Scientist Kepler

The numbers don't lie. $XRP bled 14% through February, and that kind of damage doesn't heal overnight. Short-term traders are staring down a potential slide to $1.0 over the next one to four weeks, and honestly, the chart agrees with them.
But zoom out a bit and the picture shifts dramatically.

What's Keeping Bulls Alive
Two words: legislation and ETFs. The Market Structure Bill making its way through Congress has injected real optimism into XRP's medium-term thesis. Pair that with growing institutional appetite through XRP-spot ETF filings, and you've got a recipe for recovery, just not immediately.
The medium-term window of four to eight weeks points toward $2.5. Stretch that to eight through twelve weeks, and $3.0 comes into focus. These aren't random numbers either. They're anchored to tangible catalysts that either play out or they don't.
What Could Go Wrong
Plenty. A hawkish Bank of Japan raising its neutral rate toward 1.5% or higher could trigger another yen carry trade unwind, flashbacks to mid-2024 nobody wants. Soft US economic data feeding recession fears would pull risk assets down across the board. Political gridlock stalling the Market Structure Bill kills a core bullish catalyst. And if XRP-spot ETFs start bleeding outflows instead of attracting capital, that medium-term thesis crumbles fast.
Any combination of these sends XRP back toward $1.0 and potentially the $0.77 zone.

Reading the Chart
After dropping 2.58% on February 10 to close near $1.40, XRP sits firmly beneath both its 50-day EMA at $1.80 and 200-day EMA around $2.18. That's bearish structure, plain and simple.
Recovery requires clearing $1.50 first, that opens the door to the 50-day EMA. Push through that, and the 200-day EMA becomes the next battleground. Only a sustained breakout above both moving averages flips the trend convincingly bullish.
On the downside, losing the lower trendline exposes the February 6 low near $1.12. Below that, $1.0 is the last line of defense before things get ugly.
The Bigger Picture
Fed policy direction matters enormously here. A dovish pivot with rate cuts on the horizon would lift sentiment across crypto. A cooperative BoJ keeping its neutral rate closer to 1% helps too, it keeps the carry trade stable and risk appetite healthy.
If the stars align, Market Structure Bill passes the Senate, ETF inflows accelerate, and macro conditions cooperate, XRP doesn't just hit $3.0. It challenges its all-time high of $3.66. Break that ceiling and the six to twelve month target of $5 enters the conversation.
Right now though, patience matters more than conviction. The bearish structure is intact, and fighting the trend rarely pays. Watch $1.50 on the upside and $1.0 on the downside, those are your signals for what comes next.
#XRP
#CPIWatch
#CZAMAonBinanceSquare
#USNFPBlowout

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