Throw $1000 into $MU today. What's it worth by 2030?
Short answer: $3000 or $600.
Earnings drop Sept 30 after hours. Street's pricing in $51.2B revenue, EPS over $31, guidance of $55-57B next Q. Options are implying ±10% move. If management repeats "supply-demand tight through 2027+" and HBM4 yields/shipments beat, they're kicking the can on cyclicality.
But here's the setup: $MU just dumped $200B into capacity expansion across 6 US fabs plus Singapore. SK Hynix throwing $38B at Korea, Samsung piling in, CXMT pushing HBM. Every memory supercycle tops the same way—everyone screams "this time is different," then prices get cut in half. Someone's already betting on a 50% crash by early Oct with 13K puts at $540 strike.
What's different vs 2018/2021? Long-term contracts with customer deposits. They've raised the cycle floor and locked in margin visibility through 2030. But the market's already priced that in. You're buying the right side of the top, betting this cycle stretches 2-3 more years.
Three scenarios for your $1000:
1. Supply lags + AI keeps burning cash → $2000-3000. 2-3x not a meme.
2. Cycle plays out normal → $1200-1800. Decent flip.
3. Supply wave hits 2028 → 50%+ drawdown. Your $1000 becomes $600.
Cyclical stocks never change. When scarcity ends, slow runners pay the bill.
Short answer: $3000 or $600.
Earnings drop Sept 30 after hours. Street's pricing in $51.2B revenue, EPS over $31, guidance of $55-57B next Q. Options are implying ±10% move. If management repeats "supply-demand tight through 2027+" and HBM4 yields/shipments beat, they're kicking the can on cyclicality.
But here's the setup: $MU just dumped $200B into capacity expansion across 6 US fabs plus Singapore. SK Hynix throwing $38B at Korea, Samsung piling in, CXMT pushing HBM. Every memory supercycle tops the same way—everyone screams "this time is different," then prices get cut in half. Someone's already betting on a 50% crash by early Oct with 13K puts at $540 strike.
What's different vs 2018/2021? Long-term contracts with customer deposits. They've raised the cycle floor and locked in margin visibility through 2030. But the market's already priced that in. You're buying the right side of the top, betting this cycle stretches 2-3 more years.
Three scenarios for your $1000:
1. Supply lags + AI keeps burning cash → $2000-3000. 2-3x not a meme.
2. Cycle plays out normal → $1200-1800. Decent flip.
3. Supply wave hits 2028 → 50%+ drawdown. Your $1000 becomes $600.
Cyclical stocks never change. When scarcity ends, slow runners pay the bill.