RecodeX

📡 整点播报 | 23:00-00:00

1. 美国最高法院裁定总统有权罢免行政官员，特朗普称取得重大胜利，可能影响加密货币和RWA监管机构。

2. 美联储理事库克捍卫央行独立性并欢迎最高法院裁决，特朗普则称将立即对其任职资格采取行动。

3. 2026年上半年加密行业招聘岗位数较2022年峰值暴跌超97%，仅剩2932个。

4. 币安因外部因素介入被迫撤回接近获批的希腊MiCA牌照申请，凸显欧洲监管挑战。

5. 企业AI投资激增，Gartner称2026年为AI项目与战略目标对齐的转折年，代理型AI被视为关键。

6. 阿曼外交大臣表示不支持对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，可能影响全球石油运输。

7. 法国与阿曼将合作清除霍尔木兹海峡水雷，地缘局势持续紧张。

8. 企业AI代理安全公司Straiker完成6400万美元A轮融资，总融资额达8500万美元。

📡 Daily News Roundup | June 29

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have sharply diverged amid multiple signals. There are tentative signs of a temporary easing in the Middle East geopolitical conflict; the U.S. and Iran have agreed to pause direct attacks and plan technical negotiations in Doha. However, the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and volatility in the energy market has intensified. In the cryptocurrency market, after Bitcoin fell below $59,000, it rebounded to above $60,000, but outflows from ETF funds have hit an all-time record. “Whale” investors are betting against the trend while “capitulation” signals coexist. The AI sector’s capital expenditure boom continues to heat up, yet both the Bank for International Settlements and Wall Street have issued bubble warnings, and technology stocks have faced record sell-offs by hedge funds. A-share and Hong Kong stocks rebounded, led by chip and innovative drug sectors, but overall sentiment remains cautious as investors wait for a policy turning-point signal in July.

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📊 Global Macros

1. China’s State Council executive meeting heard a report on AI development, stressing faster breakthroughs in key technologies and the building of ultra-large-scale intelligent computing clusters. It also reviewed and approved the “15th Five-Year Plan (15th Five-Year) Carbon Peak Action Plan,” sending a signal of strong policy support.

2. In January to May, China’s total social logistics volume reached 146.6 trillion yuan, up 5.2% year over year. New and old growth drivers are accelerating their transition; Cui Dongshu said that in January to May 2026, China’s share of the world’s auto market would be 31%.

3. The central bank used overnight reverse repo operations for the first time but did not disclose the interest rate. The market interpreted this as a tool for month-end liquidity management, aimed at managing expectations. The combined trading value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan for the 229th consecutive trading day.

4. The Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar to a near-40-year low, raising concerns about imported inflation. The market is wary that Japan’s authorities may intervene in the currency market. Japan’s government has drafted an economic blueprint, targeting more than 1% in actual annual growth by 2040.

5. A survey by Invesco found that 61% of central banks believe the U.S. debt level negatively affects the dollar’s status as a reserve currency, while 71% of central banks value “resilience” as much as returns.

6. Extreme heat in Europe has caused Germany to set new record highest temperatures for three consecutive days. The WHO recorded more than 1,300 cases of heat-related excess deaths. Europe’s winter natural gas storage is expected to fall to the lowest level in 15 years.

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💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin ETFs saw capital outflows of more than $4.1 billion in June, setting a record high. Bitcoin repeatedly struggled around the $60,000 mark. If it breaks below $56,539, $1.388 billion worth of long positions could be liquidated, leaving market sentiment fragile.

2. “Whales” bet against the trend: Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool, withdrew more than 91,000 ETH and 973 WBTC from Binance (about $160 million). Strategy launched a “digital credit capital framework,” covering bitcoin liquidation and two $1 billion (i.e., $1.0 billion) share repurchase plans.

3. Capitulation signals and accumulation coexist: 50,000 BTC were deposited to exchanges in a loss-making state. Meanwhile, Ethereum saw massive selling of nearly $900 million. Over the past 7 days, El Salvador accumulated 8 more bitcoins, bringing total holdings to 7,696.37 BTC.

4. BlackRock plans to integrate the stablecoin USDe into the Aladdin platform (managing $2.5 trillion in assets). Circle’s USDC became the first stablecoin supported on Bank of New York Mellon’s digital asset custody platform.

5. The European Banking Authority proposed fines of up to 12.5% of annual revenue for non-compliant major token issuers. Germany leads in MiCA crypto authorization competitions, with 244 companies already approved.

6. Singapore’s High Court ruled that Terraform Labs and Do Kwon must compensate UST collapse victims with more than $3 million. Loopring DEX announced it will shut down permanently and directly return all assets to users.

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🤖 AI & Technology

1. Musk announced internal testing of Grok 4.5, based on a 1.5-trillion-parameter model. Its performance is close to or exceeds Claude Opus. The plan is to release one new large model each month this year. DeepSeek launched an upgraded V4 version of DSpark, with inference speed up by 85%.

2. The Bank for International Settlements warned that the AI investment boom could trigger a bubble. If a capital expenditure surge of more than $1 trillion fails to meet expectations, it could quickly reverse. The five biggest tech giants’ AI capital expenditure-to-revenue ratio reached 27:1.

3. Baidu’s Kunlun chip plan to list in Hong Kong has an intended valuation of $50 billion, but reports say it requires customers to bind 3 to 7 times the subscription amount to purchase chip agreements, drawing market skepticism. Tencent is already one of its customers.

4. Google limited Meta’s use of Gemini due to insufficient computing power, exposing a core bottleneck in the AI industry. HP announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI to fully deploy the Frontier platform.

5. Sichuan and Suzhou have rolled out intensive AI industry policies: Sichuan focuses on eight major areas for provincial application scenarios, with funding support up to 20 million yuan. Suzhou aims to cluster more than 3,500 AI companies by year-end.

