#Silver 🪙
$XAG Price Forecast: Peru Risks and a Crucial Technical Level
Silver remains one of the most dynamic assets to watch. The market is currently at a crossroads, with fundamental supply risks weighing on one side and key technical levels demanding confirmation from buyers on the other.
Silver is currently trading around $59.43 an ounce, with a gold-to-silver ratio of 69. Despite pulling back from its January all-time high of $121.62, the asset is still trading 50% higher than last year.
🌍 Why is Peru a priority?
16-17% of global production: Peru supplies nearly one in six ounces of the world’s silver.
Uncovered Shortage: Any prolonged disruption in the country poses a threat of a shortage that the physical market cannot quickly fill.
Market Sensitivity: Since the silver market is much smaller than the gold market, any news about the threat of supply has a high impact on the sentiment of traders.
📊 Technical picture: compression before a big move
On the charts, silver is inside a symmetrical triangle with a narrowing range and falling volumes:
Key resistance ($61.50): The price has fallen below this mark and cannot return it yet. Analysts note that the current consolidation is starting to resemble a bearish trend continuation triangle.
Support zone ($56–$58): The market is actively holding this level.
Momentum indicators: RSI (45) and Ultimate Oscillator (44) remain below the neutral line of 50, indicating the absence of a clear bullish momentum.
🚦 Possible scenarios in August
🟢 Bullish scenario
Condition: A confident closing break above $61.50 on high volumes.
Objectives: Return to the target range of $70–$75. CoinCodex's 1-month forecast indicates an expected price of $64.68.
🔴 Bearish scenario
Condition: Break and consolidate below the $56 support.
Objectives: Test the strong support zone at $47–$50 to "shake up" short-term investors before a new round of growth.