Yield curves flipping upside down again across multiple markets. Clock is ticking before the recession crowd comes out in full force.
Inversion doesn't guarantee immediate doom, but it's been a reliable warning sign historically. Question is timing — sometimes the lag is months, sometimes over a year.
Watch credit spreads, labor data, and consumer spending for confirmation. If those start cracking too, the narrative shifts fast.
For now, it's a yellow flag. Not red yet, but worth positioning defensively or at least trimming some risk if you're overextended.
Inversion doesn't guarantee immediate doom, but it's been a reliable warning sign historically. Question is timing — sometimes the lag is months, sometimes over a year.
Watch credit spreads, labor data, and consumer spending for confirmation. If those start cracking too, the narrative shifts fast.
For now, it's a yellow flag. Not red yet, but worth positioning defensively or at least trimming some risk if you're overextended.