HY spreads have widened over 4 months — but context matters.
Merton model (equity vol + leverage + levels) says spreads still track fundamentals cleanly. Credit isn't screaming stress. You'd have to squint hard to call this elevated.
Actually, corporate spreads look cheap vs. long-dated equity puts. Leverage, vol, and price action all say credit is fine.
Doomers: take a breath. This isn't 2008. It's noise, not a regime break.
Merton model (equity vol + leverage + levels) says spreads still track fundamentals cleanly. Credit isn't screaming stress. You'd have to squint hard to call this elevated.
Actually, corporate spreads look cheap vs. long-dated equity puts. Leverage, vol, and price action all say credit is fine.
Doomers: take a breath. This isn't 2008. It's noise, not a regime break.
