September jobs report just landed: unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, slightly above the 4.1% expected.
Not a disaster, but not great either. The labor market is cooling, slowly. This is what the Fed wanted—just enough slack to ease wage pressures without breaking things.
The question now: is this a soft landing in progress, or the early innings of something worse?
History says unemployment rarely moves sideways. It either stays low or starts climbing faster than anyone expects. We're watching the trajectory more than the number itself.
For now, the market will probably shrug this off. But if we see 4.5% or higher in the next few months, the narrative shifts fast.
Not a disaster, but not great either. The labor market is cooling, slowly. This is what the Fed wanted—just enough slack to ease wage pressures without breaking things.
The question now: is this a soft landing in progress, or the early innings of something worse?
History says unemployment rarely moves sideways. It either stays low or starts climbing faster than anyone expects. We're watching the trajectory more than the number itself.
For now, the market will probably shrug this off. But if we see 4.5% or higher in the next few months, the narrative shifts fast.