6. Stronger AI regulation from the White House is expected to drive the development of open-source models. Some U.S. parts have eased export restrictions for Anthropic. The State Administration of Radio and Television set tiered classification standards for AI micro-dramas, effective from July 1.

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🌍 Geopolitics

1. The U.S. and Iran agreed to pause reciprocal attacks and plan technical negotiations on the 30th in Qatar, but Iran’s military still restricts navigation routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump claimed a U.S.-Iran meeting will occur tomorrow; Iran denied it, and oil price volatility narrowed.

2. Iran announced it will impose full control over the Strait of Hormuz for the next 30 days, obstructing Iraqi oil exports. France and Oman announced joint demining cooperation, putting pressure on global energy markets.

3. The Ukrainian forces carried out long-range attacks on two Russian refineries inside Russia. Zelensky said it will continue to weaken Russia’s war capabilities. Putin suggested that both sides stop targeting the other’s deep-territory objectives, otherwise Russia would intensify its strikes.

4. Israel destroyed Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure in Lebanon. The Tel Aviv train station entered a security alert state due to bomb threats. Israel’s military approved continuing operations within the “security zone.”

5. China’s Ministry of Commerce will add 20 Japanese entities to an export control list, restricting key technology exports and intensifying trade tensions; Germany

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📡 8-hour Recap | Jun 29, 16:00-24:00

In the past 8 hours, the market has been choppy amid multiple signals: AI computing-power bottlenecks and a synchronized rise in semiconductor prices; crypto capital outflows hit a record, yet “big whales” are betting against the trend. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation (the U.S.-Iran talks, the Strait of Hormuz) continues to sway energy prices and risk-aversion sentiment. A-share and Hong Kong stocks rebounded, but U.S. tech stocks were sold by hedge funds; the market is now waiting for a policy inflection point in July.

Macroeconomics

1. The State Council’s executive meeting heard a report on AI development. It emphasized accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies and building ultra-large-scale intelligent computing clusters, and it also approved the “15th Five-Year Plan to Peak Carbon Emissions” action plan.

2. China’s Automotive Power Battery Innovation Alliance released an initiative titled “Proposal for Payment Terms Compliance for Power and Energy Storage Battery Enterprises.” CATL, EVE Energy, and others responded actively, calling for shorter payment cycles and promoting cash payments.

3. The yen weakened against the U.S. dollar to a nearly 40-year low, raising concerns about imported inflation. The market is wary that Japanese authorities may intervene in the market.

4. Stress in the San Andreas Fault in California reached a level seen at the turn of the millennium, increasing the risk of a major earthquake—though it did not directly impact the market.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin ETF flows saw outflows of more than $4.1 billion in June, setting a historical record. Bitcoin’s price repeatedly fought around the $60,000 level; if it falls below $56,539, it could trigger the liquidation of $1.3888 billion worth of long positions.

2. Whale moves against the trend: they bought 240 million PUMP tokens and purchased $17.068 million worth of SOL at an average price of $72.6, signaling large players are re-betting on meme coins and the Solana ecosystem.

3. Strategy launched a “Digital Credit Capital Framework,” involving Bitcoin monetization and two $1 billion share repurchase plans. However, last week it did not add to its Bitcoin holdings; total holdings remain 847,363 BTC.

4. BlackRock plans to integrate the stablecoin USDe into its Aladdin platform, which manages $2.5 trillion in assets. Circle’s USDC became the first supported stablecoin on the digital-asset custody platform of BNY Mellon Bank.

5. A Singapore High Court ruled that Terraform Labs and Do Kwon must compensate UST collapse victims with more than $3 million. Germany is leading an EU MiCA crypto authorization competition; 244 companies have already received approvals.

AI and Technology

1. Due to insufficient computing capacity, Google limited Meta’s use of Gemini, exposing a core bottleneck in the AI industry. DeepSeek API confirmed its price adjustment; during the V4 version peak period, prices doubled.

2. Musk announced that Grok 4.5 has begun internal testing. Its performance is comparable to Opus, and the company plans to release a new large model every month this year. Li Kaifu decided to give up on an AGI foundation model and instead pivot to a ToB business, then initiated preparations to list the company.

3. Baidu’s Kunlunxin plans to list in Hong Kong with a valuation of $50 billion. Tencent is reportedly already a client. However, it was disclosed that Kunlunxin requires clients to bind purchase agreements with subscription amounts ranging from 3 to 7 times, sparking market doubts.

4. Apple expects to release the iPhone 18 Pro series on September 8 and its first foldable-screen iPhone Ultra. Samsung plans to launch its first rollable-screen phone in 2028.

5. The White House is strengthening AI regulation, which is expected to boost the development of open-source models. Some parts of the U.S. have eased export restrictions on Anthropic, and AI regulation is entering a tiered phase.

Geopolitics

1. Trump claims that U.S.-Iran talks will be held tomorrow, but Iran denies it. The U.S. and Iran technical teams plan to hold talks “in the coming days” in Doha. Meanwhile, Iranian forces restrict navigation routes in the Strait of Hormuz. France and Oman announced joint mine-clearing cooperation.

2. Japan’s Ministry of Defense has set a policy direction for introducing AI systems into “command and control,” and it is considering acquiring “Maven Intelligent System” from U.S. firm Palantir.

3. For the first time, Ukraine included seized cryptocurrency assets in national custody and transferred them to an ARMA wallet, marking that digital assets have entered a national legal framework.

4. Business sentiment in Germany toward China is complex: there is concern about trade friction, yet it is difficult to give up the China market. Automakers such as Volkswagen face structural transformation pressure.

Stock Market and Financing

1. All three major A-share indexes closed higher collectively. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.16%, but trading value narrowed to 3.52 trillion yuan. Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly: the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3.23%, and Baidu climbed more than 5%.

