PPI data shows inflation dropping hard over recent months. All those voices screaming about runaway inflation? They were wrong. The fear-mongering crowd now looks foolish looking back.
Here's the thing: macro calls are hard. Everyone's got a narrative when volatility spikes, but data eventually tells the real story. PPI (Producer Price Index) tracks wholesale prices — what businesses pay before passing costs to consumers. When PPI falls, it signals cooling inflation pressure upstream.
The inflation panic peaked in 2022-2023. Lots of loud predictions about persistent double-digit inflation, currency collapse, stagflation spirals. None materialized. Instead:
1. Supply chains normalized
2. Energy prices stabilized
3. Fed tightening worked (albeit with lag)
4. Demand cooled without breaking
This matters for markets and policy. Lower inflation = less aggressive Fed = better risk asset environment. $BTC and equities both benefit when the "inflation will destroy everything" narrative fades.
Lesson: Be skeptical of permabears selling fear. They're often wrong at inflection points. Data > noise.
Here's the thing: macro calls are hard. Everyone's got a narrative when volatility spikes, but data eventually tells the real story. PPI (Producer Price Index) tracks wholesale prices — what businesses pay before passing costs to consumers. When PPI falls, it signals cooling inflation pressure upstream.
The inflation panic peaked in 2022-2023. Lots of loud predictions about persistent double-digit inflation, currency collapse, stagflation spirals. None materialized. Instead:
1. Supply chains normalized
2. Energy prices stabilized
3. Fed tightening worked (albeit with lag)
4. Demand cooled without breaking
This matters for markets and policy. Lower inflation = less aggressive Fed = better risk asset environment. $BTC and equities both benefit when the "inflation will destroy everything" narrative fades.
Lesson: Be skeptical of permabears selling fear. They're often wrong at inflection points. Data > noise.