%, a move the analysis says needs sustained demand and market-wide backing rather than a single burst of speculation.
The conditional shape of the thesis deserves emphasis, because nothing on record says the floor will hold, only that it has held so far. The projection also says nothing about XRP's tokenomics; it is pure price structure, and the analysis itself warns that a resemblance to 2017 guarantees no repetition of 2017. The first measurable checkpoint would be a reclaim of the midline at $1.7 to $2.6, and our XRP technical analysis tracks those support and resistance levels as they shift. Whether spot trading demand materializes at $0.7 to $1.1 is the nearer condition; the 2,206% climb and the market-wide support it assumes are the furthest, and the sources attach no measure to either.