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A projection that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030 is realistically impossible, according to an analysis cited by Cointelegraph on August 15.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said in an interview that a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 is “mathematically impossible.”
As of 10:40 p.m., Bitcoin was trading at $62,976, up 0.55% from a day earlier, according to CoinMarketCap. To reach $1 million, the token would need to climb more than 15-fold from its current level.
Thielen estimated that such a move would require about $15 trillion of additional inflows over the next four years. That would amount to roughly 25% of the total value of the U.S. stock market. Over the past 15 years, about $1 trillion of inflows helped lift Bitcoin’s market capitalization to around $1 trillion. Driving the price materially higher from here would require capital in the trillions of dollars.
That is why 10x Research is less bullish than some of the market’s more optimistic forecasters. Their thesis is mathematically unrealistic once the scale of money required is taken into account.
Thielen also said Bitcoin may find it harder to deliver gains on the scale of past rallies as its market capitalization grows. With the asset now much larger, far more capital is needed to push prices higher. For that reason, he said, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to set a new all-time high next year. He added that even a return to $100,000 would be a significant achievement.

22% tax rate to apply to gains above 2.5 million won ($1,800)
“They scrapped the stock tax but are pushing ahead on crypto”
Koo Yun-cheol says government will proceed as scheduled for now
“It’s hard to understand why the government keeps insisting on pushing ahead first and fixing problems later, even when people are already pointing out flaws.”
That was the reaction of Hwang, a 32-year-old office worker and virtual-asset investor, in Seoul’s Yeouido district on August 14 after hearing Deputy Prime Minister Koo Yun-cheol say the government would implement the tax as planned and make adjustments if necessary.
“Even perfect preparation would not be enough,” Hwang said. “If the government plans to start taxing virtual assets and only fix problems afterward, that amounts to treating taxpayers like test subjects.”
Complaints are mounting, particularly among South Koreans in their 20s and 30s, who say taxing crypto while abolishing the financial investment income tax on stocks undermines parity across asset classes.
South Korea adopted the virtual-asset tax in late 2020, but enforcement has been postponed three times because of gaps in tax infrastructure and investor opposition. Frustration has resurfaced after the government recently reaffirmed plans to press ahead on schedule. Some lawmakers are calling for another delay or for the tax to be scrapped altogether.
◇ ‘Are Crypto Investors Easy Targets?’ Petitions Gain Traction
Starting January 1, 2027, income from the transfer or lending of virtual assets will be taxed as miscellaneous income under the Income Tax Act, according to the National Law Information Center.
A 22% tax rate will apply to annual virtual-asset income exceeding the 2.5 million won ($1,800) basic deduction. That consists of a 20% miscellaneous income tax and a 2% local income tax.
Kim, a 29-year-old investor, said the move looked driven by electoral calculations.
“When they moved to abolish the financial investment income tax, they were watching the 14 million retail stock investors,” Kim said. “But crypto has more than 10 million users and they’re pushing ahead anyway.”
“Crypto investors are younger and less organized, so they are seen as the easiest group to tax.”
Data released in March by the Financial Intelligence Unit showed there were 11.13 million user accounts eligible for trading as of the end of last year.
By age group, people in their 30s accounted for 26.8% of those accounts, while those in their 20s and younger made up 19.0%. Combined, they represented 45.8% of the total.
Another investor, Park, 36, said the policy amounts to discrimination between asset classes.
“Stocks get a pass while crypto is taxed, even though both generate investment income,” Park said. “There is also no loss carryforward. If I lost 50 million won ($36,000) last year and made 30 million won ($21,600) this year, I am still down 20 million won ($14,400), but I would still have to pay tax.”
“That’s not a tax on income. It’s a penalty on trading.”
Petitions opposing virtual-asset taxation have continued to appear on the National Assembly’s public petition platform.
In a petition posted on July 31, the petitioner said the government’s proposed crypto tax had completely lost the core tax principles of “fairness” and “effectiveness,” calling it punitive regulation.
The petitioner also argued that the government had supported the stock market through various policy measures and even expanded National Pension Service investment, while neglecting the virtual-asset market despite heavy losses suffered by most investors.
◇ Government Says It Still Plans to Start Taxing Crypto Next Year
The government says it will proceed without any further delay.
Speaking at the National Assembly’s Strategy and Finance Committee on July 29, Koo said the government was, for now, moving ahead with taxation from next year as scheduled.
On the issue of loss carryforwards, Koo said stock investment losses also cannot be carried forward. He added that classifying crypto income as miscellaneous income already provides certain benefits, and that the government could revisit the issue after implementation if necessary.
The National Assembly Research Service has also raised concerns that full-scale taxation could lead to legal disputes.
According to political sources, the legislative research body pointed to the need for more detailed tax standards for newer forms of acquisition such as staking and airdrops, the lack of loss carryforwards, and the possibility of double taxation on income from overseas exchanges.
Calls to delay or repeal the tax have also continued within the People Power Party.
Lawmaker Song Eon-seok said at a blockchain event on July 22 that a quick decision was needed on whether to delay or abolish the tax. Scrapping the income tax could provide momentum for further industry growth, he said.
Lawmaker Park Soo-young told reporters on August 3 that he had consistently opposed taxation of digital assets and that a strong response was again needed.
Lawmaker Jeong Seong-guk has introduced an amendment to the Income Tax Act that would delay the tax by three years.
A National Tax Service official said the agency was moving ahead without disruption in securing data through its systems and institutions in time for enforcement.
Addressing concerns that assets moved to overseas exchanges would be harder to trace, the official said cross-border crypto-asset information would begin to be exchanged next year through the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, or CARF.
If foreign tax authorities obtain exchange data in their jurisdictions, that information can be shared with South Korea, the official said. The country is gradually building a framework to secure data from overseas exchanges.
Lee Jeong-woo, Hankyung.com reporter krse9059@hankyung.com

