Atlanta Fed survey shows something interesting: nearly half of companies still planning to hire more people over the next year. Only 10% expecting cuts.
This isn't the labor market behavior you'd see if recession was imminent. Firms don't staff up into a downturn.
But here's what matters more than the headline: the gap between those hiring and those cutting is wide. That spread tells you about confidence. When it narrows fast, that's your early warning.
For now, the labor market remains surprisingly resilient. Which means the Fed's job isn't done. Strong employment gives them room to keep rates higher for longer if inflation stays sticky.
Watch what companies do, not what they say in earnings calls.
This isn't the labor market behavior you'd see if recession was imminent. Firms don't staff up into a downturn.
But here's what matters more than the headline: the gap between those hiring and those cutting is wide. That spread tells you about confidence. When it narrows fast, that's your early warning.
For now, the labor market remains surprisingly resilient. Which means the Fed's job isn't done. Strong employment gives them room to keep rates higher for longer if inflation stays sticky.
Watch what companies do, not what they say in earnings calls.
