#特朗普暂停新关税
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced on April 9, 2025, a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" for most countries, during which a 10% baseline tariff will be maintained. This decision is mainly influenced by the following factors:
1. Bond market turmoil: U.S. Treasury bonds faced massive sell-offs, with the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds soaring nearly 60 basis points in three days, briefly surpassing the 5% mark. Internal concerns within the Treasury regarding market risks became the core motivation for suspending the tariffs.
2. Economic consequence concerns: If the bond sell-off continues, it could trigger the most severe financial crisis since 1981. Wall Street generally believes that while suspending tariffs can stabilize the market in the short term, the policy inconsistency exacerbates uncertainty.
3. Multiple pressures: Republican lawmakers, business executives, and Wall Street allies pressured Trump through phone calls and meetings, urging him to reconsider the tariff policy. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that an economic recession could be a "possible outcome" of the new tariffs.
It is noteworthy that Trump also imposed a 125% tariff on China, aimed at forcing China to make concessions in negotiations through extreme pressure. Current market reactions show divergence: the three major U.S. stock indexes recorded the largest single-day gains in history, but institutions like Goldman Sachs still predict a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced on April 9, 2025, a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" for most countries, during which a 10% baseline tariff will be maintained. This decision is mainly influenced by the following factors:
1. Bond market turmoil: U.S. Treasury bonds faced massive sell-offs, with the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds soaring nearly 60 basis points in three days, briefly surpassing the 5% mark. Internal concerns within the Treasury regarding market risks became the core motivation for suspending the tariffs.
2. Economic consequence concerns: If the bond sell-off continues, it could trigger the most severe financial crisis since 1981. Wall Street generally believes that while suspending tariffs can stabilize the market in the short term, the policy inconsistency exacerbates uncertainty.
3. Multiple pressures: Republican lawmakers, business executives, and Wall Street allies pressured Trump through phone calls and meetings, urging him to reconsider the tariff policy. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that an economic recession could be a "possible outcome" of the new tariffs.
It is noteworthy that Trump also imposed a 125% tariff on China, aimed at forcing China to make concessions in negotiations through extreme pressure. Current market reactions show divergence: the three major U.S. stock indexes recorded the largest single-day gains in history, but institutions like Goldman Sachs still predict a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months.