Skepticism is rising over the Clarity Act's chances of passing this year, a key issue for the digital-asset industry in 2026.
Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn cut the probability of the bill's passage this year to 10%, Cointelegraph reported on August 15, citing a post on X.
Thorn said the U.S. Senate would have only a two- to three-week window to act on the bill after reconvening on September 14. If lawmakers do not move quickly to a procedural vote once they return to Washington, the measure would effectively need to consume the rest of the session to pass.
Disagreements remain among politicians and the financial industry over the legislation. The main sticking points include ethics rules to limit digital-asset-related conflicts of interest for government officials, whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay rewards or interest, and provisions protecting developers.
Galaxy has repeatedly lowered its estimate for the bill's odds of passing this year. It projected a 75% chance on May 22, cut that to 60% on June 6 and 50% on June 26, and has now lowered the figure to 10%.

XRP whale investors may be accumulating the token as deposits to Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, have fallen to their lowest level since 2021.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote on Aug. 15 that the three-month average of XRP inflows from whale investors to Binance had dropped to $61 million, the lowest level since 2021.
The slowdown is more striking compared with last year. A chart shared by Darkfost showed XRP whale inflows to exchanges exceeded $450 million last year.
A decline in whale deposits to exchanges is generally interpreted as a sign that potential selling pressure is easing.
Still, lower exchange inflows alone do not confirm whether whales are actually selling or where prices may head next, Darkfost said. He added that declining exchange inflows and trading volume across the broader market suggest selling pressure is being exhausted, but demand strong enough to absorb that supply has yet to recover sufficiently.

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net outflows for a third straight trading day.
The 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US recorded combined net outflows of $57.63 million on Aug. 14, according to final data from SoSoValue.
BlackRock's IBIT accounted for most of the withdrawals, with $55.51 million leaving the fund in a single day. Fidelity's FBTC posted net outflows of $6.84 million, while Hashdex's DEFI saw $1.42 million in outflows.
By contrast, Bitwise's BITB recorded net inflows of $6.14 million, the only fund to attract fresh money that day. Most of the remaining major ETFs, including Grayscale's GBTC and BTC, ARK Invest's ARKB, VanEck's HODL and Morgan Stanley's MSBT, saw no fund flows.

