The sudden change in tariff policy has led to a short-term market recovery, but structural pressures remain! The strategic game behind the trade war: a meticulously designed ambush!

The sudden change in tariff policy has led to a short-term market recovery, but structural pressures remain.
1. Policy shift
   - The U.S. suddenly paused the tariff increase on allies (retaining 10%), but maintains a 125% tariff on China; auto tariffs (25%+10%) remain unchanged. Please see: The Deep Logic and Market Impact of Trump's New Tariff Policy
Just like the viewpoint in the daily report on April 3: The dramatic shift in Trump's tariff policy confirms the previous judgment—that the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" are merely bluster, and only a 10% baseline tariff reflects the true intention. This hasty policy reversal, neglecting even basic diplomatic etiquette, precisely exposes the arbitrariness of its trade policy. Even retaining a 124% tariff on China (even misquoted by Trump as 125%) merely continues the existing policy without substantive escalation.
In this trade game, China was well prepared in advance. When the U.S. launched its offensive, it had already fallen into the pre-set strategic layout. With a rigorous response strategy, China has put the U.S. in a dilemma. Now the U.S. has to pay the price for its hasty decision—its international credibility is damaged, and it has exposed the limitations of its policy deterrent.
It's worth noting that the U.S. originally believed that a 10% tariff would achieve its goals, but China clearly will not stop there. This game is far from over, and the subsequent developments will be more profound. The current situation fully illustrates: in the face of a meticulously prepared strategy, blusterous tactics will ultimately prove futile.
2. Market response
   - Risk assets rebound (U.S. stocks ↑, VIX ↓), recession fears temporarily ease, but auto tariffs may continue to boost inflation.
3. Subsequent impacts
   - May data is distorted; inflation pressure may be more evident from June, and the Federal Reserve is still watching.
4. Capital patterns
   - Short-term funds drive a rebound, while long-term funds remain inactive, indicating that the market has not genuinely strengthened.
5. Conclusion
   - Emotional repair rebound, non-trend reversal, high tariff areas (such as autos) still carry inflation risks.
The strategic game behind the trade war: a meticulously designed ambush.
Strategic situation reversal
China has dragged the U.S. into a pre-set battlefield with precise predictions and systematic plans.
Countermeasures are quick and decisive, refusing traditional negotiation models, demonstrating strategic confidence.
Comparison of economic strength
According to purchasing power parity, China's economic scale has reached 1.3 times that of the U.S.
The real capacity advantage of the manufacturing industry is obvious: the actual capacity of the U.S. is only 1/4 of that of China.
Crisis of the U.S. dollar system
Long-term "currency capability" leads to industrial hollowing out, with real competitiveness being seriously overestimated.
The trade war accelerates the exposure of the fragility of the U.S. dollar's credit foundation.
Strategic insights
The current situation is not a temporary response, but a result of long-term strategic layout.
Global supply chains and value chains are undergoing deep restructuring.
Digital assets (BTC) may become value anchors under the new order.
This contest exceeds the traditional scope of a trade war; it is essentially a strategic game for dominance over the global governance system. Through systematic strategic preparation, China has successfully transformed tactical trade frictions into strategic institutional competition. The U.S. dollar system faces not only short-term shocks but also deep-seated credit crises. During this paradigm shift, traditional valuation systems face reconstruction, and emerging value storage methods will seize historic opportunities.
BTC
Congratulations to partners who accurately entered around 75000 during the second exploration! At least 7000 points profit! The current H4 breakthrough at 81200 forms structural damage; a pullback near the gap at 80000 can continue to be followed up! The upper target is at 87100-88500! Risk: If the H4 unexpectedly closes below 80000, then wait again for positioning in the 76800-74600 range!
ETH
Those who didn't get washed out around 1430 yesterday can still profit from this rebound, with the gap at 1660-1680 fully filled! A breakthrough at 1639 damages the H4 structure; a pullback near the gap at 1570 can be followed up! Risk: If the H4 closes below 1570, continue to wait for positioning in the 1480-1385 area!
SOL
Partners who followed the daily report to enter around 105-101 yesterday have gained at least 15 points! The 120-122 in the chart hit precisely! A breakthrough at 113 forms structural damage to the H4; a pullback to 112-111 can be followed up! Prepare defenses at 107-102!
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