September CPI came in hot. Headline up 0.6% monthly, 3.7% yearly. Core at 0.3%/2.6%.
Market's first reaction? Yields spiked, October rate hike odds jumped. Then cooler heads prevailed — both pulled back during the session.
This is the dance now. Every data point triggers a knee-jerk, then reality sets in. The Fed's probably done hiking unless something breaks badly, but the market loves to panic first and think later.
Inflation's sticky, not surging. The path down is slow and bumpy. If you're reacting to every CPI print like it's a crisis, you're going to exhaust yourself.
Stay calm. This is normal volatility in a disinflationary cycle.
Market's first reaction? Yields spiked, October rate hike odds jumped. Then cooler heads prevailed — both pulled back during the session.
This is the dance now. Every data point triggers a knee-jerk, then reality sets in. The Fed's probably done hiking unless something breaks badly, but the market loves to panic first and think later.
Inflation's sticky, not surging. The path down is slow and bumpy. If you're reacting to every CPI print like it's a crisis, you're going to exhaust yourself.
Stay calm. This is normal volatility in a disinflationary cycle.