Bunch of interesting stuff worth chewing on:
• Market concentration isn't going away. Get used to it.
• Higher rates might actually be healthier than zero rates were. ZIRP broke everything — incentives, risk assessment, capital allocation. At least now there's a cost to being stupid with money.
• Degens never left. They just moved from one casino to another.
• Survey data is getting worse because rich people stopped answering. Selection bias everywhere.
• People love betting on longshots because the emotional payoff beats the math. Always has.
• Tariffs remain a bad idea. Protectionism doesn't work. Never did.
The through-line here: markets adapt, human behavior doesn't. We keep making the same mistakes in different wrappers.
• Market concentration isn't going away. Get used to it.
• Higher rates might actually be healthier than zero rates were. ZIRP broke everything — incentives, risk assessment, capital allocation. At least now there's a cost to being stupid with money.
• Degens never left. They just moved from one casino to another.
• Survey data is getting worse because rich people stopped answering. Selection bias everywhere.
• People love betting on longshots because the emotional payoff beats the math. Always has.
• Tariffs remain a bad idea. Protectionism doesn't work. Never did.
The through-line here: markets adapt, human behavior doesn't. We keep making the same mistakes in different wrappers.