2. U.S. tech stocks were broadly weaker. Last week, hedge funds sold U.S. information technology stocks at a scale that hit a record high. Morgan Stanley warned that the semiconductor sector may top out at least temporarily. Microsoft’s market cap fell by $570 billion, potentially its worst monthly performance since 2000.

3. U.S. IPO financing reached $251 billion in the first half of the year, a record high. The listing-driven boom for AI companies may continue. BlackRock’s data center platform AirTrunk plans to submit a REIT listing application in Singapore in a confidential manner, and its valuation could exceed $10 billion.

4. Xiaohongshu plans to submit its Hong Kong stock listing application in a confidential manner as well, aiming for a valuation above $70 billion, while also spending more than RMB 1.7 billion to secure World Cup broadcasting rights.

5. Forty-eight iOS developers in China reported Apple to the State Administration for Market Regulation, accusing it of abusing its dominant market position. The reason cited is that while Apple has opened lower-fee channels in Brazil, China is still locked into a single channel structure of 25%/12%.

Market Sentiment Summary: The market is caught in a game between a “policy waiting period” and “capital rebalancing.” AI computing-power bottlenecks and rising semiconductor prices support the tech main theme, but crypto capital outflows and the selloff in U.S. tech stocks suggest risk appetite is shrinking. Geopolitics (U.S.-Iran talks, the Strait of Hormuz) is becoming a short-term disruptive variable; investors should watch for policy inflection signals from the July FOMC and ZZJ meetings.

📡 Top-of-the-hour update | 22:00-23:00

1. U.S. envoy Witkoff and Kushner travel to Doha to meet with Qatar’s prime minister and Iranian officials regarding negotiations, while France and Oman announce joint mine-clearing cooperation in the Strait of Hormuz.

2. U.S. tech stocks overall weaken. Hedge funds sold U.S. information technology stocks last week at the largest scale ever recorded, and Morgan Stanley warns the semiconductor sector could be near a phase peak.

3. The yen falls against the U.S. dollar to its lowest level in nearly 40 years, raising concerns about imported inflation and adding pressure to Asian economies. The market is highly alert to the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities.

4. The U.S. Supreme Court rules it will not allow President Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, safeguarding central bank independence, while also refusing to hear a request for reconsideration of SEC policies now rescinded.

5. Bitcoin stabilizes near $60,000, but if it breaks below $56,539, it will trigger the liquidation of $1.388 billion in long positions. Strategy announces reforms to its financing model and may sell $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to replenish cash reserves.

6. Trip.com Group plans a full takeover offer for Dida Travel. It has support from key shareholders. The deal is not intended to take Dida Travel private; it will maintain Dida Travel’s listing status on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

7. The White House strengthens AI regulation, which is expected to drive the development of open-source models. Some U.S. export restrictions on Anthropic have been eased. AI regulation enters a tiered phase to balance safety and innovation.

8. Xiaohongshu plans to submit its Hong Kong stock listing application on a confidential basis. Its valuation target exceeds $70 billion, and it also spends over RMB 1.7 billion to secure the rights to broadcast the World Cup.

📡 Top-of-the-hour Update | 21:00-22:00

1. BlackRock plans to integrate the stablecoin USDe into its Aladdin investment platform for assets under management totaling $2.5 trillion, signaling a growing acceptance of digital assets among institutions.

2. DeepSeek API has confirmed the price adjustment: the V4 version will double in price during peak hours. Meanwhile, Kunlun Chip Technology plans to IPO at a $50 billion valuation, far exceeding the market value of its parent company, Baidu.

3. In the first half of the year, U.S. IPO financing reached a record $251 billion. The wave of AI company listings may continue, and Cantor Fitzgerald has raised price targets for multiple AI-related stocks.

4. Trump claims there will be a meeting between the U.S. and Iran tomorrow, but Iran denies it. At the same time, the U.S. made strategic missteps in the AI chip race—switching from export controls to allowing exports of H200 to China, and taking a 25% cut.

5. Forty-eight Chinese iOS developers report that, although Apple has opened a lower-rate channel in Brazil, China is still locked into a single-channel structure of 25%/12%. They have filed a complaint with China’s State Administration for Market Regulation, alleging Apple abuses its dominant market position.

6. The blockchain real-world asset tokenization platform 8090 has completed a $135 million Series A round, led by Salesforce Ventures. It predicts that market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket may become acquisition targets—or be merged—due to rapid growth.

7. Meta is developing a standalone app, Arena, driven by its forecast of rapid growth in prediction markets. The app uses virtual currency for betting. At the same time, Meta limits engineers’ use of Claude and Codex due to concerns about model distillation risk.

8. In the first-instance ruling of Suning.com’s lawsuit against Wanda Group over a contract dispute, Wanda Group must pay the remaining funds of 1.747 billion yuan and compensate for losses from delayed payments. Meanwhile, Shanghai Songjiang Wanda Plaza and Quanzhou Puxi Wanda Plaza have officially changed hands.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 20:00-21:00

1. Strategy launched the “Digital Credit Capital Framework,” involving Bitcoin liquidation and two $1 billion share repurchase plans. MSTR and STRC surged nearly 10% pre-market, but Bitcoin rose first and then fell again, dropping back below $60,000.

2. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of more than $4.1 billion in June, setting a record for the largest single-month capital outflow on record. Strategy did not add to its Bitcoin holdings last week; its total holdings remain at 847,363 BTC.

3. Baidu’s AI chip company, Kunlunxin, plans to list in Hong Kong with an estimated valuation of about $50 billion. Tencent has already become a customer, while ByteDance’s in-house CPU design is set to be completed by early next year, with mass production planned for the second half of 2027.

4. The European Council has given final approval to new regulations aimed at streamlining and simplifying certain AI rules—reducing companies’ administrative costs and strengthening digital sovereignty.

