Nearly half of what we buy is still inflating above 3% year-over-year. That's the reality beneath the headline number.

But the six-month trend tells a different story—only 38% of prices are running that hot when you zoom in closer. That's improvement, not victory.

Inflation isn't one number. It's hundreds of small battles across rent, eggs, insurance, cars. Some cooling, some still burning. The average hides the mess.

The Fed sees this. They know the last mile is the hardest. Declaring mission accomplished too early has burned central banks before.