World Liberty Financial, the crypto project tied to U.S. President Donald Trump, has received conditional approval to establish a national trust bank.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency sent a preliminary conditional approval letter to World Liberty Trust Company National Association, a WLF unit, The Block reported on August 14. In the letter, the OCC said it granted preliminary conditional approval for the charter application after determining the proposal met certain regulatory and policy requirements.
WLF set up a separate trust entity earlier this year to obtain an OCC bank charter. If it secures final approval, the company would be able to offer stablecoin issuance and redemption, fiat conversion services, and custody and conversion operations. WLF currently issues USD1, a stablecoin with a market capitalization of $4 billion. It is the fourth-largest stablecoin after Tether's USDT and USD Coin's USDC.
Chief Executive Officer Jack Witkoff wrote in a post on X that the company aims to build the world's most trusted and widely used digital dollar while reinforcing the U.S. dollar's standing in the global economy. Witkoff is the son of Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy.
The conditional approval is not a final charter. Other crypto firms, including Coinbase, Paxos, BitGo, Ripple and Circle, have also received conditional approvals from the OCC over the past year.
Still, WLF's close ties to the Trump administration have drawn concern from Democratic lawmakers. Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Comptroller Gould in January calling for the review to be halted until Trump divests his stake in WLF and resolves the conflict of interest. If the charter is approved, she wrote, the agency would be in a position to write rules affecting the profitability of a company tied to the president while also directly supervising and enforcing laws against that company and its competitors.

President Donald Trump said the US will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz to be American territory.
Speaking at a police academy on Long Island, New York, on August 14, Trump said the move would come after the US “completely defeats” Iran, the Guardian reported. He added that the US is already effectively blockading the strait and that no ship can pass through without the US government’s permission.
Iran responded immediately. Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, wrote on X that Tehran would not yield to US threats or shows of force. He added that decisions on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed fall entirely under Iran’s sovereign authority.
As the war drags on, global oil prices have surged, fueling voter frustration in the US as gasoline prices approach $4 a gallon. Trump brushed off the criticism, saying the action was intended to prevent Iran — which he called the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism — from acquiring nuclear weapons. He said he would not apologize even if gasoline prices rose a little further and insisted he had done the right thing.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Aug. 14 as mounting concerns over a slowdown in consumer spending weighed on sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 107.58 points, or 0.2%, to 53,732.41 on the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 dropped 13.23 points, or 0.17%, to 7,785.76, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 73.86 points, or 0.28%, to 26,729.16.
Economic data released that day added to worries about consumer demand.
U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July from the previous month, the biggest decline in one year and two months since a 1.1% drop in May 2025. The figure was far weaker than economists' forecast for a 0.1% increase.
Consumer sentiment, which had improved for two straight months, also fell for the first time in three months.
Oil prices rose again as geopolitical risks came back into focus after a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Brent crude for October settlement, the global benchmark, rose 1.67% to close at $88.52 on ICE Futures Europe in London. West Texas Intermediate for September delivery gained 1.45% to settle at $82.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
U.S. Treasury yields also moved higher. The 10-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.69%, while the 30-year yield climbed 6 basis points to 5.27%. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.2%.
Even so, expectations for another rate increase changed little.
CME FedWatch showed the federal funds futures market raised the probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at next month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting to 67.6% from 66.1% a day earlier. The odds of a rate increase slipped to 32.4% from 33.9%.
Most technology stocks traded lower.
Broadcom and Intel fell 5.94% and 1.97%, respectively, as investors took profits in artificial intelligence-related shares. Applied Materials also dropped 5.12% despite posting strong earnings that day.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slipped 0.31%.
Sandisk, which surged more than 13% a day earlier after announcing a shareholder return policy, rose another 7.39% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock. SK Hynix's American depositary receipt gained 0.4%.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the world’s largest investment bank, increased its holdings of exchange-traded funds tied to digital assets.
Cointelegraph reported on August 14 that a Form 13F filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission showed JPMorgan held about 10.4 million shares of BlackRock’s spot-Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, as of the end of June. That was up about 25% from 8.3 million shares in the previous quarter. The stake was valued at $356 million.
Its Ethereum ETF holdings rose even more sharply. JPMorgan’s position in BlackRock’s spot-Ethereum ETF, ETHA, climbed to about 1.17 million shares in the second quarter from about 267,000 shares in the first quarter, an increase of more than fourfold.
Investment products tied to XRP were also newly added to the portfolio. JPMorgan reported holding 181 shares of Grayscale’s XRP investment product and 113 shares of Bitwise’s XRP ETF in the second quarter. It held neither product in the first quarter.
Still, the increase in holdings does not necessarily mean JPMorgan is betting on higher digital-asset prices. Jonathan Landyn, chief market analyst at PrimeXBT, said 13F filings can include client trades and assets held across multiple divisions within an institution. Those disclosures do not show a view on the future direction of a specific market.