5. The technical teams of the U.S. and Iran plan to hold talks “in the coming days” in Doha. Trump’s son-in-law Kushner and U.S. envoy Witko ff will attend, aiming to advance diplomacy and influence energy markets.

6. Microsoft’s market value has evaporated by $57 billion, potentially its worst monthly performance since 2000. Large institutions in U.S. stocks are rebalancing ahead of quarter-end.

7. Circle’s USDC became the first supported stablecoin on Bank of New York Mellon’s digital asset custody platform, marking growing acceptance of crypto assets by traditional financial institutions.

8. A shooting in Stade, northern Germany, left five people dead; two suspects have been detained. A magnitude 4.3 earthquake struck Baicheng County in Aksu, Xinjiang.

📡 Hourly Update | 19:00-20:00

1. Li Qiang chairs a State Council executive meeting, hears a report on the development of artificial intelligence, emphasizes accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies and building ultra-large-scale intelligent computing clusters, and reviews and approves the “15th Five-Year Plan” carbon peaking action plan and the national health plan.

2. Trump says Iran has requested a meeting; talks will be held tomorrow (June 30) in Doha. Meanwhile, the Iranian military has restricted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, further heightening regional tensions.

3. For the first time, Ukraine has included seized cryptocurrency assets in state custody and transferred them to an ARMA wallet, marking the entry of digital assets into the national legal framework.

4. Germany leads in the EU MiCA crypto authorization competition. As many as 244 companies have already been approved in the EU and the European Economic Area, with France and the Netherlands also ranking among the major hubs.

5. Rocket Lab plans to acquire Iridium Communications for about $8 billion, aiming to build a space-industry giant with a full value chain spanning launches, satellite manufacturing, and services.

6. China’s robotics startup AI² Robotics raises about $736 million at an estimated valuation of about $2.9 billion. X Square Robot—supported by Alibaba—also secures financing at an estimated valuation of about $2.9 billion.

7. Several lithium battery anode-material companies plan to terminate planned and under-construction projects, as industry overcapacity is being cleared at an accelerating pace.

8. Samsung reportedly plans to launch its first rollable-screen smartphone in 2028. The tech industry will unify around an open 50W Qi wireless fast-charging standard.

📡 Hourly News Update | 18:00-19:00

1. Japan’s Ministry of Defense has set a policy to introduce an AI system for “command and control,” with particular focus on acquiring the “Mevein Intelligent System” from the U.S. company Palantir, and exploring options for combining it with Japan-made systems.

2. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said there are currently no plans this week for technical talks with the United States regarding a memorandum of understanding, hinting that the diplomatic process over the Iran nuclear issue may face obstacles and that geopolitical uncertainty will persist.

3. U.S. media company Comcast announced plans to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into two independent publicly listed companies through a tax-free separation, with the pre-market stock price surging by more than 16%.

4. Li Kaifu, founder of 01wanwu, looks back on the darkest moment of the past year, decides to give up on moving from an AGI foundation model toward a focus on ToB business, and launches a company IPO, positioning it as “China’s version of Palantir.”

5. Blackstone’s data center platform AirTrunk plans to file a REIT listing application in Singapore under a confidential route, aiming to raise about US$1.5 billion, or to become the largest-sized issuance in Singapore since 2017.

6. China’s National Committee for Disaster Reduction (National Fire and Flood Control Headquarters) launched a level-four emergency response to flood prevention at 18:00 for Anhui, Jiangxi, and Guizhou, and dispatched working groups to assist and guide flood prevention efforts.

7. Singapore’s High Court ruled that Terraform Labs and Do Kwon violated laws on unregistered securities due to misleading statements, and they are required to compensate victims of the UST collapse for more than US$3 million.

8. Doubao, an app under ByteDance, launched a built-in “light navigation” feature that supports voice prompts for both walking and cycling modes.

📡 Hourly Report | 17:00-18:00

1. The Fed Chair, Powell, pledges to push reforms and will, in the coming weeks, release details of a special task force focusing on five areas: communication, the investment portfolio, data sources, and more.

2. A “giant whale” bought SOL tokens worth $17.068 million at an average price of $72.6 per token, and conducted swing trading with 235,200 SOL. This suggests large investors continue to show strong confidence in the Solana ecosystem.

3. The State Council has issued the “15th Five-Year Plan” for Education Development. It proposes that by 2030, a high-quality education system will be basically in place, while expanding the scope of the “Double First-Class” program and adding more than 100,000 undergraduate admissions.

4. Baidu’s Kunlunxin plans to go public with a $50 billion valuation, but reports say it requires customers to bind Chip agreements by subscribing 3x to 7x the amount—sparking market doubts.

5. The Bank for International Settlements warns that stablecoin functions are more like ETFs rather than real currencies. After Binance’s delisting, the EU has intensified scrutiny of MiCA violations, and BTC has once again failed to hold the $60,000 level.

6. U.S. chip stocks rose broadly in pre-market trading, with Qualcomm up 2.16%. Innovative drug stocks surged as well—possibly due to funds rotating out of AI-related areas and rebalancing flows back from pharmaceutical funds.

7. UK venture capital firm Osney Capital has completed a €69 million cybersecurity seed fund. UK commercial banks have deployed over €600 million to support later-stage technology startups.

8. Data center operator AirTrunk is close to submitting an IPO application in Singapore, with a valuation that may exceed $10 billion. Solidion Technology announced it will buy SpaceX shares as reserve assets, surging 26.5% pre-market.

📡 Hourly News | 16:00-17:00

1. Google restricts Meta’s use of Gemini due to insufficient computing power, exposing the core bottleneck of the AI industry. Multiple Meta projects have been forced to be postponed.

2. Hong Kong stocks rebound strongly. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3.23%. Innovative drug and semiconductor sectors led the gains, with Baidu up more than 5%.

