#cmeseptemberhikeoddsfallto30.6%
For most of this cycle, crypto traders have been focused on the odds of Fed rate cuts. But lately, the story flipped — the market was actually pricing in a possible rate hike.
That narrative is cooling fast.
CME FedWatch now shows September hike odds around 30%, while a hold at 3.50%–3.75% is the clear base case at roughly 70%. That’s a big change from late July, when hike odds briefly topped 80%.
Two key data points helped ease the pressure:
• July payrolls fell by 23K vs. ~85K expected
• July CPI came in line with forecasts instead of running hotter
At the July 29 meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but the 9-3 vote showed some serious disagreement, with three officials favoring a hike.
Now, all eyes are on the July meeting minutes coming August 19. Markets will be watching closely to see whether the hawkish camp is gaining momentum or fading.
For crypto and other risk assets, falling hike odds can still be supportive through lower yields and a softer dollar.
The bigger question: does falling hike probability boost risk sentiment nearly as much as rising cut odds?
$GPS
$TUT
$STAR
#ChinaJulyOutputRetailInvestmentAllMiss #CardanoSplitsDijkstraUpgradeIntoTwoPhases #SECReviewsSix3xLeveragedCommodityETFs #USToPressNationsToPickUSOrChinaAICoalition
For most of this cycle, crypto traders have been focused on the odds of Fed rate cuts. But lately, the story flipped — the market was actually pricing in a possible rate hike.
That narrative is cooling fast.
CME FedWatch now shows September hike odds around 30%, while a hold at 3.50%–3.75% is the clear base case at roughly 70%. That’s a big change from late July, when hike odds briefly topped 80%.
Two key data points helped ease the pressure:
• July payrolls fell by 23K vs. ~85K expected
• July CPI came in line with forecasts instead of running hotter
At the July 29 meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but the 9-3 vote showed some serious disagreement, with three officials favoring a hike.
Now, all eyes are on the July meeting minutes coming August 19. Markets will be watching closely to see whether the hawkish camp is gaining momentum or fading.
For crypto and other risk assets, falling hike odds can still be supportive through lower yields and a softer dollar.
The bigger question: does falling hike probability boost risk sentiment nearly as much as rising cut odds?
$GPS
$TUT
$STAR
#ChinaJulyOutputRetailInvestmentAllMiss #CardanoSplitsDijkstraUpgradeIntoTwoPhases #SECReviewsSix3xLeveragedCommodityETFs #USToPressNationsToPickUSOrChinaAICoalition