Interest in altcoins is dropping sharply as the digital-asset market remains weak, Bloomberg reported. As a result, a string of exchange-traded fund plans tied to altcoins that had been scheduled for launch this year have been withdrawn.
Bloomberg reported on Aug. 14 that Grayscale recently pulled plans to launch ETFs based on Cardano's ADA, Polkadot's DOT and Hedera's HBAR. Bitcoin has fallen 28% this year, while an altcoin index has dropped more than 40%. Major altcoins including Dogecoin, Solana and Cardano have each fallen about 50% from their highs.
"Even if there is some investor interest in smaller tokens, demand must be strong enough to cover the cost of launching and maintaining an ETF," Roxanna Islam, head of research at VettaFi, said. With the broader market in a downturn, there is less incentive to launch ETFs tied to smaller altcoins.
Demand for altcoins is also weakening as retail investors shift their attention to artificial intelligence-related investments, sports betting and prediction markets. "Interest in some smaller altcoins is declining," David Tawil, co-founder of ProChain Capital, said. Even when demand exists, investors selecting ETFs are likely to prefer larger, better-known asset managers.

Strategy, the listed company with the world's largest Bitcoin holdings, has pushed back against MSCI's proposed revision to its index exclusion criteria.
In a post on X on August 14, the company said "digital assets are assets" and that an index provider's role is to measure markets, not decide which assets companies can hold.
It added that MSCI's proposal is out of step with regulators, the market and the index provider's own clients. "Bitcoin does not need MSCI, and neither does Strategy," the company wrote.
MSCI is considering a plan to classify companies that place greater emphasis on asset accumulation than on actual business operations as "non-operating companies" and remove them from its indexes. Strategy and Metaplanet, a Japanese corporate Bitcoin treasury company, are among the candidates for exclusion.

Bitcoin whales have accumulated large amounts of the cryptocurrency over the past two months. Even so, Bitcoin remains stuck in its recent trading range.
On August 14, CryptoQuant contributor Woo Min-kyu wrote that whales holding more than 100 BTC had bought about 54,400 additional Bitcoin since June 14.
Smaller investors moved the other way. Over the same period, holders with less than 100 BTC sold about 27,400 Bitcoin, according to the report.
On-chain indicators, however, have yet to show a clear bullish reversal. The seven-day moving average of SOPR remains below 1, the threshold that indicates investors are selling Bitcoin at a loss.
Woo wrote that the whale accumulation signal that emerged in June remains valid, but has yet to confirm a clear upside breakout. He added that investors should watch whether SOPR rises and holds above 1 and whether Bitcoin breaks out of the $62,000 to $65,000 range.

