Refinance demand just hit a 12-month low, dropping nearly 9% in a single week.
When rates climb, people stop refinancing. When people stop refinancing, it tells you something about where they think rates are headed—and how trapped they feel in their current mortgages.
This isn't just a housing story. It's a liquidity story. Homeowners who would've pulled cash out to spend, invest, or pay down debt are now sitting still. That money isn't moving through the economy.
The psychology matters more than the number. People refinance when they believe rates are falling or when they need relief. Right now, neither is true.
When rates climb, people stop refinancing. When people stop refinancing, it tells you something about where they think rates are headed—and how trapped they feel in their current mortgages.
This isn't just a housing story. It's a liquidity story. Homeowners who would've pulled cash out to spend, invest, or pay down debt are now sitting still. That money isn't moving through the economy.
The psychology matters more than the number. People refinance when they believe rates are falling or when they need relief. Right now, neither is true.