3. Iran’s president announced that $6 billion in frozen assets will be unfrozen, as tensions in the Middle East remain high. Israel continues its operations in the West Bank.

4. Musk announced that Grok 4.5 has started internal testing. Performance is said to match Opus, with plans to release a new large model every month this year.

5. China’s AI large-model API call volume has remained globally leading for nine consecutive weeks. The U.S. market share has fallen sharply from 72% to 33%.

6. Bitcoin ETF outflows exceeded $4.1 billion in June, setting a record. Bitcoin has been hovering around $60,000.

7. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports the release of the “Initiative on Standardizing Supplier Invoices Payment for Power and Energy Storage Battery Enterprises,” calling for shorter payment cycles and increased promotion of cash payments.

8. Apple is expected to release the iPhone 18 Pro series on September 8, along with its first foldable iPhone Ultra. Huawei’s Mate 90 series will be released in September.

📡 On-the-hour Briefing | 15:00-16:00

1. Nearly 20 global analog and power semiconductor companies will kick off a new round of price increases on July 1. Price hikes for AI server chips reach 15%-25%, reflecting a surge in AI data center demand alongside cost pressure converging.

2. South Korea announced a large-scale investment plan by Samsung and SK hynix, focusing on semiconductors and AI infrastructure. The market is optimistic, but it’s important to watch for the follow-up policy details.

3. All three major A-share indices closed higher together. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.16%. CRO/CMO-related concepts were active, with 124 stocks hitting the daily limit, but trading volume shrank, with turnover down to 3.52 trillion yuan.

4. The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released a proposal for “payment compliance standards for suppliers of power and energy storage battery enterprises,” with companies such as CATL and CALB actively responding.

5. Cryptocurrency market volatility: a “whale” bought 240 million PUMP tokens. Bitcoin mined a block for the first time using the Stratum V2 protocol, but analysts warn that the fundamentals of some altcoins remain thin.

6. After lying dormant for a year, the whale bought 242.66 million PUMP tokens again; however, its earlier SOL staked positions are still showing an unrealized loss of more than $1.7 million, suggesting that large holders are re-betting on Meme coins.

7. Most commodity futures rose. Coking coal and live hogs jumped more than 4%, but international gold prices have recently plunged without a reasonable rationale. The market is watching for a policy turning point at the July FOMC and the ZZJ meeting.

8. Beijing was the first to set up a consultative dialogue mechanism for the platform economy’s “moving from ‘cutthroat competition’ to benevolence.” Delivery platforms such as Meituan and JD.com have pledged measures to ease the burden on merchants, including optimizing subsidies and reducing fees to share benefits.

📡 8-hour Recap | Jun 29, 08:00-16:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed sharp divergence. Korea’s stock market plunged in panic after news of a massive investment plan by a chip giant, then rebounded strongly on expectations of AI data center investment. In China A-shares, chip and innovative drug sectors surged against the trend, but overall the market saw more than 3,700 stocks fall. In the crypto market, after Bitcoin broke below $59,000 it rebounded to above $60,000, but ongoing capital outflow pressure persisted. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. and Iran agreed to stop mutual attacks and plan negotiations, while oil-price volatility narrowed.

Macro Economy

1. A Shidur Survey shows 61% of central banks believe the U.S. debt level negatively affects the dollar’s status as a reserve currency, while 71% of central banks value “resilience” as much as returns.

2. For the first time, central banks used overnight reverse repo operations but did not disclose the interest rates. The market interpreted this as a month-end liquidity-management tool, aiming to guide expectations.

3. Trading value on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed 1.5 trillion yuan for the 229th consecutive trading day, and then broke above 2 trillion yuan. However, the ChiNext index fell by more than 2% and the Shanghai Composite fell below 4,000 points.

4. In June, A-share companies rolled out dividends in large numbers. Total cash dividends were nearly 570 billion yuan, with more than 1,700 companies implementing dividend plans—reflecting stabilization in operations.

5. The Japanese government has drafted an economic blueprint targeting more than 1% real annual growth by 2040. Cumulative investment by both public and private sectors will exceed 37 trillion yen.

Crypto Market

1. After Bitcoin fell below $59,000, it rebounded to above $60,000. But U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows last week, setting the second-largest daily net outflow on record, with capital having exited for seven straight weeks.

2. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes bought 6.16 million SYN tokens for $2.2 million, signaling confidence in the Syna ecosystem.

3. Loopring DEX announced a permanent shutdown, directly returning all assets to users. This marks a strategic shift.

4. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that stablecoin adoption in emerging markets may trigger “dollarization” risk, weakening local currency sovereignty.

5. In Dubai, there are 50 licensed crypto market entities. VARA approved a real-world asset tokenization platform, Tribe Tokenisation, advancing the integration of traditional finance and DeFi.

AI Technology

1. Musk announced that Grok 4.5 is under private testing within SpaceX and Tesla, based on a 1.5 trillion-parameter model, with performance approaching or exceeding Claude Opus.

2. Hewlett-Packard announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI. It will fully deploy the Frontier platform across its global business to enhance customer experience and optimize internal operations.

3. Samsung and SK Group in South Korea revealed large-scale investment plans. Samsung will accelerate chip capacity expansion, while SK will invest 100 trillion won to build AI data centers, helping the KOSPI index erase early-session losses of around 3%.

4. ByteDance’s Doubao launched a professional subscription service at 68 yuan per month, reflecting the industry’s collective predicament as domestic AI shifts from free expansion toward tiered monetization.

5. The BIS warned that an AI bubble burst and opaque financing are core risks to the global financial system. The ratio of AI capital expenditures to revenue among five major tech giants is 27:1.

Geopolitics

1. The U.S. and Iran agreed to stop mutual attacks and plan technical talks on the 30th in Qatar. Oil price gains narrowed; Brent crude briefly rose 1.9% before pulling back.