South Korean lawmakers have revived bills to delay taxation of virtual assets ahead of the planned January start date, but the government is pressing ahead with preparations for implementation on schedule.
According to industry officials on Aug. 13, People Power Party lawmaker Kim Sang-hoon plans to propose an amendment to the Income Tax Act this month that would delay taxation of crypto investment income from January 2027 to January 2029. The bill is currently under review by the National Assembly Secretariat’s legislative office.
It is the second bill from the ruling party this week seeking to postpone crypto taxation. On Aug. 10, People Power Party lawmaker Jeong Seong-guk proposed a separate amendment to delay the start date to January 2030. He argued that taxes should be imposed only after investor protection measures and the taxation framework are fully in place.
Under current law, income from the transfer or lending of virtual assets will be taxed as miscellaneous income starting in January 2027. Annual gains exceeding 2.5 million won, or about $1,800, will be taxed at 22%, combining a 20% miscellaneous income tax and a 2% local income tax.
South Korea has already postponed crypto taxation three times. After the relevant tax system was introduced, the start date was pushed back to 2023, then 2025, and later 2027. Unless another delay bill passes the National Assembly this year, taxation will begin as scheduled on Jan. 1, 2027.
Government Presses Ahead With Preparations
The government, however, says there will be no further delay. Deputy Prime Minister Koo Yun-cheol, who also serves as finance minister, told the National Assembly’s Planning and Finance Committee late last month that the government would proceed with crypto taxation from January 2027 as planned. He added that the system would be implemented first and revised later if necessary.
The National Tax Service has also stepped up work on a public notice setting out taxation standards for digital assets. On Aug. 11, the agency’s Digital Asset Division was reported to have completed the formation of a 12-member advisory panel for the notice. The panel will hold its first meeting on Aug. 24 to begin discussions on the standards. The agency plans to release guidelines as early as October.
The notice will lay out methods for calculating acquisition costs and tax treatment for various types of digital-asset transactions, including staking, airdrops, hard forks and token swaps. The National Tax Service is also reviewing whether newer transaction types have emerged as it drafts more detailed standards.
Investors Complain About Tax Burden Amid Sluggish Market
Some crypto investors say a January 2027 rollout would further increase the burden on trading. Concerns have grown as the market has yet to show a clear recovery since the large-scale liquidation event in October 2025.
One investor, identified only as A, said most holdings were wiped out in the October 2025 liquidation wave and only the original principal has recently been recovered. Because South Korea does not allow loss carryforwards for crypto taxes, the investor said, taxes could still be due even without any real profit from coin trading.
A loss carryforward allows investment losses incurred in one year to be deducted from profits in later years when calculating taxes. The mechanism reflects cumulative gains and losses over multiple years. Under South Korea’s crypto tax system, gains and losses within the same tax year can be offset, but losses from a previous year cannot be carried forward to the next year. That means an investor who loses 10 million won, or about $7,200, in the first year and then earns 10 million won the following year, merely recovering the original principal, would still face tax on the second-year gain. In effect, tax could be imposed even when cumulative profit over two years is zero.
Some investors also argue that imposing taxes before establishing sufficient institutional safeguards for investor protection is premature. An investor identified as B said it was difficult to understand why the government would move forward with taxation before enacting a Digital Asset Basic Act. The investor said the purpose of delaying implementation until 2026 had been to buy time to improve related systems, and that starting taxation before investor protections are fully in place would be too early.
Still, others say implementation should now be accepted after repeated delays. A retail investor identified as C said it was regrettable that the financial investment income tax had been abolished while crypto taxation was repeatedly postponed, effectively creating a structure in which ordinary stock investors are not taxed while crypto investors alone face the levy. Even so, the investor said crypto taxation has already been delayed several times and the government appears determined to proceed. If authorities follow through on their pledge to revise the system after implementation, the investor added, shortcomings should be addressed.

