New report out: The Balance of Risks (August 2026).
My read is we're late-cycle, not at the end. Base case into Q4: a midterm correction that resolves into recovery. The bigger risk isn't a dovish Fed pivot — it's energy forcing another hike.
Still positioning for structure to hold, not break. Time and price say we're not done yet, just navigating the final stretch before the real pivot arrives.
My read is we're late-cycle, not at the end. Base case into Q4: a midterm correction that resolves into recovery. The bigger risk isn't a dovish Fed pivot — it's energy forcing another hike.
Still positioning for structure to hold, not break. Time and price say we're not done yet, just navigating the final stretch before the real pivot arrives.