2. China’s Ministry of Commerce will list 20 Japanese entities under export controls, restricting the export of key technologies and escalating trade tensions.

3. A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck Gaoxian County in Yibin, Sichuan. As of 6:00 a.m., it caused 13 minor injuries. 225 people were urgently relocated, and a Level-III emergency response was initiated.

4. European winter natural gas inventories are expected to fall to the lowest level in 15 years due to the Middle East war cutting off transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, and companies may face upward pressure on prices.

5. Indonesia will implement new nickel-ore policies in 2026, sharply reducing mining quotas, raising the benchmark price and taxes/fees. This drove gains in Shanghai nickel futures, putting cost pressure on China-funded enterprises.

Stocks & Commodities

1. South Korea’s KOSPI index briefly plunged more than 3%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the declines due to worries about the massive investment plan and global economic uncertainty. The KOSDAQ triggered the circuit breaker mechanism.

2. A-shares’ chip industry chain opened strong. The STAR Market chip-design ETF’s underlying index jumped by more than 3%. Apple is seeking to source memory chips from Changxin Memory.

3. The innovative drug sector surged against the trend. Nearly ten stocks including Hainan Haiyao and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical hit the daily limit-up. Innovent/Hengrui Pharmaceutical rose more than 8%, and Hong Kong innovative drug concepts rose in tandem.

4. Spot gold fell more than 1% intraday to $4,040 per ounce, influenced by the macro environment. The CSI 1000 index futures main contract dropped more than 2%.

5. Foreign investors net sold South Korea’s KOSPI stocks on Monday worth 77 billion won, the largest single-day net selling amount on record.

Summary: Overall market sentiment is cautious. Easing geopolitical tensions and the AI investment boom provide some offset, but capital outflow and macro uncertainty continue to suppress risk appetite. Watch the progress of U.S.-Iran talks and central bank policy signals.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 14:00-15:00

1. The China Meteorological Administration’s Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue alert for heavy rain and severe convective weather. The China Meteorological Administration activated a Level-IV emergency response, with multiple regions experiencing heavy to torrential rainfall.

2. Samsung and SK Group of South Korea announced large-scale investment plans. Samsung will accelerate the expansion of its chip production capacity, while SK will invest 100 trillion won to build AI data centers, helping the KOSPI index erase an early 3% drop.

3. Trading turnover on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges surpassed 3 trillion yuan. After midday, China’s A-share semiconductor sector strengthened. Zhaoyi Innovation neared the daily limit-up, and turnover exceeded 40 billion yuan, hitting a new record high.

4. Foreign investors net sold South Korean KOSPI stocks worth 77,000 billion won on Monday, the largest single-day net sell-off on record.

5. Test centers in South Korea urgently banned AI glasses after controversy arose from an influencer reportedly completing a high school entrance exam mock paper in 18 minutes using AI glasses.

6. Baidu released its end-to-end OCR model “Unlimited OCR” as open source, topping all four rankings on Hugging Face and GitHub.

7. The open standard system for the Space Operating System and the TianSuan Star constellation’s Beijing and Hefei ground stations were officially launched, promoting the development of a space computing power network.

8. GeLongHui founder Dr. GeLong praised the AI revolution as the first technological revolution, saying it will fundamentally overturn the production relationship and the way civilization evolves.

📡 Top of the Hour Update | 13:00-14:00

1. The South Korean government has announced a large-scale investment plan to build four semiconductor fabs in the southwest (investment of about 800 trillion KRW), and plans to invest more than 1,000 trillion KRW in AI data centers by 2035. Samsung and SK hynix will each build two new plants, with DRAM production capacity doubling within five years.

2. The central bank used overnight reverse repo operations for the first time, but did not disclose the interest rate. Market participants interpret this as the central bank intending to manage expectations and prevent policy signals from being over-interpreted, positioning it as a month-end liquidity management tool.

3. China A-shares’ broad consumer sector continued to rebound in the afternoon. Food and beverage, retail, and daily necessities & personal care showed strong performance. Dápéng Beverage hit the daily limit, helping sentiment recover.

4. Iran and the U.S. reached an agreement to stop recent attacks. Negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz issue will take place in Qatar on Tuesday. Oil prices rebounded to above $70, but companies such as Toyota are still affected by supply-chain risks.

5. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that the core risks to the global financial system are the bursting of the AI bubble and opaque financing. The ratio of AI capital expenditures to revenue for the five largest tech giants is 27:1, and demand depends on financing and bond issuance.

6. Spot gold fell by more than 1% intraday to $4,040 per ounce, influenced by the macro environment. The CSI 1000 index futures’ main contract dropped by more than 2%, and market volatility increased.

7. The second batch of in-orbit test results from the Lightzhou test spacecraft was released, covering areas such as space-precision inspection and reducing costs while improving efficiency for space missions. The test plan expects the prototype spacecraft to launch and dock with China’s space station in 2027.

📡 Top-of-the-hour news | 12:00-13:00

1. Hong Kong stocks midday close: the Hang Seng Index rose 2.12%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 3.68%. The pharmaceutical sector surged across the board, with innovative drug concepts leading the gains.

2. Putin said that Ukraine’s strikes cannot force Russia into passive negotiations, and confirmed that Russia and Ukraine have been in contact through multiple channels, with the Ukrainian side proposing new ideas.

3. Europe’s winter natural gas stockpiles are expected to fall to a 15-year low due to the Middle East war disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and companies may face upward pricing pressure.

4. An insider close to ByteDance responded that there is currently no intention to cooperate with Baidu’s Kunlun chip, refuting market rumors.

5. In Dubai, there are 50 licensed institutions in the crypto market. VARA approved the real-world asset tokenization platform Tribe Tokenisation, advancing the integration of traditional finance and DeFi.

6. Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force deployed shore-based anti-ship missile launcher systems on Minami Torishima, and plans to begin live-fire training starting in the next fiscal year.