The altcoin market remains highly selective, with buying concentrated in tokens backed by specific catalysts such as exchange listings and service updates. With no clear direction across the broader market, gains have struggled to spread beyond a narrow group of names.
Selective Altcoin Rally Continues as Listings, Service Updates Spur Sharp Gains
Of the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market value, a little more than 140 rose over the past week while a little more than 160 fell. Rather than moving in lockstep, the market has favored tokens with distinct catalysts such as listings and service updates.
APR posted the biggest gain over the past week, soaring 151%, according to CoinMarketCap data on Aug. 14. Other standout performers included VELVET, up 102%; CAP, up 92%; AKE, up 89.1%; BR, up 79.7%; and BTW, up 58.2%. ARC climbed 39.2%, CASHCAT gained 38.3%, and CYS advanced 33.7%.
Newly listed Upbit tokens also outperformed. CYS, a decentralized ComputeFi project, extended its rally after Upbit announced on Aug. 10 that it would support trading in BTC and USDT markets. CAP, an on-chain private credit project, rose 92% over the past week after trading began in KRW, BTC and USDT markets on Aug. 6.
Tokens supported by service developments and expanding token utility also gained. VELVET surged 102% over the past week. The token is part of the VelvetX ecosystem, which offers social trading features including copy trading. Curve DAO Token, or CRV, rose 14.9% after Curve Finance introduced CRV incentives for a new LlamaLend v2 gauge, boosting expectations for broader token use.
Among mid- and large-cap altcoins, PUMP rose 28.2%, ETHFI gained 17.8%, OKB advanced 16%, ATOM climbed 13.2%, WLD added 12%, and LINK increased 6.2%. Exchange and centralized-finance, or CeFi, tokens showed particular relative strength, with OKB leading the group. SoSoValue data showed the CeFi sector index rose 2.68% over the past seven days and 4.24% over the past month.
Sharp declines also hit parts of the market. BEAT plunged 67%, US dropped 64.3%, and KAITO sank 53.3% over the past week. KAITO also came under heavier selling pressure in derivatives markets as long liquidations increased and funding rates stayed in negative territory.
Broader Altcoin Upside Limited as Bitcoin’s Hold Above $60,000 Turns Critical
The broader digital-asset market remains trapped in a narrow range, leaving altcoins without a clear trend. Alex Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, said total crypto market capitalization has stayed near $2.19 trillion for a third straight day, extending the sideways pattern that has persisted since early June. Optimism around possible passage of the CLARITY Act, a digital-asset market structure bill, this fall is underpinning the medium-term outlook. The risk of a sharp pullback in the coming weeks, however, remains.
The prospect of further Bitcoin weakness is another key variable for altcoins. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said August and September are often weak months for Bitcoin in US midterm election years. Whether Bitcoin holds above $60,000 over the next 60 days or retests its prior lows could determine the market’s next phase. That also means Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $60,000 level may shape whether risk appetite returns to altcoins.
Institutional money is also concentrating in a limited group of highly liquid tokens. Wintermute said in its first-half over-the-counter trading report that institutions accounted for a record 72% of spot trading on its OTC desk. Notional altcoin options volume was about 3.4 times higher than in the second half of last year. At the same time, liquidity is concentrating in a handful of major tokens while the buying base for small- and mid-cap altcoins is weakening.
Even with broader market participation still limited, some on-chain ecosystems are fueling speculation about localized rotation trades. Crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe said on-chain activity and trading demand on Robinhood Chain have been rising, citing gains in related tokens including CASHCAT, HMM, ANSEM and PONS. If the risk appetite seen on Robinhood Chain spreads to other blockchain ecosystems, rotation into smaller altcoins could broaden, he added.
Until Bitcoin establishes a clearer direction around the $60,000 level, the market is more likely to see short-term rotation into tokens with specific catalysts — including listings, service updates and rising on-chain activity within individual ecosystems — rather than a broad-based altcoin rally.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io

