MVRV dropping below 1 is one of those moments that feels like the market just tapped you on the shoulder and whispered, "Hey, remember me?"
For those who've been around a few cycles, you know what this means — the average holder is underwater. It's not a guarantee of anything, but historically? This zone has been where patient money gets made. Not tomorrow, not next week, but eventually.
I've seen this play out before. 2018, 2020, even parts of 2022. When MVRV dips under 1, it's like the market is pricing in maximum pessimism. Everyone's convinced it's over. The tourists are gone. The noise dies down. And that's usually when the setup starts to form.
Does it mean we bottom here? Nah, nobody knows. Could chop around for months. But it does mean we're in a zone where historically, the risk/reward starts tilting in your favor — if you're thinking in years, not days.
Just a vibe check. Not advice. But yeah, this is one of those metrics I still pay attention to after all these years. 🪦
For those who've been around a few cycles, you know what this means — the average holder is underwater. It's not a guarantee of anything, but historically? This zone has been where patient money gets made. Not tomorrow, not next week, but eventually.
I've seen this play out before. 2018, 2020, even parts of 2022. When MVRV dips under 1, it's like the market is pricing in maximum pessimism. Everyone's convinced it's over. The tourists are gone. The noise dies down. And that's usually when the setup starts to form.
Does it mean we bottom here? Nah, nobody knows. Could chop around for months. But it does mean we're in a zone where historically, the risk/reward starts tilting in your favor — if you're thinking in years, not days.
Just a vibe check. Not advice. But yeah, this is one of those metrics I still pay attention to after all these years. 🪦