7. Europe’s heatwave has driven a sharp surge in demand for China’s ice-making machines. There are currently 42,500 ice-making related companies in China, and in 2025 the number of registrations first surpassed 10,000.

8. Nvidia-backed data center operator Firmus will build an AI data center park in Indonesia, with the agreement value potentially reaching up to $30 billion over the first six years.

📡 On-the-hour News | 11:00-12:00

1. Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Tech Index surged more than 4% in the first half; the Hang Seng Index rose more than 2%. The innovative drug sector saw a strong breakout—Yaojie Ankang-B jumped more than 40%, lifting the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug ETF by 8%.

2. Bitcoin broke through the $60,000 mark, but DRAM’s high-leverage “whale” positions are only $2.7 away from the liquidation price. A $5.19 million long position faces the risk of being liquidated.

3. SpaceX, Musk’s company, will acquire Cursor developer Anysphere in an all-stock deal at a valuation of $60 billion. The four co-founders, born in the 2000s, have achieved financial freedom.

4. A magnitude-5.5 earthquake struck Gao County in Yibin, Sichuan. The Ministry of Water Resources has activated the water conservancy disaster-relief command and dispatch mechanism for earthquake response, and the Ministry of Natural Resources has initiated a Level III response to geological hazard prevention.

5. Shanghai autonomous driving startup Momenta is set to go to Hong Kong for an IPO, raising as much as $751.1 million. Anchor subscription is expected to include GIC, Fidelity International, Mercedes-Benz, BYD, and others.

6. The Japanese government has drafted an economic blueprint aiming for more than 1% real annual growth by 2040. The cumulative investment scale by the public and private sectors will exceed 370 trillion yen.

7. Indonesia will implement a new nickel-ore policy in 2026, significantly shrinking mining quotas, raising benchmark prices, and increasing taxes and fees. This has led to a rise in Shanghai nickel futures, putting Chinese enterprises under cost pressure.

8. Volkswagen plans to end its cooperation with Bosch in the autonomous driving field. After investing about €1.5 billion, the project failed to meet expectations.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 10:00-11:00

1. A-share chip industry chain opened strong with a significant jump. The STAR Market chip design ETF benchmark index surged more than 3%. Funds continued to flow in. Apple is seeking to purchase memory chips from CXMT (Tsinghua Unigroup’s subsidiary). Citigroup said this move will enhance its global position.

2. The innovative drug sector rose sharply against the trend. Nearly ten stocks, including Hainan Haiyao and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, hit the daily limit. Hengrui Medicine climbed more than 8%, while Hong Kong-listed innovative drug concepts also surged.

3. The total trading value on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed 1.5 trillion yuan for the 229th consecutive trading day. It then broke through 2 trillion yuan. However, the ChiNext Index fell more than 2%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped below 4,000 points, and more than 3,700 stocks across the market declined.

4. ZiBian (Ziqian) Robot completed its Series C financing round. Post-investment valuation exceeded 20 billion RMB. Xiaomi’s venture investment arm added capital in three consecutive rounds. Investors include more than 30 institutions such as China Mobile and Sequoia China.

5. Beijing Space Computing Innovation Center was officially unveiled. It focuses on key technologies such as spaceborne AI chips and space-based large models, promoting commercialization and real-world deployment of space computing.

6. China’s Ministry of Commerce included 20 Japanese entities on the export control list, restricting exports of key technologies and intensifying trade tensions.

7. France confirmed its first locally transmitted Ebola case. The patient returned from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but the risk of subsequent spread is considered extremely low. The heatwave has already caused more than 1,000 deaths, posing an even greater threat.

8. CCTV exposed deep-rooted fraud in mobile phone testing. Manufacturers manipulated results through a three-layer cheating scheme: specially tuned machines, firmware identification, and cloud-based remote control—now an industry “unwritten rule.”

📡 Top-of-the-hour Update | 09:00-10:00

1. A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck Gao County in Yibin, Sichuan. As of 6:00 a.m., it had left 13 people with minor injuries, and 225 people were urgently relocated. A Level III emergency response has been initiated, and production and operations at companies such as Wuliangye are running normally.

2. The STAR 50 Index has continued to surge, gaining more than 4% and hitting a record high. Sectors such as semiconductor chips, fluorochemical industry, and controllable nuclear fusion have led the rally.

3. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows last week that were the second-largest on record. Funds have also been withdrawn for seven straight weeks, indicating investors’ interest in crypto assets is waning.

4. Several banks have collectively tightened or suspended agency gold and precious metals trading services through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for individuals. China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have both explicitly stated they will shut down the business to prevent risks from fluctuations in gold prices.

5. Austria has proposed that the EU bring in the AI company Anthropic to respond to the U.S. restrictions on exporting advanced AI models. At the same time, Anthropic has been cut off from exporting its European models to the U.S. due to U.S. restrictions.

6. The death toll from a strong earthquake in Venezuela has risen to 1,450. China’s embassy in the country confirmed that eight Chinese citizens have died, and one person remains missing.

7. Peking University and DeepSeek jointly released a large-model inference acceleration framework called DSpark. The 15,000th unit of the general-purpose embodied robot from Zhiyuan went off the production line for mass production.

8. Samsung and SK Group plan to invest $1.3 trillion over 10 years to build out AI and semiconductors. However, the news failed to lift the stock price—both companies fell sharply at market open.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 08:00-09:00

1. The Korean KOSPI index fell more than 3% at one point. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the declines as the market grew concerned about massive investment plans and global economic uncertainty, triggering the KOSDAQ circuit breaker mechanism.

2. Hewlett-Packard announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI, planning to fully deploy the Frontier platform across its global operations to enhance customer experiences and optimize internal operations.