Bitcoin remained stuck in the $63,000 range even as softer US inflation and lower oil prices fueled hopes of easing interest-rate pressure. Weak spot trading and a gap in demand have kept the token searching for direction. Analysts say expectations for a long-term bottom are building, but a cautious approach is warranted until Bitcoin reclaims $67,000.
As of 4:48 p.m. on August 14, Bitcoin was trading at $63,050 on Binance's USDT market, down about 1.30% from a day earlier. On Upbit, it was trading at about $64,100. The kimchi premium, which measures the price gap between overseas and South Korean exchanges, stood at negative 0.46%.
US Inflation and Oil Both Ease as Rate Pressure Cools
US inflation data came in softer than expected and international oil prices fell, helping global equities steady. The crypto market, by contrast, remained weak, indicating that hopes for lower rate pressure have yet to translate into clear buying demand.
The US producer price index for July, released on August 13, was unchanged from the previous month, below market expectations for a 0.2% increase. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% from a month earlier, also below forecasts for 0.3%. July consumer prices, released earlier, rose 0.1% from the prior month, matching estimates and easing some concern about a renewed pickup in inflation.
Lower oil prices also supported sentiment. Despite the continuing US-Iran war, markets focused more on the prospect of slowing crude demand, pushing Brent down more than 2% intraday to around $87 a barrel. As inflation pressure eased, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.64%, while the two-year yield slipped to 4.15%.
CME FedWatch showed the rates futures market raising the probability of a Federal Reserve hold in September to 67.6% on August 14 from 59.4% a day earlier. Still, markets will continue to test whether softer inflation can materially ease rate pressure, with geopolitical uncertainty tied to the US-Iran war and concerns over the US fiscal deficit keeping long-term yields elevated.
Bitcoin Spot Volume Falls to Lowest Since 2019 as Demand Gap Persists
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net inflows of $865.3 million in the week of August 3-7, but flows have swung back to net outflows this week. Supportive policy and supply-demand expectations have nevertheless held up after Strategy said it would resume buying Bitcoin by year-end and news emerged that the White House is focusing on advancing the CLARITY Act, a digital-asset market structure bill, next month.
Selling pressure in Bitcoin has eased recently, but new demand has yet to fill the gap. Glassnode said in a weekly report that Bitcoin spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, while the token is finding support around $63,000 and facing resistance near $68,700, the average cost basis of recent buyers.
Measures of seller exhaustion are approaching levels seen near past bear-market bottoms. But with ETF inflows and spot trading still weak, leverage is building first, raising the risk of wider volatility.
On-chain data suggests investors who bought near the highs have been cutting losses, while accumulation by large holders has continued. Bitfinex said long-term Bitcoin holders recorded their first weekly decline in holdings this year, with balances down by about 210,000 Bitcoin from the peak on July 29. It said that move was closer to loss realization by investors who entered near cycle highs between October last year and March this year.
Investors who have held Bitcoin for years are not the main sellers. Wallets holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin rose to 3.06 million Bitcoin, the highest level this year, Bitfinex said.
Retail fatigue is also becoming more evident. Santiment said phrases such as "crypto is over" are appearing more often on X, formerly Twitter, as well as Reddit and Telegram. The longer prices remain stuck, the more investors appear to interpret weakness as market failure.
If that pessimism deepens while Bitcoin holds key price levels and selling pressure fades, conditions could instead become more favorable for bottom-fishing demand, Santiment added.
Bitcoin Tests Direction Near $64,000 as Analysts Eye Long-Term Bottom
Analysts say it is premature to call a rebound before Bitcoin regains $67,000 and that the market first needs to confirm support at $63,000.
Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has hovered near $2.19 trillion for a third straight day, extending the range-bound pattern in place since early June. The risk of a sharp short-term drop remains, he said, but long-term investors are still accumulating near the 200-week moving average of about $63,980.
Further downside, as in late 2022, could still offer lower entry points. But he added that it is hard to treat that as the baseline scenario and simply wait for it.
Coinbase Research identified $63,000 and $58,000 to $59,000 as major support levels for Bitcoin, with resistance at $67,000, $69,000 and $71,000. Holding above $67,000 would raise the odds of a retest of $71,000, while a break below $63,000 could trigger a pullback toward the $58,000 range.
If support in the $58,000 to $59,000 band also gives way, the decline could deepen further.
Some analysts also see Bitcoin's longer-term downtrend as nearing its final stages. Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, said Bitcoin has entered a phase where its long-term downtrend is becoming exhausted across multiple time frames. On the monthly chart, it has also reached a clearly oversold condition, increasing the chances of a long-term bottom.
Long-term momentum indicators are improving, and price holding near historically important support levels also matters for market psychology, Stockton said. She added that because Bitcoin has been pressured more heavily than gold, technical signals pointing to a long-term bottom are showing up more clearly.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io

Bitcoin’s volatility may be poised to increase soon, according to a market analysis, as the average directional index, or ADX, has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years. The drop suggests the prolonged period of range-bound trading may be nearing an end.
On Aug. 14, digital-asset analyst Darkfost wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that Bitcoin’s ADX had reached its lowest level in more than two years. He said that was another indicator that volatility could expand again soon.
ADX measures the strength of a trend rather than the direction of price moves. A low reading indicates the market has been trading sideways without a clear trend.
Darkfost said Bitcoin has already spent a considerable amount of time trading within its current price range. That, he wrote, increases the chances the cryptocurrency will soon move decisively in one direction.
He added that multiple indicators are pointing to the same conclusion. After months of subdued market activity, he said, investors should watch Bitcoin’s next move closely.

People Power Party lawmaker Park Soo-young called for South Korea to scrap its planned tax on virtual assets, arguing the measure is unfair because investors would not be allowed to carry forward losses.
In a video posted on his YouTube channel, "Park Soo-young's Economy TV," on Aug. 13, Park called for the government to "immediately withdraw the punitive tax plan that holds 13 million digital-asset users hostage."
Park contrasted the crypto tax with the repeal of the financial investment income tax and argued the two regimes were not being treated equally. "They abruptly scrapped the financial investment income tax in the name of reviving the domestic stock market, while slapping a punitive tax only on digital assets," he said. "That is little different from threatening people with a tax bomb if they do not invest in local stocks."
He also argued the tax would do little to steer money into South Korea's stock market and could instead accelerate outflows to overseas crypto markets. Rather than prompting investment in domestic equities, the policy would only speed the drain of national wealth overseas, he said. Park added that about 124 trillion won, or $89.9 billion, flowed to overseas crypto exchanges from January through September last year.
Park also pointed to the lack of a loss carryforward, which would allow investment losses to be deducted in a later tax period. "When coin prices collapse, investors cannot even carry those losses forward for deductions, yet the government is first in line to take a cut when there are gains," he said.
Under current law, taxation of income from virtual-asset investments is scheduled to begin on Jan. 1, 2027. The income will be taxed separately as other income, with an annual basic deduction of 2.5 million won, or about $1,810. Amounts above that threshold will be taxed at 20%, or 22% including local income tax.
The government has said it will proceed with crypto taxation as planned next year. Within the ruling People Power Party, calls have emerged to abolish the tax or delay it again.

