binancehacked

First of all, BTCVN4 would like to sincerely apologize to the community for the assessment shared in the previous analysis.
In my previous post, I assessed that BTC was in an accumulation phase, with selling pressure showing signs of being absorbed and a relatively high possibility of a new upward move.
That assessment was based on the money flow data available at the time, when large orders on Binance were still showing net buying activity and BTC was maintaining a relatively stable trading range.
However, the serious hacking incident at Binance itself triggered a major shock to market sentiment and selling pressure that I had completely failed to anticipate.
BTCVN4 takes responsibility for an assessment that did not fully account for the risks of such an extraordinary event. I sincerely apologize if my previous analysis created expectations that did not align with actual market developments.
In investing, the most important thing is not to always make the right predictions, but to remain honest with the data and be willing to adjust our views when market conditions change.
Now, let’s take a closer look at what is happening with Bitcoin.
1. MONEY FLOWS HAVE REVERSED: SELLING PRESSURE IS DOMINATING
According to the Binance and OKX data on October 30, BTC was trading around 78,284 USDT.
Three points are particularly noteworthy:
Total selling volume exceeded buying volume by approximately 2,015 BTC.Large orders shifted to net selling, with 873 BTC in net outflows.Medium-sized orders recorded more than 1,139 BTC in net selling.
This shows that money flow conditions have changed significantly in a relatively short period.
It is a clear signal that selling pressure is increasing and market sentiment has deteriorated considerably.
2. BTC MONEY FLOWS ACROSS THE MARKET: AN INTERESTING DIFFERENCE
According to aggregated on-chain data as of October 29:
Daily Netflow: approximately -23,551 BTC.7-day average: approximately -2,878 BTC per day.30-day average: approximately -849 BTC per day.
A negative netflow means that more BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, based on the dataset being tracked.
This is an important signal because it does not suggest that the entire market is rushing to deposit BTC onto exchanges for a massive sell-off.
It indicates that the current market situation is much more complicated than simply looking at the decline in BTC’s price.
3. HOW HAS THE BINANCE HACK AFFECTED MARKET SENTIMENT?
A serious security incident at a major exchange like Binance does not only affect assets directly associated with the exchange.
It can also trigger three major ripple effects:
First: Panic and fear.
Investors become concerned about the safety of assets held on centralized exchanges. As a result, they may reduce their risk exposure and sell assets to move into cash or alternative storage solutions.
Second: Liquidity pressure.
When Binance needs to conduct security investigations or temporarily suspend certain deposit and withdrawal services, asset transfers may be disrupted. This can make the market more sensitive to unusual price movements.
Third: Contagion effect.
In the crypto market, sentiment is highly interconnected. An incident involving Binance can undermine investor confidence in the entire crypto market, including assets that are not directly related to the incident.
In my view, this is precisely what makes the current BTC decline different from an ordinary technical correction.
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BTC HAS LOST ITS SHORT-TERM BULLISH STRUCTURE
BTC Price: approximately 78,284 USDT.EMA20: 80,064 USDT.EMA50: 80,686 USDT.EMA100: 81,343 USDT.EMA200: 81,527 USDT.RSI(6): 32.35.RSI(12): 36.84.RSI(24): 40.04.MACD: -264.39.
Currently, BTC is trading below all major EMA indicators on the 4-hour timeframe.
The negative MACD and weakening RSI indicate that bearish momentum is dominating.
However, BTC has formed a lower candle wick around 76,500 USDT before recovering to approximately 78,300 USDT.
This suggests that buying demand has emerged at lower price levels, but there is not yet enough evidence to confirm that a bottom has formed.
5. KEY PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH
76,500–77,000 USDT: Important Support Zone
If BTC manages to hold this area, the market still has a chance to stabilize following the shock.
79,700–80,100 USDT: First Recovery Zone
BTC needs to reclaim this area to improve its short-term price structure.
80,600–81,500 USDT: Strong Resistance Zone
This area contains the EMA50, EMA100, and EMA200 levels. If BTC recovers toward this zone, trading volume and buying pressure will need to be closely monitored.
84,900 USDT: Further Recovery Target
This level should only be considered if BTC successfully reclaims the lower resistance zones and an upward trend is confirmed.
6. THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR BTC IN THE COMING PERIOD
Scenario 1 – Recovery After the Shock
BTC holds the 76,500–77,000 USDT zone, selling pressure gradually decreases, large orders return to net buying, and the price reclaims 80,000 USDT.
In this case, the decline could be viewed as a strong reaction to the incident, followed by a gradual market recovery.
Scenario 2 – Continued Accumulation Within a Wide Range
BTC fluctuates between 76,500 and 80,000 USDT.
Investors need more time to rebuild confidence, while the market needs to absorb the additional supply generated by the incident.
Scenario 3 – Further Downside Correction
BTC breaks below 76,500 USDT, selling pressure continues to dominate, and buying demand proves insufficient to drive a recovery.
In this situation, investors should remain cautious about the possibility of a deeper correction.
7. BTCVN4’S PERSONAL CONCLUSION: SEPARATE EVENT-DRIVEN RISKS FROM THE LONG-TERM MARKET TREND
BTCVN4 still believes that we should not equate a security incident at Binance with a fundamental breakdown of the entire crypto market.
However, this incident has significantly changed the short-term market environment. My previous assessment that BTC was accumulating ahead of another upward move needs to be reassessed.
At this point, BTCVN4 is prioritizing four factors:
Progress in resolving the incident and restoring Binance’s deposit and withdrawal services.BTC money flows across exchanges over the coming days.Whether large orders return to net buying.Whether BTC can hold the 76,500–77,000 USDT support zone and reclaim 80,000 USDT.
BTCVN4 is not rushing to conclude that the market has formed a bottom, but there is also insufficient evidence to confirm that a prolonged market collapse is underway.
Once again, BTCVN4 would like to sincerely apologize to the community for failing to anticipate the shock caused by the Binance hacking incident in the previous analysis.
In investing, nobody can accurately predict every unexpected event. What matters is being honest with the data, identifying risks, and adjusting our strategies when circumstances change.
Thank you all for continuing to follow, support, and share your perspectives.
Let’s remain calm, monitor market developments, manage our capital carefully, and avoid allowing crowd psychology to dictate our investment decisions.
There will always be new opportunities in the market, but protecting capital must always come first.
— BTCVN4
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