Empire Manufacturing just flashed red on supply chains again. Delivery times stretching out, backlogs piling up, suppliers can't keep up.
August data. Not exactly the "soft landing" script everyone's been reading from.
We've seen this movie before. When things take longer to arrive and orders stack up, it's either demand running too hot or supply breaking down. Sometimes both.
Either way, it gums up the works. Inflation gets stickier. Margins get squeezed. The Fed stays hawkish longer than anyone wants.
Pay attention to what's actually happening in the real economy, not just what the models say should happen.
August data. Not exactly the "soft landing" script everyone's been reading from.
We've seen this movie before. When things take longer to arrive and orders stack up, it's either demand running too hot or supply breaking down. Sometimes both.
Either way, it gums up the works. Inflation gets stickier. Margins get squeezed. The Fed stays hawkish longer than anyone wants.
Pay attention to what's actually happening in the real economy, not just what the models say should happen.