A milder-than-expected increase in the U.S. consumer price index in July has strengthened the case for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious approach to monetary policy.
In an editorial published on August 12, The Wall Street Journal wrote that criticism of the Fed’s recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged had lost force after July CPI rose just 0.1% from the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%.
On a 12-month basis, core CPI rose 2.5%, down from 2.9% in May. Headline CPI was 3.4%, still above the Fed’s 2% target, but the Journal said the spring jump in prices was driven largely by higher energy costs linked to the war in Iran.
The Journal said the Fed’s decision to defer rate increases in June and July may ultimately have been appropriate because underlying inflation is easing. It also highlighted Warsh’s preference for reacting to actual price data rather than relying on forward guidance, or signaling policy moves in advance.
Still, slower inflation has not led to a clear improvement in how households feel about the economy. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.1% in July from a month earlier, and real income growth for many workers over the past year remained limited.
The Fed is set to review July and August inflation data at its September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. If inflation accelerates again, further tightening cannot be ruled out.
The Journal said Warsh will ultimately be judged on whether he restores price stability. If the recent disinflation trend continues, confidence in the Warsh Fed’s handling of monetary policy could also rise.

Major US stock indexes rose across the board as inflation pressures eased and oil prices fell, lifting the S&P 500 to a record closing high.
On Aug. 13, the S&P 500 gained 0.65% to 7,798.99 at the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.13% to 53,839.99, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.81% to 26,803.03.
The US producer price index for July was unchanged from the previous month, undershooting market expectations for a 0.2% increase. The consumer price index released earlier also slowed for a third straight month, easing some concerns about further interest-rate increases.
CME FedWatch showed the federal funds futures market pricing in a 67.6% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in September, up from 59.4% a day earlier.
Lower oil prices also supported investor sentiment. Brent crude for October delivery fell 2.15% to settle at $87.07 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate for September delivery dropped 2.43% to close at $81.25.
Technology stocks were also strong. SanDisk surged 13.7% and Micron Technology rose 4.2%. Meta gained 2.8% and Microsoft added 1.0%, while Nvidia and Tesla climbed 0.54% and 3.80%, respectively. SK Hynix American depositary receipts jumped 7.29%.
US Treasury yields fell as inflation worries eased. The 10-year Treasury yield declined about 5 basis points from the previous session to 4.64%, while the two-year yield fell about 5 basis points to 4.15%.

Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said she wants the Clarity Act to pass, while raising concerns about a provision that would allow some forms of stablecoin yield.
Fraser told Fox Business on August 13 that she had not given up on efforts to improve the bill and hopes a strong version will become law, according to crypto-focused outlet The Block. Passage of the legislation would be “very positive” for the broader system, she said.
The Clarity Act is awaiting a procedural vote in the Senate. A compromise crafted by Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks and Republican Senator Thom Tillis would ban yield payments on simple asset holdings while allowing returns tied to transactions and payments.
Fraser said that provision could affect bank deposits. If deposits develop yield-like structures, money could leave banks, weakening their ability to provide loans and credit in areas beyond the reach of crypto firms and large banks.
The banking industry is split on the measure. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has taken a hard line against the Clarity Act. In a May interview with Fox Business, Dimon criticized the bill and harshly attacked Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
Summer Mersinger, chief executive officer of the Blockchain Association, said the yield provision could become a flashpoint again if the Clarity Act passes the Senate and returns to the House. She added that yield-related issues were not discussed during the House review process. Republican senators also continue to face a choice between the traditional banking industry and the crypto sector.