Equal-weight vs market-cap S&P 500 divergence now at extremes that historically signal reversals.
When the mega-caps pull this far ahead of the median stock, it's usually late innings. The index looks fine because seven names are doing all the work. Beneath the surface, breadth is deteriorating.
This pattern has preceded every major top since 2000. Doesn't mean it crashes tomorrow, but the risk-reward has shifted. Concentration risk is real, and reversion to the mean is patient but inevitable.
When the mega-caps pull this far ahead of the median stock, it's usually late innings. The index looks fine because seven names are doing all the work. Beneath the surface, breadth is deteriorating.
This pattern has preceded every major top since 2000. Doesn't mean it crashes tomorrow, but the risk-reward has shifted. Concentration risk is real, and reversion to the mean is patient but inevitable.