3. Zhi Ping, a humanoid intelligence company, completed nearly RMB 5 billion in financing, valuing it at over RMB 20 billion. It became the Greater Bay Area’s first humanoid AI unicorn with a valuation exceeding RMB 20 billion.

4. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes purchased 6.16 million SYN tokens for $2.2 million, showing his confidence in the Syna ecosystem and claiming that Hypercall may be able to challenge Deribit’s position.

5. The United States and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other. They will hold meetings this week in Doha, which is expected to ease tensions in the Middle East and affect global energy markets.

6. Loopring DEX announced its permanent closure, and will directly refund all assets to users—signaling a strategic shift.

7. The Bank for International Settlements warned that the widespread adoption of stablecoins in emerging markets may trigger “dollarization” risk, weakening local currency sovereignty.

8. A research report from China International Capital Corporation notes that AI-market momentum is showing signs of spreading. Watch for repricing in upstream areas of “selling shovels,” such as specific segments like minor metals and electronic fabric, among others.

📡 8-hour Recap | Jun 29 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets swung violently amid geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic pressure: Iran and the U.S. agreed to pause mutual attacks and plan to restart talks in Doha, but the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Bitcoin fell below $59,000, keeping the crypto market under sustained pressure. Funding in the AI sector is active, but Wall Street is warning about cracks in “AI trading.” Overall, the market is caught between risk-off positioning and a wait-and-see stance.

Macroeconomics

1. A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck Gao County in Yibin, Sichuan, at a depth of 6 km. China’s Earthquake Administration has launched a Level-3 emergency response, with no reports of major casualties.

2. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged a domestic fuel supply shortage and is considering a complete ban on diesel exports; gasoline inventories are down 4% year over year.

3. Europe is experiencing extreme heat. Germany has set new record highs for three consecutive days. The WHO said it has recorded more than 1,300 excess heat-related deaths.

4. An Invesco survey shows 61% of central banks believe the U.S. debt level negatively impacts the U.S. dollar’s reserve status, while 71% value “resilience” as much as returns.

5. In June, A-share companies issued dividends in dense clusters. The total cash payout is nearly RMB 570 billion, with more than 1,700 companies implementing dividend plans—reflecting a steadier operating trend.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin fell below 59,000 USDT, down 1.79% on the day. ETF inflows have turned to outflows, and the market is under pressure due to expectations for the Fed.

2. Bitcoin mining difficulty hit a historic high at 133.87 trillion, but crypto venture participation has fallen to a six-year low.

3. 2Q 2026 became the worst quarter on record for crypto hacking losses; two major attacks accounted for most of the stolen amount.

4. The European Banking Authority proposed fines of up to 12.5% of annual revenue for non-compliant major token issuers, and the new rules are set to take effect soon.

5. The Bank for International Settlements warned that stablecoins could split the global financial system and urged accelerating central bank digital currency (CBDC) development.

AI and Technology

1. Baidu’s AI chip division, Kunlun Xin, plans to list in Hong Kong. It targets a valuation of $50 billion and requires investors to commit to purchasing chips equivalent to 3 to 7 times the subscribed amount.

2. Musk announced that Grok 4.5 is being privately tested inside SpaceX and Tesla. Built on a 1.5 trillion-parameter model, its performance is close to or exceeds Claude Opus.

3. Google is reorganizing its AI coding tools team to accelerate automatic code generation; a team at University College London reconstructed a 10-second video clip for the first time using mouse brain activity.

4. Domestic AI short-drama production has surged. In the first quarter, about 128,000 episodes were launched, with AI accounting for over 95%, but traffic acquisition costs rose by more than 100% year over year.

5. ByteDance’s Doubao launched a professional subscription service at RMB 68 per month, reflecting a shift in China’s AI industry from free expansion to tiered monetization.

Geopolitics

1. Iran and the U.S. agreed to stop attacking each other and plan to meet on Tuesday in Qatar, focusing on the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices rose at one point on this development.

2. Russian President Putin suggested that both Russia and Ukraine stop striking the other side’s deep territorial targets, or Russia would increase the intensity of its strikes. Ukraine has increased attacks on Russian defense factories and refineries.

3. Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office said it has destroyed Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure in Lebanon and notified the U.S. in advance. In Tel Aviv, the railway station entered a heightened security alert after suspicions that a bomb-carrying car could enter.

4. The number of deaths in a strong earthquake in Venezuela rose to 1,450, with 3,150 injured. Eight Chinese citizens have died, and one is missing.

5. Pakistan carried out ground operations on the Afghan border, killing 29 armed militants in response to the Karachi attack.

Stock Markets and Company Developments

1. Wall Street warned that U.S. stocks’ “AI trading” has developed cracks. Technology funds recorded a record net outflow of $9.3 billion, and the market may shift toward a risk-off mode.

2. Broker financing momentum continues to accelerate. Within the year, 61 brokerages have cumulatively issued 521 bonds, with total规模 exceeding RMB 1.22 trillion—up more than 131% year over year.

3. Broker mergers and restructuring are heating up. Examples such as CICC’s “three-in-one” approach and Dong Wu Securities’ acquisition of Donghai Securities are advancing, with industry consolidation shifting toward deeper coordination.

4. Nineteen A-share listed companies released forecasts for first-half performance. Multiple firms including Hengyi Petrochemical and Satellite Chemical are expected to see year-over-year net profit growth of more than 100%.

5. Samsung and SK Group are expected to announce investment plans totaling as much as 200 quadrillion won (about $13 billion) over the next decade, focusing on building semiconductor plants in Gwangju.

Market sentiment summary: Geopolitical tensions are easing while inflation pressure persists. The crypto market is under strain as liquidity tightens. AI capital expenditures remain high, but the path to commercialization still carries uncertainty. Overall, the market is leaning toward cautious risk-off positioning—watching developments in the Iran-U.S. talks and signals from the Fed’s interest-rate path.