LayerNFT

Halving Bitcoina to deflacyjny szok podaży, który historycznie prowadzi do znacznego wzrostu cen, chociaż jego wpływ ewoluuje w miarę dojrzewania rynku i przekształcania dynamiki cen przez instytucjonalne siły.
📊 Kluczowe wnioski: Ramy wpływu halvingu
Halving tworzy katalizator po stronie podaży poprzez trzy podstawowe mechanizmy:

katalizator po stronie podaży
🔍 Analiza historycznej wydajności halvingu

Poprzednie cykle halvingu: Wydajność cenowa :
*Szacowane na podstawie aktualnej trajektorii (lut 2026: 68,8 tys. $)
Kluczowe obserwacje:

Executive Summary
The February 10, 2026 launch of Fosun Wealth's FUSD stablecoin on Avalanche represents a strategic partnership with limited immediate price impact but significant long-term ecosystem potential. Despite the institutional-grade RWA-backed stablecoin announcement, AVAX price declined from $9.10 to $8.74 (-4.0%) in the 48 hours post-launch, driven primarily by broader market weakness and a scheduled token unlock. The ecosystem maintained stable TVL around $3.5-3.9B, while social sentiment remained bullish on long-term prospects despite short-term price pressures.
Immediate Price Impact Analysis
AVAX showed no positive price reaction to the FUSD launch announcement, continuing its downward trend amid broader market conditions:
AVAX Price Chart
$AVAX
OHLC price data for AVAX (2026-01-01 to 2026-02-11, interval=1d)
DateAVAX Price24h ChangeMarket ContextFeb 9$9.10-Pre-announcementFeb 10$9.05-0.5%Launch dayFeb 11$8.74-4.0%Post-launch
Key pressure factors overshadowing the announcement:
1.67M AVAX token unlock ($15.15M value, 0.32% of circulating supply) on February 11 BitcoinWorldBroader market decline: BTC -1.80%, ETH -3.86% on February 11 OdailyMacro headwinds: Strong jobs data reducing rate cut expectations
The minuscule initial FUSD circulation of ~$20,000 was insufficient to provide meaningful buying pressure or liquidity injection to offset these market forces. FinChain
Ecosystem Metrics Stability
Despite price volatility, Avalanche's core ecosystem metrics remained remarkably stable:
Avalanche Protocol Metrics
Filters: tvl, volume, fee
Key Ecosystem Metrics (30-day performance):
TVL: $3.5-3.9B range (minimal impact from announcement)Daily Transactions: Sustained volume with 1B+ cumulative C-chain transactions milestone XDeFi Activity: Consistent DEX volumes ($100-300M daily)Staking: $230-350M in ecosystem assets staked
The stability in these metrics suggests the FUSD launch hasn't yet materially affected ecosystem activity - consistent with the project's early stage.
$FDUSD
FUSD Implementation Details
Current Scale Limitations:
Circulation: Only ~$20,000 FUSD in circulation as of February 2026 FinChainBacking: Tokenized U.S. Treasury bills and compliant money market fundsYield Mechanism: Programmatic daily compounding from underlying assetsMulti-chain: Designed for interoperability but Avalanche C-chain as primary hub
Data Gap Note: Despite extensive searching, no official FUSD contract address has been published on Avalanche C-chain (chain_id=43114), suggesting either delayed deployment or limited initial transparency.
Social Sentiment and Market Perception
Twitter sentiment from credible sources shows optimistic long-term outlook despite muted short-term reaction:
Institutional Validation:
Avalanche official account: "Another institution on Avalanche" - highlighting strategic importance XCointelegraph coverage emphasizes institutional-grade design for regulated capital X
Community Perspective:
"RWA game just leveled up" - recognition of Avalanche's growing institutional adoption XFocus on Asian market access and yield-bearing characteristics as differentiators
Absence of Price Predictions: Notably, no credible sources made short-term AVAX price predictions based on the FUSD launch, focusing instead on ecosystem development.
Long-Term Ecosystem Impact Assessment
Potential Positive Drivers
