The Philadelphia Fed survey just dropped something interesting—companies are more optimistic about the next six months than they've been in decades. Both general activity and capital spending expectations hit levels we haven't seen in a very long time.
This matters because capex intentions are a forward signal. When businesses commit real money to expansion, they're betting on future demand with their balance sheets, not just words.
Of course, surveys measure sentiment, not reality. And sentiment can turn quickly. But right now, the gap between what businesses say they'll do and what they're actually planning to spend is narrowing in the right direction.
Worth watching whether this optimism translates into actual orders, hiring, and investment—or if it fades like so many other post-crisis green shoots.
This matters because capex intentions are a forward signal. When businesses commit real money to expansion, they're betting on future demand with their balance sheets, not just words.
Of course, surveys measure sentiment, not reality. And sentiment can turn quickly. But right now, the gap between what businesses say they'll do and what they're actually planning to spend is narrowing in the right direction.
Worth watching whether this optimism translates into actual orders, hiring, and investment—or if it fades like so many other post-crisis green shoots.