1. Institutional Gateway: FUSD serves as a bridge for traditional financial assets from major institutions including:
BNY Mellon money market fundsChinaAMC fundsTaikang Asset Management products This could unlock "tens of billions of dollars in traditional financial channels" PR Newswire
2. Asian Market Expansion:
Fosun's strong Asian institutional connectionsComplementary to existing Avalanche Asian partnerships (Toyota, SMBC Bank, Mirae Asset, Woori Bank)Targets family offices, private equity funds, and pension funds
3. RWA Leadership Position: Avalanche now hosts multiple institutional RWA projects:
BlackRock BUIDLApollo ACREDJPMorgan and Citi involvement$1.2B+ on-chain TVL for quality RWA assets
Implementation Challenges
1. Scale Disparity: Current FUSD circulation (~$20k) is negligible compared to:
Avalanche's $3.5B+ TVLMajor stablecoins (USDC: $250M recent mint BitcoinWorld)Needs 1000x+ growth to become ecosystem-significant
2. Competitive Landscape:
Established stablecoin dominance (USDT, USDC)Multiple yield-bearing stablecoin attempts historicallyRegulatory uncertainty for cross-border RWA products
3. Execution Risk:
No visible contract deployment yetUncertain integration timeline with Avalanche DeFi ecosystemDependence on Fosun's Web2-to-Web3 transition capabilities
Risk Assessment
Risk FactorSeverityTimelineMitigation FactorsSlow AdoptionHigh6-12 monthsFosun's institutional network, yield advantageRegulatory ChallengesMedium12-24 monthsCompliance-first design, Asian focusCompetitionMediumOngoingFirst-mover in Asian yield-bearing stablesTechnical IntegrationLow3-6 monthsAvalanche's institution-ready architecture
Conclusion: Cautious Optimism with Delayed Impact
The FUSD launch represents a strategically important but tactically limited development for Avalanche:
Short-term (0-3 months): Negligible impact expected
Tiny initial scale prevents meaningful TVL/price effectsBroader market conditions dominate price actionToken unlock overhead creates selling pressure
Medium-term (3-12 months): Execution-dependent upside
Successful integration could bring $100M+ TVLAsian institutional adoption as key catalystRWA narrative development during next bull phase
Long-term (12+ months): Transformative potential
Trillion-dollar RWA market access pointInstitutional validation for Avalanche's infrastructureSustainable yield generation ecosystem
Investment Perspective: The FUSD announcement doesn't change near-term AVAX valuation fundamentals but significantly enhances Avalanche's strategic positioning for institutional RWA adoption. Patient investors should monitor FUSD's growth trajectory and actual ecosystem integration rather than expecting immediate price impact.
The real test will be whether Fosun can scale FUSD circulation beyond the current $20,000 to levels that materially contribute to Avalanche's TVL and transaction volume - likely requiring 100-1000x growth from current levels to become ecosystem-significant.

Source : asksurf.ai

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Podsumowanie wykonawcze
Standard ERC-8004 został uruchomiony na głównym łańcuchu Ethereum 29 stycznia 2026 roku, ustanawiając bezpieczną infrastrukturę dla tożsamości agentów AI, reputacji i walidacji. Chociaż uruchomienie stanowi znaczący postęp strukturalny dla ekosystemu AI Ethereum, krótkoterminowy wpływ na cenę był stłumiony z powodu technicznej niedźwiedziej tendencji i obniżonego sentymentu. ETH obecnie handluje po 2 025 USD przy warunkach technicznych wskazujących na wyprzedanie, chociaż wieloryby zgromadziły 1.3B USD wartości po ogłoszeniu. Korzyści dla szerszego ekosystemu są znaczne, z ponad 25 000 agentów już zarejestrowanych i głównymi projektami AI integrującymi standard, co pozycjonuje Ethereum jako neutralną warstwę rozliczeniową dla wschodzącej gospodarki agentów do agentów.

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